Madam Speaker, we remain in a climate crisis, one that requires urgent action if we hope to leave a livable planet for future generations. I rise this afternoon to continue to press the government to do better on its commitment to capping big oil's emissions, following up on a question I asked back in December.
It was over three years ago now, in November 2021, when the Prime Minister first said, “We’ll cap oil and gas sector emissions today and ensure they decrease tomorrow at a pace and scale needed to reach net-zero by 2050.” It sounds nice, particularly when emissions from oil and gas in 2021 were 189 megatonnes; this was an increase of 88% since 1990 and 28% of Canada's total emissions.
Beyond the nice words, let us be clear: This commitment, even in its original form, did not follow climate science to begin with. First, it committed to cap only oil and gas emissions, not production. This is a significant issue; if we hope to hold global average temperatures below 1.5°C, with even a 50% chance of doing so, Canada would need to do its fair share of what remains of the global carbon budget to achieve this goal. That would mean we would have to leave 86% of our proven fossil fuel reserves unextracted. Therefore, it is clear that we must address not only emissions but also production as we shift to other energy sources.
Second, net zero by 2050 is not worth the paper it is printed on if we do not do our fair share of what is required to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C in the short term. This means reducing it by at least 60% below 2005 levels by 2030, along with international support in emissions reductions across the Global South, equivalent to another 80% of Canada's 2005 emissions. Nevertheless, in the three years since, the government has continued to weaken and even delay this insufficient announcement.
To start, the emissions reduction plan in 2022 said the cap would decrease oil and gas emissions by 79 megatonnes, to 110 megatonnes, aligning with the 40% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030. As I shared, that is already less than what climate scientists tell us is required. The minister then promised that it would all be done and in place by the end of 2023. All we got by then was a framework for discussion, and it is full of loopholes. Now that 79 megatonnes that were promised dropped by more than half.
Now only 34 megatonnes are projected to be reduced; the government is doing things such as exempting 20 megatonnes from downstream oil refining and pipelines and another 25 megatonnes for compliance flexibilities, which is a code word for buying offsets. Now we know that this weakened cap will not even be in place until 2026. How could this have happened? In the two years since, big oil put forward a full-on campaign, pressing the government with 2,000 meetings. There were three meetings a day, seven days a week, and no days off; clearly, it must have worked.
Will the government put an end to these meetings with big oil, put our children's future ahead of their greed and place a real cap on big oil's emissions?