Mr. Speaker, the member has just illustrated the fundamental problem we face in trying to debate major economic issues facing the Canadian public, which is the complete obsession by the official opposition with electoral politics.
We have to discuss some of these things in a more realistic way and the member's first question was a realistic one. He asked how it is that there are unanticipated surpluses. They come because forecasting is inaccurate. They come because forecasting in the case of surpluses is too low. Forecasting occurs at least 12 months, generally 14 to 18 months, prior to the end of the fiscal year that is forecast.
As we all know, economists rarely give an opinion more than two years out so we are really asking them to stretch it when we ask them to forecast ahead 14 to 18 months. They do not like that kind of issue. The reason their analyses have been so bad dealing with climate change is because they have trouble forecasting years and decades ahead.
Economists have difficulty calculating anticipated forecasts but they work the figures through and look at trends. I have a number of forecasts in front of me that have been done by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and the Royal Bank. I know I am not allowed to use them in the House because they would be considered a prop, but I have them and I will ensure he gets these kinds of documents. I will even give him some of the forecasts from Statistics Canada on energy, which is another point for another bill.
The fact is that economists make mistakes and the private sector frequently makes mistakes. Shell Oil calculated, and I think my figures are pretty accurate if they are not exact, $4.6 billion for its latest tar sands development. It is coming in at $7.2 billion. That is a phenomenal overrun. If that were government, we would not talk about anything else.
The private sector forecasts are based on government calculations and it can make errors. If the errors are in a certain direction, for example, revenues are more than expected, then a surplus results. That is why we are getting some of these contradictions. That is why the opposition has such trouble understanding the Minister of Finance when he says that we cut tax rates and received more tax revenue. Those members cannot understand it. It is because the economy can expand in a greater than expected way.
That is how we get this kind of unanticipated surplus and why the bill should be looked at quite carefully in terms of what we do.