Obviously the member does not know the difference between a plant and an animal. I will tell him about that in another lesson on another day. The member has a long way to go before we get there.
People ask how we will stop our carbon use. Obviously when we go through this plan we will find that the government is saying that we need to cut our CO
2
release by 20% per person, by about one tonne per person per year. We need to ask what that means.
I refer again to Hamilton because the results were so startling yesterday. I talked about CO
2
and where it came from, the government's plan to have smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles and that sort of thing. A guy jumped up and said he worked at the Windstar factory which I think is in Oakville. He said what I was saying would affect his job.
Will the manufacturing plant downsize and make smaller vehicles to fit the Kyoto target? It is not likely if its major market is the U.S. Remember that we are a very small market. What may happen to those jobs? They may well move somewhere else. All of a sudden the light bulb came on. He said that would affect him. Yes, it will affect every Canadian.
I was driving 120 km on Highway 401 and everybody else was driving 130 km or 140 km. Everybody was passing me. I looked at those people in the eye and thought, do they know that they will have to slow down or take the train? I do not think they understand that.
The government has not communicated with people about Kyoto. People have no idea that they are going to be affected like that.
I listen to the Europeans talk at some of these meetings. They say we pay 72¢ for a litre of gas. Mind you, that is in Alberta; here it is 66¢ or 62¢. I cannot quite figure that out. I should ask the Minister of Transport why gas is always cheaper here than it is in the place from where it comes, but that is another issue totally.
The Europeans say we should pay $2.50 a litre for gas and that is how we will reduce consumption and change the habits of people. That may be fine in Europe. It may be fine where people can take a train, where there is a train, but there are not many trains in most parts of Canada. It is a big country compared to Europe. It is a big country compared to France, Italy and Germany. We cannot draw the same conclusions that the Europeans draw for this sort of thing.
When we talk about these polls, 78% of people believe that the federal government needs to spend more time investigating the cost and impact of the accord before implementing it. A recent poll says that 78% of Canadians think more work has to be done before this thing is ratified and 71% say it is possible to have a made in Canada solution that would cost the economy a lot less.
That really comes down to Canadians saying that rather than send $1 billion to Russia to buy credits, would it not be better to spend $1 billion in Canada on research and development to become leaders in fuel cells, windmills, or whatever type of high tech we are going toward. The use of hydrogen fuel will be where we are going. At this point, we are not leaders in that area because we do not have a government commitment.
Canadians are beginning to say we will bankrupt the country. We will not have money to put into research and development and a lot of those companies will simply leave in disgust because of the way the government is handling the file.
When we look at this, the support is falling rapidly. If we wonder why the government is speeding things through, we should look at Saturday's Globe and Mail . The headline was “Kyoto support dips as ratification nears”. That is exactly what the government is worried about. It is worried that the longer it holds off on this and the more Canadians find out, the better the chance that they would defeat it. It is just like the Charlottetown accord. The fact that the government is hiding it from Canadians, it is pretty obvious what is happening.
When it comes to the polling that the Liberals do and they use our money to do so, they will get quite a surprise. Canadians will get a surprise when they realize who will really be paying for an awful lot of these things. That will be a huge surprise to them, because certainly the Liberals have not indicated that will be the case.
Let us look at how the plan came about. There was a supply day on October 24. Is it not amazing that on that morning we got a call telling us there would be a briefing for Liberal MPs at 8:30 and for opposition MPs at 9:30. Our briefing started at about 9:40. The Liberal briefing was ahead of that. Is it not amazing that is when the plan came out? It came out the very day that we had our supply day.
If we look at the facts, I think the photocopiers were pretty busy that night. I think a lot of bureaucrats had to work all night putting together the plan, the powder puff, PowerPoint presentation. They had to put that thing together. As we will see tomorrow when we look at the plan, there are some really big holes in it. There are some really stupid statements in that report. Obviously somebody who did not understand anything about science, climate change or any of those issues, had to come up with some of those ridiculous ideas.
I will start with the first draft, the climate change draft plan. I am afraid I will not be able to get through all of it today. I will probably start again tomorrow to refresh everybody's memory so they know where we are.
