Mr. Speaker, we have before us Bill C-54, the purpose of which is to extend the Federal-Provincial Fiscal Arrangements Act.
As mentioned by the previous speaker, this bill must be put in the current context, that of an extremely difficult transfer of power between the current PM and the future PM, the member for LaSalle—Émard. This bill is before us today only because the Liberal Party of Canada wants to retain the whole array of instruments needed to manage this difficult transition without having to come back to Parliament, so that it can close down the House whenever it sees fit.
As the Bloc Quebecois and its leader have said over and over again, we believe that this House must keep on sitting no matter how difficult this transition is, and that this bill is premature. There are still five months left before the current equalization payment formula expires. At their last meeting, on October 10, the provincial finance ministers and their federal counterpart said that they would do everything in their power to reach an agreement by March 31.
Why put forward a bill extending arrangements dating back to 1999 that are full of holes? These flaws have been condemned by every single province, in particlar by the current government of Quebec. They were also severely criticized by the Séguin commission on fiscal imbalance created by the premier of the day, Bernard Landry.
Why this bill now? Not because the provinces want to reach an agreement with the federal government. Not for lack of time to find a solution. It is because, for partisan reasons, the Liberal Party does not want to have its hands tied in the context of the difficult transition between the current PM and the future PM, the member for LaSalle—Émard.
That is why the Bloc Quebecois put forward a motion asking the current Prime Minister to relinquish power shortly after the Liberal Party convention to avoid this sort of situation, where a bill which is totally uncalled for at this time is being introduced prematurely.
Everybody will understand perfectly that the Bloc Quebecois does not disagree with the fact that, in the end, if negotiations between the provinces, Quebec and the federal government are not satisfactory, a bill can be introduced to extend the present agreement for a year in order complete the negotiations.
However, the presumption behind this bill is that there will be no agreement. We are making this presumption even though, on October 10, the provincial ministers of finance and their federal counterpart said that they would negotiate in good faith and hopefully would reach an agreement before March 31, 2004. Therefore, The presumption is that no agreement will be reached before that date, not for lack of good faith on everybody's part, but because, for a certain period, this government will not be able to conclude agreements with the provinces. This is because the one person who is really leading the government is not here to be held accountable, but is nonetheless pulling the strings.
We cannot approve that approach. We think that, with five months ahead of us to negotiate and the good will showed by all parties, an agreement can be reached, especially if the present Prime Minister bows out soon after the convention of the Liberal Party of Canada. It would appear that, at the Liberal caucus meeting yesterday, he sort of hinted that it was a possibility. However, we cannot approve the current paralysis by supporting the bill before us.
As I said, we hope to sit with the new PM, the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, during the winter session. We would like to be able to exert pressure on that leader and this government so that an agreement can be reached on a equalization formula that will be more equitable for the provinces.
At this stage, we cannot support Bill C-54 in its present form, not because we will not have to eventually renew the existing arrangements, but because this bill is premature. Supporting it would be like approving the present paralysis of this Parliament and co-operating with the Liberal Party of Canada and the government who want to find a way to suspend the sittings of the House until an eventual throne speech followed by an election.
The Bloc Quebecois will vote against this bill on second reading. We hope to improve it so that we have all the leeway we need to reach an agreement before March 31 and submit to the House the new agreement on equalization we are hoping for. We will reserve our decision on the position we will take on third reading.
It is important to remind the House that equalization is a very important tool for the provinces and especially for Quebec. That cannot be denied. The situation we are in is extremely strange, with what we call the fiscal imbalance, in which 60% of Quebeckers' tax dollars end up in Ottawa. This money then has to be transferred back to Quebec and other provinces through programs like the Canadian Health and Social Transfer and the equalization formula, when it would be so simple to let the provinces, and Quebec in particular, have the tax base they need to carry out all their responsibilities.
Clearly, in these circumstances, we will have to improve the existing equalization formula, which distributes the tax burden equally among all the provinces. Ottawa spends about $10 or $11 billion annually on equalization, a relatively modest sum, I would say. Even if it appears to be a fairly large amount of money, it is only between 1 and 1.3% of the gross domestic product. While not a lot, it is nonetheless helping those provinces who do not have a large enough tax base to provide a number of services.
