Mr. Speaker, for centuries, alchemists promised to transform lead into gold, and they failed. What is surprising is that after each failure, they still managed to convince one group of people after another with their promise.
Today, the chief alchemist, the Liberal Prime Minister, is promising to transform deficits into investments. He presents this as a new promise, but in reality, it is the same promise the Liberals have been making for 10 years, since October 2015. Given that we have been hearing the same promises for a decade, it is high time to consider whether or not all this is working.
Let us take a look at the results. Among the G7 countries, Canada has seen the slowest growth in per-capita investment. Of the G7 countries, we have had the worst GDP per capita. Canada invests $15,000 for every worker here. That is about half of what is invested in the United States, where they invest $29,000. It a third less than the OECD average.
Since coming to power, the Prime Minister has doubled the deficit. Has there been an increase in investment? No. We have lost $54 billion. He promised the American President that his government's policies would take an additional $1 trillion out of Canada over the next five years. More deficits mean less investment.
The Liberals did not manage to get the budget to balance itself nor did they manage to spend less to invest more. The alchemists failed to transform the lead of debt into the gold of investment.
For centuries, alchemists promised and failed to transform lead into gold, but that is not the surprising part. What is surprising is that after each debunking, they would manage to repeat the same promise and convince even more people. It would always come with a new salesman and some flashy new jargon, always designed to dupe yet another group of people who had dreams of gold.
Today's alchemist-in-chief, the Liberal Prime Minister, promises to transform deficits into investments. This is not a new promise; it is exactly the same one that Justin Trudeau ran on in 2015. We remember that he said the budget would balance itself. To be fair to him, we all thought it was just a gaffe. What he actually meant was that deficit spending would spark investment which would grow the economy, generating enough money for the budget to balance itself.
The current Prime Minister has a slightly more sophisticated-sounding but similar idea, which is to spend less and invest more, but given that he has now taken office, accelerated the spending and doubled the deficit, it is now time for us to consider the actual results. What actually happened? Well, since the Liberal government took office, the debt has doubled, growth has stalled, investment has fallen, the budget did not balance itself and, of course, lead did not become gold.
Let us look at the facts. The core facts are these: Under the government, Canada has had the single-worst growth in investment per capita of any country in the G7. I will be splitting my time with the member for Newmarket—Aurora, who will tell the House that in fact the reality is that if we take total investment divided by the number of workers in Canada, we get about $15,000 in investment per worker, which is barely half of the $29,000 in the United States and a third lower than the $24,000 across the OECD.
The result has been that we have had the worst per capita GDP growth in the G7. Dressing up the deficits in a banker's suit has not made any difference, because since the Prime Minister took office, doubling the deficit, which is the rate at which we add new debt, we have actually seen investment drop by $54 billion. Just the other day, he promised that his policies would drive another trillion dollars out of this country into the United States, proving once again, the result, that deficits do not equal investment. Why is this?
There are a number of reasons. First, everything comes from something. There are only two ways for governments to run deficits: print money or borrow it. If it prints it, it causes inflation, which drives up interest rates, which drives down investment. If it borrows money, it has to borrow it from somebody. If the government borrows it out of the private economy to put it into the government economy, this means that the money that has been borrowed away from private investors is no longer available for productive investments in factories, mines, pipelines, new technology or other income-generating assets.
In other words, when government runs deficits, it does not create net economic activity; it simply shifts the activity away from productive private sector activity towards unproductive bureaucratic inactivity. It moves the money from where it is efficient to where is inefficient. By the way, that is called the crowding out effect. It is well known that this happens, and it is why deficits have coincided with drops in investment in most countries around the world.
The second reason is that today's deficits are tomorrow's taxes, and everybody knows that. What businesses and individuals do when they see governments racking up massive deficits is hoard their cash, waiting for the eventual tax bill. We saw this during COVID, when small businesses would say that with all the debt, they were holding onto their wallet because they knew a big tax hike was coming. They would put their money under their bed, not investing or spending it. They waited for it to be taxed away later on.
This is what economists call the Ricardian equivalence, and it very much proves that there is no net economic activity that results from government deficits; in fact, it only subtracts from the productive investments that people might otherwise make, but they are suspended in terror that they will have a future tax liability, and they therefore do not make those investments at all.
What we have seen is that when deficits are cut, investment is actually increased. Governments across Canada slashed deficits in the 1990s, and we saw a resulting boom in investment. The greatest example of all is Israel. In the 1990s, Israel was running massive deficits that required the government of that country to pay out 6% yields on its bonds. Investors could, in a very lazy way, simply buy government bonds instead of taking risks on productive investments, and that led to poor economic growth.
When Israel started to cut the deficits and in fact balance its budget, the investors could no longer lend to the government, so they had to invest in productive assets. This caused a boom in start-ups, to the point where Israel now has the single-highest density of high-tech companies in the world. As a country of 10 million people, it has more companies listed on the NASDAQ than does all of Europe combined, a continent with 75 times more people. Cutting deficits forces investors to invest in productive assets like the technological booms in Israel.
The Prime Minister will say that he can get a better return on investment with his government-made investments in big economic projects, but there are questions. If the projects he wants to invest in are money-losers, why would the government want to invest in them? If they are money-makers, why would the government need to invest in them? If a project is going to lose money, then going forward with it makes us all poorer. If it is a megaproject, it makes us a lot poorer. The logic of going ahead with massive projects that lose money is like the businessman who says he loses money on every single sale but makes it up in volume.
We do not need money-losing projects; we need money-making projects by having the fastest permits in the OECD, getting rid of the capital gains tax on reinvestments and having lower and marginal taxes on our highest achievers. In other words, the government only needs to get out of the way and stop telling us that it is going to turn deficits into investments or lead into gold. All it needs to do is get out of the way and allow Canadians to dig the beautiful gold mine that is right under our feet in Canada.