Mr. Speaker, with regard to part (a), subsection 9(2.1) of the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act requires the Government of Canada to include an interim greenhouse gas, GHG, objective for 2026 in its 2030 emissions reduction plan, ERP. Canada’s 2026 interim GHG objective is 20% below 2005 levels. The interim objective is not an official target akin to Canada’s 2030 nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement, but the act does require that the mandatory progress reports associated with the 2030 ERP, to be published in 2023, 2025 and 2027, include an update on the progress that has been made towards achieving the interim GHG emissions objective for 2026.
With regard to part (b), the 2026 interim GHG objective was set to be in line with Canada’s emissions reduction trajectory to 2030, based on the projections included in the 2030 ERP. Projections for the 2030 ERP use a combination of two modelling approaches: a bottom-up approach and a back-casting approach.
The bottom-up approach provides an estimation for emissions reductions achievable from existing climate measures, including some ERP measures, which at the time of publishing the ERP accounted for 470 megatonnes, Mt, or 36% below 2005 levels.
The back-casting approach, on the other hand, caps total emissions at the level needed to achieve the 2030 target of 40% below 2005 levels and identifies economically efficient potential reductions from each sector.
With regard to (c), results from Canada’s most recent GHG emissions projections to 2030 coming from the "With Additional Measures" scenario, which was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2022 as part of Canada's Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report on Climate Change, show that Canada is still on track to meet it with emissions being projected to be 18.2% below 2005 emissions in 2026.
With regard to (d), according to the results from the "With Additional Measures" scenario, the difference between Canada's projected 2026 emissions and its target is 13 Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent.