Mr. Speaker, I will be sharing my time with the member for Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia.
It gives me great pleasure to rise in the House today to speak on this issue of great importance, not only for us today but for generations to come. I wonder if there would have been so much debate on this issue if we were forced to be in this place during the long, abnormally hot summers that we now experience. I am sure that most of us would find it unbearable on several levels.
While some people say that the science is not there to support Kyoto, I say they should look out their window and ask themselves if the weather patterns are what they remember from when they were growing up. In my area of Erie--Lincoln, many of us did not even have air conditioning in the summer because we could enjoy the cool breezes coming off Lakes Erie and Ontario. I am sad to say that due to the long, hot, and humid summers that we now experience, the air conditioning business in our area has literally taken off.
We should ask ourselves how many people, especially young people, now have asthma, when it was almost unheard of when I was growing up. We can look at the Saguenay floods, the prairie drought, and the eastern Canada ice storm. Are these a sign of things to come? This is only in Canada. What about the natural catastrophes that are occurring all around the world?
I want to use the responses to the common questions that my Erie--Lincoln constituents posed to me as a basis for my remarks. Many of us, myself included, are not scientists and have difficulty assessing this plan based upon technical knowledge. It is like electricity or the Internet, we might not understand exactly how it works, but we know that it is a good thing.
My constituents have questions, like many other Canadians, about how this would affect them. Recently one of my chambers of commerce asked how the Kyoto protocol would affect jobs as well as taxes and the economy. The Government of Canada is working hard to predict what climate change, and our plan to fight it, would mean for our economy, our health and our environment. We must assess the costs and benefits of acting to stop climate change and weigh them against the consequences of doing nothing at all.
There have been various estimates on what ratifying the Kyoto protocol would mean for economic growth and employment in Canada. The most credible analysis comes from the analysis and modelling group, AMG, on the national climate change process. The AMG is comprised of officials from every province and territory. It consults widely with experts from industry, academia and the environmental community.
The most recent analysis by the AMG assumes that Canada would implement Kyoto using a mixture of targeted measures and market mechanisms like domestic emissions trading. Under this scenario Canada's economy would be 30.4% bigger in 2012, instead of 31%. Another way to say this is that Kyoto may result in about $7.2 billion in potential lost economic growth over the next 10 years, or about $24 per year per Canadian.
It is important to note that this economic analysis does not include several important considerations that would lower projected costs. For example, it does not consider the economic benefits of implementing a climate change policy. The dollar value of the additional health and environmental benefits of fighting climate change is estimated to be between $300 million and $500 million a year. There are some estimates that are even higher. In Ontario alone, the Ontario Medical Association estimates that air pollution causes the deaths of 1,900 people every year and a cost of $10 billion per year.
It is difficult for any economic model to capture the economic benefits of the technological growth that would result from companies innovating to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is therefore likely that the projected economic costs are over-estimated.
In considering the Kyoto protocol, the Liberal government must think about the cost of doing nothing. The AMG analysis does not include the cost of inaction, and yet the reason the Liberal government is committed to stopping climate change is because we are certain it would damage our health, environment and economy. The 1998 ice storm in eastern Canada was a dramatic demonstration of the kind of damage climate change could inflict. The ice storm left three million Canadians without power for varying periods and cost $5.4 billion.
All things considered, we are confident that the overall benefits to Canada, such as reduced smog, improved human health, and a more innovative and efficient economy would far outweigh any costs.
Some people are under the impression that the government is rushing to ratify Kyoto without informing and consulting Canadians, but this is not the case. In fact, we are doing the opposite.
Canada first agreed to the Kyoto protocol in December 1997, almost five years ago. Since then we have been working with the provinces and territories, with industry and academics, with environmental groups and with cities, to find solutions to climate change. We are working with our partners to bring these solutions together in a complete, made in Canada plan.
Just how much has the Government of Canada consulted? Canada's federal, provincial and territorial environment and energy ministers have met twice a year since 1997 to debate our climate change policy and decide what actions to take. Their officials have met regularly in between. These ministers established the national climate change process to examine the impacts and benefits of implementing the Kyoto protocol and to consult with Canadians.
