With regard to government’s projections on page 292 of Budget 2018, “Futures contracts currently suggest that the differential between WTI and the CEP will narrow to the US$15 range by the summer [...] and to remain at this level on average over the 2018-2022 forecast horizon”: (a) as of the date of this question, in which year does the government currently project the Trans Mountain Expansion Project, and the Keystone XL Project to become operational; (b) by how much will the differential between the price of West Texas Intermediate and the Canadian Effective price (the discount on Canadian crude oil) diminish if the Trans Mountain Expansion and Keystone XL Projects, respectively, become operational in the years in (a); (c) by how much will the discount on Canadian crude oil diminish if the Trans Mountain Expansion and Keystone XL Projects, respectively, become operational (i) one year after the respective years in (a), (ii) two years after respective years in (a), (iii) five years after the respective years in (a), (iv) ten years after the respective years in (a); (d) by how much will the discount on Canadian crude oil diminish or increase if the Trans Mountain Expansion and Keystone XL Projects, respectively, never become operational; (e) by how much will federal revenue derived from any source related to the extraction, transport, and sale of crude oil increase or decrease if (i) the Trans Mountain Expansion and Keystone XL Projects, respectively, become operational in the year in (a), (ii) become operational in one of the years in (c), (iii) never become operational; (f) how much, if any, of the projections in (e) has the government, in preparing Budget 2018, included in budgetary projections for (i) 2020, (ii) 2021, (iii) 2022, (iv) 2023; (g) how much, if any, of the projections in (e) will the government include in budgetary projections for the years in (f) in preparing Budget 2019; (h) by how much have the projections in (e) and their inclusion in the budgetary calculations in (f) and (g) increased or decreased since the government purchased Kinder Morgan’s existing Trans Mountain Pipeline assets and assumed responsibility for the Trans Mountain Expansion Project; (i) what is the discount on Canadian crude oil as of the date of this question; (j) if the value of the discount on Canadian crude oil in (i) persists between the date of this question and 2022, how much lower than the projections in Budget 2018 will actual revenue in (e) be; and (k) what budgetary contingency has the government put in place in case of (j)?
In the House of Commons on September 17th, 2018. See this statement in context.