Mr. Speaker, the 2022 fall economic statement, or FES, released on November 3, 2022, is the most recent economic outlook published by the federal government. It is based on the Department of Finance survey of private sector economists conducted in early September 2022. The average of private sector forecasts has been used as the basis for economic and fiscal planning since 1994, helping to ensure objectivity and transparency, and introducing an element of independence into the government’s economic and fiscal forecast. It can be found on pages 9 to 12 and 43 to 45 of the FES or at FES-EEA-2022-en.pdf on canada.ca.
In the FES, the Department of Finance did also develop a scenario that illustrates a slower growth track relative to the September survey. This scenario is not a government baseline forecast; it is one of many plausible paths the economy could follow. This scenario was presented in the FES for illustrative purposes to facilitate prudent economic and fiscal planning. It can be found on pages 12 to 13 and 44 to 45 of the FES or at FES-EEA-2022-en.pdf on canada.ca.