Mr. Speaker, as usual, the parliamentary secretary is extremely cynical, and his words are verging on demagoguery and insult.
What I have here in my hands is a calculator. If our Liberal colleague were less lazy, he would take his out, as he did when an economist for the Royal Bank—and a little more objective then than he is now—and would do his calculations as we do, according to the economic growth forecasts by the major Canadian banks and financial institutions, the Desjardins movement, the Caisse de dépôt et de placement du Québec, the Royal Bank, the Toronto-Dominion Bank and so on. We come up with the same figures as the Minister of Finance for the growth of the GDP over the next few years.
However, while making use of the economists' hypotheses—we are intelligent enough here to do some calculations and use some non-partisan discernment—we also use this little thing I showed, called a calculator, and look at the government's funds coming in and going out, the month-by-month expenditures, and formulate certain hypotheses.
I would remind my cynical colleague that, every year for the past five, we have called a press conference to release our estimates of the surplus, six months or often even a year before the Minister of Finance releases his, or before the end-of-year surplus is announced. In five years, we have been out a total of $3 billion, while the Minister of Finance has, particularly since 1995, been $60 billion out in his predictions.
So, why should the public believe us instead of the Minister of Finance? Because they have been deceived by the Minister of Finance for the past five years. For five years, the Minister of Finance has made some unbelievable errors in calculation. For five years, the Minister of Finance has been concealing surpluses. Why now should they favour the transfer of tax points to the government of Quebec?
I can see why he is no longer with the Royal Bank. Because economic analysis is not his strong suit. Once tax points have changed hands, they no longer belong to the one who has handed them over. It is like selling a house; it is no longer yours once you have sold it. The tax points from the 1960s and 1970s for funding health care, education and so on were handed over to the government of Quebec.
If the hon. member wants these points to be taken into account, let us also take into account the tax points that the province gave to the federal government for the war effort, when it gave up its direct taxation field. If the hon. member takes into account the tax points given by both sides, he will be surprised to see how much the federal government owes to Quebec.
Why are we in favour of transforming federal cash transfers into tax points for the Quebec government? For two reasons. First, to protect ourselves against the political decisions and drastic cuts that the Minister of Finance has been imposing since 1995 in the Canada social transfer.
Second, we want the transfer of tax points for personal income tax, because it will grow in the coming years. It has been growing at an annual rate of 6% of federal revenues over the past four years. These are two good reasons.
The third reason is that even a federalist such as the leader of the Quebec Liberal Party is in favour of a transfer of tax points. There is a consensus on this issue in Quebec. The hon. member should know that, since he lived in Quebec for a long time. But it is true that, at some point, partisanship made him forget everything, including his past, his analysis and his qualifications as an economist.
Why should we favour a transfer of tax points? It is for these three main reasons. There may be a fourth reason, which is that we are convinced that the needs are in Quebec. The needs are in the Canadian provinces. These are urgent needs in areas such as health and education. This government does not have the brains to realize it. The budget it delivered yesterday shows without a doubt that it does not have a clue as to what people's priorities are.