Mr. Speaker, listening to the member, it is hard to believe that he trained as an economist and worked as one for the Royal Bank.
His analyses are unbelievably misleading, and contain major errors that would be unworthy even of a first year economics student at a CEGEP. It was not for nothing that he used to be an economic advisor to the Minister of Finance, one of the five or six economists consulted each year, who were out by 173% in what they told the Minister of Finance the surplus would be. What I have heard is unbelievable.
Does he know anything about trend analysis? This is what the Conference Board did. It did not take real surpluses and make projections. It gave the federal system every chance, saying: “Now, we will take the worst-case scenario”. Do you know what the worst-case scenario is? It is what the Minister of Finance forecast as a surplus for the first three years in his December budget. These are forecasts that were no good but the conference board took him at his word and said “This is how we will do it. We will even take away from the federal government the entire EI surplus”.
The conference board thought that the federal government would perhaps accept the chief actuary's recommendations that the surplus be eliminated by lowering premiums to $1.70. Their projections were based on overestimated expenditures, and underestimated revenues which have climbed to $90 billion in 20 years of federal government leeway, while every year the provinces are in the red. This is trend analysis—they are not real figures—it is a trend. If real figures had been used, it would have been much worse than $90 billion after 20 years.
The secretary of state says that analyses based on one year are good; under a year, even better; two years, risky; and, after three years, no good. I have just one question for him, but there are two parts to it. Two weeks from now, on March 31, at the end of the fiscal year, what will the federal government's surplus stand at?
Does he think it is right that in December, therefore, three months ago—these are accurate forecasts at three months, less risky—the Minister of Finance, whose forecasts are out an average of 173% every year and who is getting ready to make one that is out 500% this year, forecast a surplus of $1.5 billion for March 31? Is this reliable?