Let us start off with the general points that are made in the first part. The first statement is that the science is clear. I think we would find a lot of argument among the 17,000 scientists. The many scientists who are now responding to Kyoto would say the science is not clear, that the science is at least 10 years away.
I want to talk a fair amount later on. Of course I know that most members would like me to read into the record, Bjørn Lomborg's The Skeptical Environmentalist. I am sure hon. members would like me to read all of it, but I will just read selected parts of it into the record in a few days.
Let us talk about the science. The government said on the first page, “The science is clear”. I am saying there are a lot of scientists who would disagree with that. Then it says that we can establish a competitive edge by joining the rest of the industrial world, even if the U.S. is not part of Kyoto. I think that is a huge underestimation of the importance of the U.S. market in Canada.
It says that we can just move ahead and ignore the U.S. Well we are not only going to ignore the U.S., we are going to ignore the Americas. We are going to ignore our NAFTA partners like Mexico; we are going to ignore Chile, Argentina and Brazil, all countries that we trade with. We are saying that we can trade with the good guys that sign onto Kyoto.
Let us look at who those good guys are. When we examine who they are and we look at the percentage of our trade with those countries, we know we have some big problems. If 85% to 90% of our trade is with the U.S., how can we make the statement that we can establish a competitive edge by joining the rest of the industrialized world? What kind of a comment is that? Remember that China, the number two producer of CO
2
, and India, the number five producer of CO
2
, are not part of this. That makes a pretty big difference.
Let us go on to the next statement. It says that the U.S. may join Kyoto in future and already we will be far ahead of the Americans. The problem is that the Americans are doing something. There are 39 states that actually are going to reach Kyoto targets and better. We have our heads in the sand. We are going to be at 35% more emissions than 1990 and 39 of the American states are going to beat the Kyoto target. We are going to have a competitive advantage over them because we are going to slash 35% of our production? I do not understand the logic of that, yet that is a statement from the power point presentation.
It says that modelling suggests cost impacts will be modest and costs will be offset by investments in technology and other advancements of doing business in Canada, like livable cities, exchange rates and social services. How long have we been trotting out that little thing, that our health care system is the best?
The World Health Organization rated us 30th. We are 30th in the world for health care and we are trotting out that our social services are better than everywhere else. I do not think Mr. Romanow is going to say that on Thursday and that is the government's own report. I do not think our big cities are any more livable than some of the cities in some of the other parts of the world. That is having one's head in the sand and not even knowing it is there.
It says that innovation and technology are the keys to growing the economy while reducing emissions. Boy is that ever true, but when we start buying emissions credits and penalizing business to get them down to this artificial target, how are we going to have the money for innovation and technology?
We are getting the idea from these statements. The government will have to raise taxes. The money has to come from somewhere. Will that make us more productive? I question it.
It says that we must ensure a strong overall investment climate. Let us examine that. Right now we are suffering an investment freeze. EnCana is taking $100 million out of its fourth quarter and putting it into Venezuela. Petro-Canada and all kinds of other companies are holding off on development. We have fourth quarter slowdown in all kinds of industry in this country because of the uncertainty of Kyoto, and it says that we must ensure a strong overall investment climate. We are doing just the opposite. We are creating an investment freeze in this country.
It says that the government has held extensive consultations. I have talked about those consultations. I do not know where they have gone on because Canadians do not feel they have been consulted. Provinces do not feel they have been adequately consulted. The manufacturers right here in Ontario do not feel they have been consulted. The government has held those consultations behind closed doors.
It says that the fundamental approach is national engagement. I am reading from the report. Canadians are just starting to get engaged and are finding out what this is about.
It talks about a made in Canada plan, evergreen, step by step in partnership. I cannot help but think of that Viagra ad, with the minister jumping over his white picket fence and Canadians jumping all around him. Canadians are not there yet. They are not part of this.
It says there would be no undue burden on any sector or region. How many times have we heard that? Tell me that the manufacturing sector, the oil and gas industry and the power plants would not be affected.
