Mr. Speaker, I am thankful for this opportunity to engage in this important debate.
It seems to me that the starting point of any debate should be, what is the available evidence and does that evidence disclose a threat to our own peace and security? If the evidence discloses that there is no appreciable threat to our peace and security, then why would we engage in hostilities? If, however, the evidence does disclose a risk, we may or may not wish to enter into hostilities based upon the analysis of the evidence of the risk.
I made a point of reading Prime Minister Blair's document. It is well argued and an intelligent and cogent document, but I must admit that it was somewhat muddy. The material in it was open to all kinds of interpretations, not necessarily the interpretation that the Prime Minister would like to put upon it.
That is, I am afraid, what we are dealing with in the public domain. Namely, we are left with speculation, hearsay, gossip and conjecture which, frankly, no rational jurist would admit, let alone consider as evidence in any kind of low level criminal case. There is an enormous difference between what we would consider to be evidence and what is intelligence.
Not only was the material put forward somewhat dubious--I want to correct myself in that I do not want to criticize Prime Minister Blair's material as dubious--but the media material was somewhat dubious. Our difficulty is that virtually none of our intelligence is self-generated. Regrettably, we end up relying on Americans and sometimes the British for our information. While they are fine people and helpful to us, I would be somewhat skeptical, however, that it does not go through an American or British filter. That filter may or may not coincide with our own.
The first point I want to make is that intelligence is not evidence. Evidence, such as it is, is not independently verifiable and that is the nature of the beast. It is source driven and somewhat filtered by those who create it. Necessarily, in the public domain the evidence is somewhat limited. Based upon the foregoing, we are then invited to go to war by the Bush administration.
There is not a person in the House of Commons who has any serious understanding of the intelligence or evidence, as one may call it, other than those like myself who have read it second or third hand in the media fed by certain sources. It does not sound like an overly rational reason for going to engage in hostilities.
My second point concerns the war on terrorism or the so-called war on terrorism. It appears to have no limits. Even allowing that the western world and the U.S. in particular had every right to strike back at al-Qaeda, surely Canadians have the right to know why the original war on terrorism must now spread to Iraq. The results to date have been somewhat less than outstanding.
So far only about 8 out of the 25 al-Qaeda people have been captured or killed. There is no evidence or intelligence that either bin Laden or Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri has either been killed or captured. In fact there is some evidence that al-Zawahiri was allowed to escape through either the bungling or corruption of our Afghani surrogates. There is no evidence that they are hiding out in Iraq. Rather, the evidence points to Pakistan and Indonesia and some lawless points between Iran and Afghanistan.
Not having done the job in Afghanistan, President Bush wants to further destabilize the region by chasing down weapons of mass destruction in another country while leaving conditions for breeding terror untouched in Afghanistan. We appear to be awfully good at bombing people from five miles up, but not really interested in doing the heavy lifting required to take Afghanistan out of the Dark Ages and point it toward democracy and the rule of law. It would be interesting to compare the costs of waging war with the costs of waging peace.
Every time we in the west invade a country we get sucked into the rhetoric of free the peace loving people of Afghanistan, of Iraq or whatever. Five years later we are still not out of Bosnia or Kosovo. It is utter hypocritical nonsense. We spend billions making war in Afghanistan and spend virtually nothing on what is needed to get Afghanistan going in the direction of peace, stability and prosperity.
Point number two is that not having done the job in Afghanistan we now propose invading another country while convincing ourselves of our own generosity.
The third point is that invading Iraq is counterproductive to the so-called war on terrorism. Going around the region making enemies of those very countries that we may need as allies in order to prosecute the war against al-Qaeda and terrorist entities is just plain dumb.
So far Pakistan has been an ally. That is based, frankly, on a number of huge incentives to Musharraf and his government. There has been some cooperation, but invading Iraq will be likely seen as an attack on Islam. Hussein will play that card for all it is worth and Musharraf will have to deal with an enormous constituency which sympathizes with the al-Qaeda and which will inevitably put pressure on him.
Never mind that this group confuses Islam and Islamism, a particularly nasty and fascist form of Islam, what truly is worrisome is that while the U.S. is on its little venture in Iraq, Pakistan could be destabilized and the al-Qaeda, or versions thereof, could actually seize weapons of mass destruction. Never mind the pathetic efforts of Mr. Hussein to try to manufacture weapons of mass destruction, as set out in Mr. Blair's report, rather, we should be really worried that there is access to a country that actually has built and can deliver weapons of mass destruction.
It is frequently said that the U.S. is the only remaining superpower. However even the only remaining superpower cannot bomb everyone and everything.
Saddam is crazy but removing him from power only opens up all kinds of other problems. The Kurds will feel more aggressive against Turkey and Iran. The Shiite Muslims in the south of Iraq will want to assert themselves against the Sunni majority. The House of Saud, another nasty and corrupt regime, will have certain elements of its society emboldened. Iran may see this incursion as an opportunity to join forces with its Shia brethren.
Even the world's only remaining superpower does not have the resources to cope with all the forces that would be unleashed by a successful invasion, a successful regime change and a successful winding up of weapons of mass destruction. Success will be very difficult to measure and will be a long time coming, even if it is a short war.
As the Chinese proverb goes, “Be careful for what you wish for because you might get it”.
In some ways the worst thing that could happen is a successful invasion. Not only do we unleash the unknown but we also create an environment for some ironical results, such as creation of new al-Qaeda cells in areas in which we cannot pay attention.
Finally, I want to comment upon the back and forth of UN resolutions. This strikes me as a giant smokescreen. It is good that the U.S. seeks a multilateral UN-driven approach. I would like to think that Canada had something to do with that. However let us be candid here. Hussein has no interest in UN resolutions and will only agree or disagree as it suits him.
Similarly, the U.S. has very little interest in UN resolutions and if Iraq shows any willingness to comply then the U.S. will simply up the ante.
The U.S. wants a regime change, pure and simple, and it wants it by any means. Apparently it is not overly fussy about what means it might use. It leaves countries like Canada in a strange and difficult position. I hope the U.S. will reconsider its recent comments about assassination as a means of regime change.
Iraq has been an unstable, complex country for a long time. The evidence does not support an invasion, the consequences, both short and long term, are unknowable and the results may actually expand the war on terrorism rather than narrow it.
It is always a good idea in sports to keep one's eye on the ball; the same is true in war.
The issue is terrorism and its ability to project itself into the west. Canada should not participate even if the U.S. tortures the United Nations into sanctioning an invasion.