Mr. Speaker, tit for tat. If the member is no longer with the Royal Bank, if he was fired, it may be because he could not come up with any reasonable forecast. Let me put the question to him again.
If one year forecasts are reliable and two year forecasts are risky, then three month forecasts must be quite reliable. What does the member think about the surplus forecast for the year ending March 31, which the finance minister made last December? Three months ago, the minister estimated these surpluses at $1.5 billion, but the facts do not bear this out. Let me tell you what the reality is, not that I am a genius, but I can do the math. I take a calculator and I figure it out. For five years now, we on this side of the House have consistently not been wrong. Our forecasts are now being used by large institutions. Institutions not only from Quebec but from all over Canada call us to find out what the federal surpluses will be this year and next year.
Let me tell you what the reality is. Even with tax cuts, the security measures announced last December and the tax instalment payments deferred for six months, there will still be a $9 billion surplus come March 31 of this year.