Members should recall that over 50% of the energy produced in Canada comes from coal. Coal is the dirtiest producer of CO
2
. It produces more CO
2
, and we are 50% dependent on it. What would we do, shut down the coal plants? If we do, what would we replace them with? We could ask Mr. Suzuki if he wants a nuclear power plant in every backyard? Is that the source of energy? It does not produce CO
2
. I do not think that is a solution.
It talks about adequate and prudent funding. I do not know what that means so I cannot interpret what that is. Funding for what, for whom and from where?
It talks about open process, concrete timelines and no surprises. These are general points of this so-called plan. We will have no surprises. We will know everything. Canadians will know all the costs. I do not know because a lot has to happen in the next few days for that claim to come through.
It says that Canadian participation is necessary for credibility of the protocol. That is putting one's hand right over one's heart and saying, “Right on, guys. You really have it.” Lots of talk, but no action.
It talks about credit for clean energy exports. We must work on energy exports and clean energy credits. This is the best one of all, probably. We are asking the Europeans to give us credit for selling our clean energy to the U.S. We sell lots of gas to the U.S. We are saying to the Europeans to give us at least x number of megatonnes credit for that. But where do the Europeans get their gas from? They get their gas almost exclusively from Russia. If they agree to clean energy credits for Canada, they would have to give Russia clean energy credits for the gas that it sells. Russia already has credits. Why would the Europeans ever agree to give it more? Because they would have to buy them from Russia. Mr. Putin made it clear that he wanted billions of dollars. He did not want millions, he wanted billions of dollars for his clean energy credits.
We send coal to Japan. Are those negative credits because we sell coal to somebody? I guess if we take it all fair and square we would get negative credits. I suppose that is what that means.
It says we need large adjustments through many pragmatic steps. It was getting late as we got through these things and probably whoever thought up these points was getting fairly tired at this point.
The next part of this document goes on to modelling and it talks about how these models work. I am really kind of lucky because I have a daughter who does modelling. She just finished a project with the German government. She is now working in the Netherlands. She designs computer programs and models. Her last project was to design a model for the German government for what the German social requirements would be in the year 2055. That was the model that she designed. She showed it to me. I could not understand a single word of it, but that is modelling.
I asked her about the modelling that the IPCC was using. I asked her to read that section on modelling. In modelling, it depends what one puts in as to what one gets out. This plan says that the overall economic impact would be modest.
That sounds good, but that is because the model used 3¢ per barrel of oil and $10 a tonne for buying emissions credits. Right now it is at $38 but $10 was used in the model.
It says that when this emissions trading begins in the European Union on January 1, it is estimated the price would escalate. The Canadian government says if the Americans are not there the price would not get too high. If the Americans are in, it would be $500. If the Americans are not in, it would be less than $100. However, in the model $10 and 3¢ are used. How accurate is the model? Sure it could say that the economic impact would be modest. Obviously if we were to put in modest numbers we would get modest results, but that is not the reality.
It says the impacts would be balanced across all sectors and regions. How in blazes would that happen? There has been no sector by sector plan. For us to understand that statement we would have to know how much we would penalize each sector: the oil and gas industry, the manufacturers and the automobile industry? How much would each sector have to pay for these credits? That is the only way we could have an accurate model.
It says that the variation in impacts would be small relative to the accuracy of the overall modelling. When we talk about modelling and the 40 models that the IPCC has, these impacts could be very great, particularly economic impacts and what they might mean. Models are only as good as what we put into them and only as accurate as the figures and input items.
It talks about investment and new markets. The Canadian government puts a lot of store in the fact that we would have all these new markets and technology. That is all well and good and I am sure we have Canadian entrepreneurs who would benefit from Kyoto, but the real question is who has the leadership today? We would find, if we looked at Denmark, Germany, or the U.S., that they are leaders in this technology. They started working on it in 1992, after the real conference.
Some of those entrepreneurs said, “There is money to be made here. Let's get in on that”. They developed a phenomenal number of windmills and all kinds of alternate technologies. Canada is not a leader in that area and will not have the jobs there. We have 10 years to catch up before we can do that.
It says that Canadian companies can take the lead in several fields of technology. It does not point out what those are. I guess again that it is kind of a we are going to be leaders in something statement.
