Mr. Speaker, the last pandemic dates back 100 years. The last national immunization campaign was for polio and dates back to 1952. Since then, there have been dramatic changes in knowledge, techniques and technologies.
This time, we were almost lucky. Since the 2003 SARS crisis, scientists around the world have been warning governments about the extremely high risk of an impending pandemic. They were ready to bet their boots that the pandemic would be caused by a coronavirus. However, governments around the world made cuts to academic research. That was a bad idea.
We were even lucky enough here, thanks to technology, to see the devastation that the virus caused in China a few months before it came to Canada. A year ago today, questions were asked in the House about the measures being taken to limit the spread of the virus in Canada by imposing a mandatory quarantine on people arriving from China.
I was looking at the situation and thinking that we were lucky to have been warned, that we were going to be prepared. I was wrong. I am going to talk about procurement, simple mathematical calculations and the importance of information.
Procurement is by nature a complex matter. The pandemic has made things even more complicated because the government has to take on new obligations on top of fulfilling its usual duties. It was clear that we needed PPE, but procuring enough was sometimes very difficult given that Quebec, the provinces and Canada pretty much abandoned their manufacturing capacity when they decided to rely on Chinese manufacturing.
Another element that took some planning was vaccines. The government had to invest in research and reserve supply. It was sensible to reserve doses with several companies because we did not know which ones would come up with safe, effective vaccine candidates first. How much did those reservations cost? We do not know. What kind of timelines were attached to reservations and deliveries? We do not know. What percentage of the weekly vaccine production at each of those facilities is destined for Canada? We do not know. No matter how much the government pats itself on the back for having the biggest portfolio in the world, there are no vaccines to be had.
When it comes to vaccines, as a result of changes made to the Patent Act, pharmaceutical companies that were once here moved elsewhere. As a result, Quebec and Canada have very few plants producing vaccine candidates. I feel fortunate that my riding is home to Medicago. Not only is it in the midst of clinical trials for its vaccine candidate, but its manufacturing plant should be ready sometime this year. We will be able to get vaccines quickly.
A pharmaceutical company from western Canada announced today that it is also able to produce its vaccine. That is good news, but it almost did not happen because the financial support promised in April to Canada's pharmaceutical companies did not arrive until July or August. Meanwhile, open negotiations were happening internationally, as our domestic companies were waiting for assistance. Comprehensive planning should have included follow-up in the Prime Minister's highly publicized announcement.
I would add one final point regarding planning. It is not normal for a company to advise on January 19, or Thursday, January 14, that it will not be able to supply the number of doses set out in the agreement for the coming weeks because it needs to update its facilities. There is no mention of emergency repairs. An update is planned months, sometimes even years in advance. Let us say months. These kinds of decisions are planned, and we did not hear anything about it at the time.
Why was Canada not informed in advance of this update, especially when the vaccine delivery schedule was being finalized? We do not know. If the government had been informed of this facility update before January 19, or January 14 according to what the minister told us, it could have asked Pfizer to use its Michigan plant to supply us. Why was that not done? We do not know.
If the government had known this during the negotiations, it could have turned to other suppliers, such as Moderna. This is called basic planning.
I want to do some simple math. I wish I had my whiteboard here, but since I do not I invite my colleagues to grab some paper and a pencil.
Since December, the government has been saying that all Canadians will be vaccinated by the end of September. This morning, the Prime Minister specified that there will be vaccines for every Canadian who wants one. That being said, in order for us to achieve herd immunity and finally get a break from this virus, 70% to 80% of the population has to be vaccinated. Say that 75% of the population wants to get vaccinated. That means that out of 38 million Canadians, 28.5 million will have to be vaccinated. Since it takes two doses of vaccine, we will need 57 million doses.
Since there are 35 weeks between now and the end of September we will need a little more than 1.6 million doses delivered and administered every week for eight months to keep the promise made by the Prime Minister and the Minister of Public Services and Procurement.
The minister told us that between the beginning of the vaccination campaign and the end of March, we will receive a total of six million doses. That leaves a shortfall of 51 million doses before we achieve herd immunity.
There are about 24 or 25 weeks between the end of March and the end of September. What does that mean? It means that we will have to receive and administer 51 million doses. During that six-month period, we will have to administer about 1.9 million doses per week.
Based on its calculations, will the government manage to achieve herd immunity by the end of September? We do not know. According to the government, how many people will receive two doses by the end of September? We do not know. Would it be possible to see someone's, anyone's, calculations? It could be jotted down on a piece of paper or a napkin. I do not have a problem with that, as I am not picky. I just want to understand. I want the public to understand.
It is easy to tell governments that they must not hold back doses and have to distribute the vaccines, even if they point out that a second dose is required. Once the governments start distributing the first dose of the vaccine, however, the directive changes and the governments are then told to wait because a second dose is required. It is easy to blame others. We need a plan. Where is this plan? We do not know.
I understand that there are trade secrets to be kept, but there must still be a way to show a schedule to the members and the provinces so that everyone can adjust. It would also help the government to see that the figures do not match what was promised, unless the government has information that it is keeping to itself.
Information is power. People often think that they hold a lot of power when they have a lot of information and keep it to themselves, but when the perspective is switched, we find that people work together and are more open when they are properly informed and not kept in the dark.
I have found that sharing information gives people a reassuring sense of control over their lives. There are two versions of the old saying: Either we use information to wield personal power to benefit one person or a small group of people, or we use information to share power that benefits the entire country.
I have a few questions. Why is the government keeping information about the vaccine delivery agreements to itself? Is it thinking about the purely electoral value of the information, or is it thinking about the common good? Personally, I have made my choice: I am thinking of the common good.