However, and this has already been pointed out by the hon. member for Drummond, among others, the current equalization formula is not satisfactory. Therefore, extending it in advance, immediately, presuming that there will be no agreement before March 31, simply condemns Quebec, for example, to lower revenues in the coming year than in the current year. That is quite abnormal in Quebec public finances, as we know.
Moreover, Quebec's is not a unique situation. At present, nine of the ten provinces, all but Alberta, are in financial trouble. Strangely enough, we are being told that the cumulative deficit of all the provinces for the coming year will be about $10 billion. In a way, if the $10 billion that goes through the federal government had gone directly into the provincial treasuries, we would have avoided this money-shuffling game.
That said, the rules being what they are, the equalization formula must be improved. As I was saying, the current formula means that the Government of Quebec will have less money next year than this year, and this at a time when Quebec's finance minister has announced a financial shortfall of nearly $3 billion. I remind the House that if the Government of Quebec does not want to tamper with health and education, there will only be an envelope of $9 billion in which to find that $3 billion. It is utterly impossible.
In the current situation, federal government transfer payments for health and education are inadequate, after the deep cuts we suffered during the war on inflation. Thus, neither transfer payments nor the current form of equalization can help the Government of Quebec fulfil its obligations in health and education. It has no choice. If it wants to balance the budget next year, the Government of Quebec will have to make come cuts in health and education. It cannot find $3 billion out of $9 billion—it cannot. It is impossible. The whole issue of fiscal imbalance is illustrated by this situation.
The current equalization payment is a significant transfer for all the provinces, except Ontario and Alberta. The equalization payment is a significant transfer for Quebec. The fact remains that a certain number of problems have been identified by the Séguin commission, the Government of Quebec, and the provinces.
For instance, there is the fact that the standard being used is based on the situation in five provinces, not all ten. The extremes are excluded, in other words, the Atlantic provinces because they are not wealthy enough, and Alberta because it is too wealthy.
This situation ends up penalizing Quebec, in particular, and other provinces as well. We agree with the provinces, the Government of Quebec and the Séguin commission that the new equalization formula should take into account the per capita fiscal capacity of all ten Canadian provinces, including Quebec, Alberta and the Atlantic provinces, as I mentioned.
The second problem identified by the Séguin commission, the Government of Quebec and all the provincial governments, concerns the equalization ceiling. In 1999, for the last formula that will expire in March 2004, the ceiling was arbitrarily set at $10 billion and indexed each year to nominal GDP.
The ceiling was fully applied only in 2000-01. This denied the provinces entitled to equalization a sum of $224 million. Knowing the provinces' situation with respect to public funding, it is safe to say that money would have been extremely helpful.
The way the cuts are distributed also disadvantages Quebec, because it is done in proportion to the entitlements of each province, and is not based on demographics. That said, when there are cuts to be made, Quebec assumes 62% of the cuts, yet we represent 24% to 25% of the population.
It is therefore extremely important to us that the ceiling on equalization be lifted to ensure there are no shortfalls to the provinces and Quebec.
Another element that is extremely important to the Séguin commission, the Government of Quebec and the provinces, is the tax base used to determine equalization entitlements. At present, these are poorly defined. We know that they are calculated based on 33 tax bases, including property tax. This is a serious problem for Quebec, since the federal government arbitrarily decided to measure fiscal capacity taking into account the income of owners, and not property value.
Common sense would dictate that, when looking at a tax base like property tax, one would look at the value of the property or buildings, and not the income of the owners who live in them. This anomaly results in Quebec's fiscal capacity being overestimated. Consequently, Quebec is being deprived of $800 million.
The gap between the fiscal capacity of the provinces and the average is currently 22%, while the gap based on property values is 35.5%. This too needs to be corrected.
As I indicated previously in a question, the provinces are asking, as the Séguin commission and the Government of Quebec did, that Ottawa make payments much more predictable. There are a number of statistics involved. In fact, some 3,000 figures are used to calculate equalization. It would need to be much more transparent. Also, whenever there are changes in these figures, these changes should not be applied to the current year or retroactively, but rather over a period of three to five years.
