Mr. Speaker, I would like to inform you that I will be sharing my time with my colleague, the hon. member for Drummond, and that all of the other members of the Bloc Quebecois will also be sharing their time.
It is my pleasure to speak in this take note debate today regarding the budget that the Minister of Finance will be bringing down.
We would have liked to have had this debate earlier, since there have been clear signs of an economic downturn since September 11, and even earlier. This downturn has been exacerbated by the events of September 11 but it was already apparent several months beforehand.
We have been calling on the finance minister to intervene in support of the economy since October 3. He has the means, as I will explain later in my speech.
First, I would like to begin with a comment. If it can be said that anger does not help us think rationally, then the same can be said for excessive fear. When I hear the Minister of Finance say that nothing will ever be the same since September 11, obviously, security is the first priority, but there is more to it than that. By focusing on this aspect, the government is putting off other decisions that a responsible government must take.
Let me say from the outset that I accuse the Minister of Finance of contributing to the economic slowdown through his statements, his pessimism and his inaction. When he says that we did not have surpluses during the current fiscal year and that he cannot afford to make massive investments, he is deceiving consumers and making them much more cautious in their spending.
One of the reasons for this economic slowdown, if not this recession, is the consumers' unwillingness to spend. When the Minister of Finance keeps saying that things are bad everywhere, thus contributing to the economic slowdown, it can only make consumers put their spending on hold.
The Minister of Finance is also responsible for the economic slowdown because of his inaction. He should have taken action long before his upcoming budget. He could and still can act to support the economy and employment but he is not doing it.
What are these means? We are too used to seeing the minister fibbing every year when he says “Listen, we must be careful, there will not be any surpluses”. In the last fiscal year the government ended up with surpluses totalling $17 billion.
By not telling the truth on the actual surpluses, the minister avoids debates in the House and among the public on the use of these surpluses. Then, a few months before March 31, which is the end of the fiscal year, he no longer has any choice and must use all the surpluses that he deliberately overlooked, even though he knew full well that they existed, to reduce the debt.
We have nothing against paying off the debt but this government must deal with other priorities, and while security is important, so is people's economic well-being.
We did calculations regarding the evolution of public finances, as we have been doing for the past seven years, particularly for the past five years where there have been surpluses. This year, while a recession, which is a negative growth of the GDP in real terms, is likely over the next six months, there will still be a $13.6 billion surplus. This is the most conservative scenario. With a negative growth of less than 2% of the GDP over the next six months, we arrive at $13 billion.
The Minister of Finance can do something. He has the means. We are not asking him to return to a deficit situation, we hate deficits more than any other party in parliament. We even presented a bill on balanced budgets three years ago and the Minister of Finance rejected it. He rejected a bill opposing deficits. We detest deficits much more than they do.
We want a realistic plan that would use $5 billion of the $13 billion surplus expected in the present fiscal year to support the economy and jobs in order to guarantee the economic security of Quebecers and Canadians. This would also ensure that the slowdown, however deep it may be, would not turn into a deep and protracted recession. It would seem that the minister has forgotten the multiplier effect of a dollar invested in the economy and its effect on employment and tax revenues. We can support the economy.
This $5 billion plan we are proposing to the Minister of Finance includes the following. First, we want, and it is not costly, SMBs, which are currently suffering from the economic slowdown and need a breath of air, to enjoy a little relief from provisional instalments, that is the taxes they will have to pay in the coming months. We are asking that the instalments be put off for six months. This would cost almost nothing, $50 million, but it would be so effective right now that even the Chamber of Commerce and the Canadian Federation of Independent Business support this sort of measure.
We are also calling for some relief in contributions to the employment insurance plan. We can afford this too. There is a surplus of $6 billion or $7 billion in this fund. These two measures would inject nearly $2 billion into the economy.
We are also calling for—and this can be readily done to support workers facing the economic slowdown—the Employment Insurance Act to be amended. There is consensus in the Standing Committee on Human Resources Development on increasing benefit coverage for young people, women and regions hit with high unemployment.
One does not have to be a genius to realize that, in addition to the economic slowdown, there is restructuring in certain resource regions. These are calling for more extensive government intervention, at the cost of $1 billion.
We are also calling for another billion to help the tourism and aiarcraft industries, the most heavily hit by the economic downturn, which has been exacerbated since September 11. One billion dollars is being requested.
Last, we are calling for an acceleration—if this government can possibly grasp the concept—of investments that would have been made anyway during this fiscal year, for instance funding for social housing, within the infrastructures program.
Taking $5 billion of the forecasted $13 billion surplus for this year still leaves $8 billion. Part of that amount the Minister of Finance can reserve for security because we do not know what is around the corner. He can also show some open-mindedness in the next budget.
There are provinces suffering at this time because they have obligations toward their population as far as health and education are concerned. They are short of money.
Every year there will be a structural surplus in the coffers of the federal government. Would there be any way of having a meeting, a real federal-provincial meeting, on sharing taxation resources? There were such meetings in the sixties, seventies and eighties. Why is there such a closed mind about tax base redistribution? The needs are in the provinces and in Quebec as far as health and education are concerned, while the taxation resources are here. Surplus funds are accumulating year after year and this will not change, even after the recent events we are having to cope with.
What we are calling for is something very simple: for the government to realize that there are two kinds of security, one Security with a capital S and the other economic security. It is rather awful to experience feelings of insecurity because of the terrorist threat and at the same time to have to deal with economic insecurity because we cannot predict what the outcome of the economic slowdown will be on our lives and on our jobs.
We are asking the government to intervene. It has the means. We are asking it to use $5 billion of the $13 billion surplus expected for this year. We are asking it to permanently avoid deficits, forgetting of course that it was the Liberals who created the first deficits and who have a way with spending that is not always efficient or effective.
We do not want a deficit but we would like the Minister of Finance to get moving, to stop being so pessimistic about a balanced budget and to stop talking about the deficit. Such comments are not relevant this year. There will not be any deficit. The most skeptical outlook forecasts a surplus of $12 or $13 billion. So he should hold the rhetoric.
In the past, we heard about extreme caution. The Minister of Finance has lost so much credibility when it comes to his forecasts that he can no longer show his face. Today, the focus is on security. I am all for security. The terrorist threat is real but we also need to think about and look after people's economic security.
For this next budget, we expect the Minister of Finance to have understood this message and to have come up with a plan to stabilize the economy and employment. Since October 3, we have been offering him concrete suggestions to help him do this. He must consider security, but he must also consider peoples' economic security which is also important.