It says that investments in leading edge, capital stock, and state of the art technology is key to competitiveness. Is that ever true? However, we have not done that. We have not been investing nor encouraging the development of that technology.
It talks about fair and competitive tax treatment, strategic investments in critical technology and long term technological approach. Translated that says we must have a fair and competitive tax system. Fair and competitive to whom? I believe fair and competitive to our number one competition, the United States.
The United States will not be part of Kyoto. It will develop it on an incentive basis. It is putting $4.6 billion into fuel cell research. What is Canada doing? We are putting $7 million over 10 years into research and development. What will that develop?
It is fine to say that we will have fair and competitive tax treatment and we will have strategic investment in critical technology. Who is investing? We are behind. We needed to start this in 1992 and we did not. We sat on our hands and did nothing.
Risk management is the next topic. “We will work with industry to reduce uncertainties, limit risks and impact on competitiveness”. I guess that means the Canadian manufacturers, the group of industries that have come together as part of a coalition, the oil and gas industry, the chambers of commerce across Canada are saying no to Kyoto and this is saying that we will work with industry to reduce uncertainties, limit risk and impact on competitiveness. Those are fine words. The problem is that is not being done.
“We'll build in contingencies to limit risk of measures”. Does that mean the government will provide guaranteed loans to any industry that wants to develop an innovative project? That might be fine, but the problem is who pays for that. Where does that money come from? Do we take it out of health care? Do we take it out of agriculture? What do we take it out of? Perhaps we could take it out of some of the government waste and boondoggles in this place.
“We will work in conjunction with the U.S.” That is the next item. I am pretty sure calling the President a moron will really help us to work with the U.S. I am sure that makes us really popular in that community. How would we like it if we heard politicians from other countries calling our Prime Minister something? I would defend him. We are in Canada. It is fine for the Americans to call their President something, but it is not for us. That is sure not going to help.
“We will keep open Canada's long term undertaking under the protocol. No commitments for the second commitment period”. Let us talk about that for a minute. We will not commit to the second period. We will only commit to the first. The first is from 2008 to 2012. The next period is 2012 onward. The problem with this whole thing is that we will not be able to live up to our commitments. We will not be 6% below 1990 levels. It is impossible.
What are the penalties? It is fine for the members to say that there are no penalties. There are. When we go through the protocol, we will find a 30% penalty when a country does not achieve its commitment by 2012. Besides that, the Europeans will go to the WTO to impose other penalties on countries that do not ratify Kyoto. That is to go directly after the Americans but we get caught in the crossfire because we will not achieve our commitments either.
When the government talks about risk management, I do not think it understands what that means. There is a big risk in ratifying Kyoto and not living up to it. I have heard Liberals say that they will ratify it just like they have the other agreements. Let me quote the statement of the Auditor General which is very clear. In the 3 documents she went through, 200 binding international agreements have been signed by Canada in the last 10 years. She states:
The federal government is not investing enough—enough of its human and financial resources; its legislative, regulatory, and economic powers; or its political leadership—to fulfil its sustainable development commitments. The result is a growing environmental, health, and financial burden that our children will have to bear.
That is the record. She audited 60 of those 200 and we received a failing grade on those 60. If we think we will do that with Kyoto, we will pay the penalty. The penalties are clear: a 30% penalty in the year 2012 and we will have WTO restrictions put on our trade. That will not cost anyone anything? That will not cost our exporters anything? I think we had better examine this one pretty carefully.
Let us go on and examine this document. This is the first plan. We had another one which was a stapled photocopy. This is the actual PowerPoint copy. Let us see what we will do. Actions that are underway are 80 megatonnes. We have taken care of 80 megatonnes. Actions that we are planning for are 100 megatonnes. The third category is 60 megatonnes and we do not know how we will do that.
Tomorrow I will examine the 80 megatonnes and then I will examine the 100 megatonnes. God help us to figure out what the other 60 are. The government says that it will be clean energy credits from the U.S. We are not getting those. We can wait until hell freezes over and we will not get those. We can wait until the ninth ice age and we will not get those clean energy credits.