The national climate change process has two main parts consisting of three working groups and 16 issue tables. These working groups and issue tables are comprised of more than 450 experts from different levels of government, industry, academia and non-governmental organizations. They have produced tens of thousands of pages of analysis and have spent thousands of hours in ministerial meetings, public consultations and technical workshops. Stakeholder meetings were held in every province and territory in 2000 and again in 2002.
Every sector of Canadian society has contributed to Canada's climate change policy. Our careful decision to ratify the Kyoto protocol is a result of these years of consultation and debate. The message we have heard is clear. As the effects of climate change become more severe, Canada, as the third largest per capita greenhouse gas emitter in the industrialized world, cannot afford to remain part of the problem. We must be part of the solution.
As a border community, many of my constituents have a very close working relationship with our friends in the United States and wonder why we are signing a deal that our largest trading partner, the United States, is refusing to ratify.
As of September 2002, 93 countries have ratified or acceded to the Kyoto protocol. Mexico, Japan, Great Britain and France have ratified. Russia is in the process of ratifying. While the Bush administration has signalled that it does not intend to ratify, it has launched its own global climate change initiative. State governments in the United States are far ahead of our provincial governments in Canada in implementing greenhouse gas reduction measures. Canadians risk making a huge mistake if they look only to the current position of the U.S. government to justify a decision not to ratify the Kyoto protocol.
Frankly, the United States is not a signatory to many international protocols and conventions concerning things like the protection of refugees, the rights of children, the International Criminal Court or the landmines treaty. I do not see this as a reason to automatically discount our own participation and our known policies on important international issues. Although we are friends with the United States we have the right and responsibility to take a different path when it is the right thing to do.
My chamber of commerce also asked, why would Canada commit to an unachievable target that also requires us to make payments to countries without targets?
How we address climate change may still be open to debate but not whether we address it. Canadians want action and we are committed to formulating a made in Canada contribution to the global climate change problem to meet our made in Canada Kyoto objectives. We are confident we would meet the objectives we negotiated.
There is nothing in the Kyoto protocol that requires Canada to make payments to countries without targets. However the protocol does allow Canada to work cooperatively with developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and get credit for doing so. Should we use these mechanisms the Liberal government is committed to investing primarily in projects that are consistent with our international development and trade promotion goals.
My constituents want to know what effort has the government made to create a best for Canada plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while protecting our economic prosperity?
We have been working on a best for Canada plan with the provinces and territories, with industry, academics and environmental groups, and with over 450 Canadian experts since 1997. The Kyoto protocol is part of Canada's made in Canada plan to fight climate change. We have a stake in having others take action to solve our Canadian problem and therefore we must do our share. Climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. The Kyoto protocol is the only internationally agreed framework for global action. A fundamental principle of Kyoto is that each country has to address the issue according to its own unique circumstances. This is precisely what we are doing.
International agreements reached on the details of the Kyoto protocol over the past year reflect Canada's priority that taking action on climate change must be both cost effective and environmentally credible. The result is an international agreement that strongly reflects Canadian interests.
Under the national climate change process we have been working with our partners across the country to develop a strategy that makes sense for Canada. The result of the work is presented in the federal discussion paper on Canada's contribution to addressing climate change released on May 15, 2002. It identifies at least 40 targeted measures we can take to reduce emissions by up to 175 megatonnes which could at least meet 70% of our Kyoto target. It outlines how to achieve further reductions through market based measures like domestic emissions trading and by working cooperatively with other countries under the Kyoto protocol. This is what a made in Canada plan looks like.
In conclusion, I want to comment briefly on Canada as an important world leader in this area. If we want the rest of the world to act responsibly and protect the environment, then we need to be part of a global agreement.
Developed under the auspices of the United Nations, the Kyoto protocol is the only internationally agreed upon framework for action. It is the beginning of an international regime to tackle the issue. It is a first step in the right direction.