Mr. Speaker, with regard to (a), if Canadians do not take advantage of the opportunity to earn more by working more while they are collecting EI and if there is no significant change to employment rates, it is estimated that up to 250,000 claimants over the three years of the amended working while on claim, WWC, pilot project would elect to revert to the previous pilot project parameters, set at $75 or 40 per cent of their benefits, whichever is greater. This estimate does not account for a change in behaviour by claimants and is based on data before the new working while on claim pilot was introduced. This information will be broken down by province in a future employment insurance monitoring and assessment report.
With regard to (b), if EI claimants do not take advantage of the opportunity to earn more by working more with the new pilot, it is estimated that claimants who revert to the previous pilot project parameters and only earn $75 or 40 per cent of their benefits will receive on average an additional $70 to $80 per week of EI benefits. This assumes no change in the claimants’ behavior or EI eligibility.
With regard to (c), estimates for EI benefits rely on assumptions for employment and wages that can change over time and do not take into consideration behavioural changes by EI recipients, such as working more under the new pilot. For example a general improvement in employment rates would decrease costs, as there would be fewer EI claimants. As a result, the following estimates are subject to change. Preliminary estimates for EI benefits to be paid out as a result of the amendment to the WWC pilot project are approximately $61 million for 2012-13; $76 million for 2013-14; $67 million for 2014 15; and $26 million for 2015-16. It is important to note that although the amended WWC pilot is three years in length, it will run over four fiscal years.