Mr. Speaker, it is no great feat to have forecast reality, because we have come pretty close to the right figure by using known and public figures, even those of the Minister of Finance.
If he has not done the same, then, it is because he has done a poor job, either out of incompetence or lack of transparency, or because he was trying to be astute, as I said earlier. He likes not forecasting a surplus; then he can decide on his own what to do with the money.
The expression fiscal strangulation is no exaggeration. We find ourselves in a situation—no joke here—in which the federal government's financial situation is going to be really flourishing. We are talking of $70 billion minimum over four years.
Those who find this an exaggeration have always said the same thing when we presented our estimates “It's an exaggeration, it makes no sense”. Yet we have always been dead on. There is, therefore, no exaggeration here and we have consulted many experts. We did not consult certain economists, not the friends of the Minister of Finance; we consulted all forecasting organizations. We were objective.
We are talking about fiscal strangulation in connection with needs. For instance, health needs are increasing in the provinces. In Quebec alone there will be a 5% rise. We are talking billions of dollars. The billions of dollars of surplus will pile up in the federal coffers while the health needs in Quebec and in the provinces will be very great.
These needs must be met; they are the needs of the population. Yes, there is fiscal strangulation going on. The present situation is a dramatic one. There has been an increase in initiatives in areas of jurisdiction that belong to Quebec, such as health and education, which do not take into account the needs of the public and the government of Quebec's policy in these two sectors in particular, where it spends more than the federal government. We are talking about $1 for every 14 cents in the health sector, and $1 for every 8 cents in the education sector.
The federal government is meddling in other areas, which have not been identified as fundamental needs by the government of Quebec. What does this mean? It means that the federal government is not making good use of our money. There are no two ways about it. So how are we to reconcile these two visions, Canada's and Quebec's? We are making an attempt. We are introducing a motion which says “Sit down with the premiers of Quebec and the provinces. Talk about rebalancing fiscal resources, but on the basis of the real numbers. Let us have no more of the Minister of Finance's nonsense, with estimates that are off by 140% to 400%. We want the real numbers”.
Everyone has the real numbers now anyway, because everyone is capable of taking a calculator, as I did with some of my colleagues, and doing the math. Even with the worst scenarios, the surplus will grow to $70 billion over the next four years.
This money does not belong to the Minister of Finance, nor does it belong to the member for Saint-Maurice. It belongs to taxpayers, whose needs are in areas such as health, education, income security and so forth, areas which should reflect the public's interest, not the leadership aspirations of the Minister of Finance.