In practice, the federal government always ends up spreading the repayment or cut required over several years. But even then, only after strenuous negotiations. There is always blackmail involved on the part of the federal government, which starts off by saying, “You will have to pay”, but, under pressure from the opposition, the Bloc Quebecois, the provinces and the public at large, eventually makes arrangements.
It would be better for everyone if the rules were clear and if the amended equalization amounts, based on a statistical variation, were spread over three to five years so that the provincial finance ministers, in their budgets, would not have to deal with unexpected clawbacks or changes to the transfer payment amounts under the formula. As I mentioned, all the provinces have reached consensus on these demands.
Under the formula proposed by the provinces, the fiscal capacity of all ten provinces, instead of five, would be taken into account. However, this would cost the federal government $3 billion.
Obviously, the Minister of Finance is saying that this is impossible. This week, to everyone's surprise, he announced a technical deficit, a new invention of the Department of Finance. This tactic has already been used to hide any surplus. First, as you will remember, a $3 billion contingency reserve was created. Since that did not do the trick, the current Minister of Finance invented a new category called economic prudence.
When he was asked in the House to explain the difference between the contingency reserve and a reserve for economic prudence, he could not, because there is none. That side is merely playing with numbers to avoid having to reveal the actual surplus and is hiding the true state of federal finances from the public, as well as the fact that the federal government is able to meet the provinces' demands, for example, that the fiscal capacity of all ten provinces, not five, be calculated.
I would remind hon. members that, for the fiscal year ending in March 2003, the Minister of Finance was talking about a $3 billion surplus just weeks ago. Three weeks later, oddly enough, the surplus had reached $7 billion. It is rather disquieting that the finance minister cannot estimate the amount of surplus at the same amount on two occasions only weeks apart. This is an error of 133%. Hon. members might say this is a trifle compared to last year, and they would be right. In 2001-02, the then finance minister, now member for LaSalle—Émard, and prime minister to be, was 493% off. So this year is somewhat of an improvement.
Oddly enough, the Bloc Quebecois, with its meagre means, is able year in and year out to predict the surplus within about 10%. In the past four years, we have never been more than 10% off.
So the Liberal government is employing a strategy to camouflage the true condition of public finances by underestimating the surplus—their past tactic was to underestimate the deficit, now they overestimate the surplus—in order to make the public think they do not have the money. But they do.
For example, for the coming year, the Minister of Finance tells us he is already in a technical deficit. This is something new he has come up with. His technical deficit means in fact that his surplus will not be as large as projected. Instead of three or four billion, it will be something less.
There will in all probability be a surplus. I am even convinced that it will be three or four billion. This surplus is, however, not called a surplus any more; now they call it a technical deficit. This is just smoke and mirrors. Fortunately, fewer and fewer people in Quebec and Canada are buying that story.
With our calculator and our very simple model, we did a rough estimation of what the surplus will be for the current year. We believe that the government will easily end up with a $6 billion to $7 billion surplus. This means that there is more than enough room to follow up on the provinces' request and increase the tax base so that equalization payments better reflect the actual fiscal capacity per capita of each province--and we are talking here about $3 billion--and to commit immediately to transferring the $2 billion provided for in the health agreement.
This is the $2 billion that has been used shamelessly for blackmail over the last few weeks. We know that the government will have enough money to address the provinces' concerns with regard to equalization payments and health transfers.
We have five months ahead of us. I am asking the federal government and the Minister of Finance to undertake negotiations in good faith, as requested by the provinces and by Quebec, to find a solution as quickly as possible. We have the money and we can do it.
If the future prime minister wants to take part in these negotiations, it is fine with me, but we do not want to hear about an extension of fiscal arrangements. We know full well that this will take away all the pressure to negotiate on the part of the federal government, and we will probably end up, in the spring of 2005, with another extension or with an arrangement that is not satisfactory.
If they negotiate in good faith, they can find a solution to this problem and, as I was saying at the beginning of my remarks, this is why we will be voting against this bill at second reading, hoping that we can amend it in committee to take into account all the elements that I just mentioned, and then be able to vote in favour of this principle at third reading.