House of Commons photo

Crucial Fact

  • His favourite word was kyoto.

Last in Parliament September 2008, as Conservative MP for Red Deer (Alberta)

Won his last election, in 2006, with 76% of the vote.

Statements in the House

Kyoto Protocol November 26th, 2002

The Prime Minister thinks Italy is in the western hemisphere too. He may even think it is in the Americas, I do not know, but he sort of implied that the other day.

We need something that will work and we need it to be in the Americas. We need to involve our number one trading partner, the U.S. We need to involve our NAFTA partner, Mexico. We need to involve the developing countries of South America. We need all of them on side with this plan. What does the government not understand about that?

In Europe most of the coal generation has been replaced by gas. We could examine how that was done. There are two conclusions I came up with when I researched this. One is that it was getting very hard to get coal inexpensively. That was one of the first things.

The second thing was that Maggie Thatcher wanted to break the coal unions in Britain and she did it by turning all of Britain's energy generation to natural gas. It worked perfectly. She got rid of a real political problem. She had later ones but it worked at that point in time.

As well, Europe is a much smaller place. It has a dense population. Members of my family who live in Europe find it easy to get from point to point by rail. In fact many people there do not even own a car because they can get on a train every 15 minutes and get to the next city. I do not know, Madam Speaker, if you have tried taking the train in most parts of Canada, but in many parts there are not even tracks let alone trains, so we cannot use that as an argument.

Of course, Europe is warmer. The Europeans have more nuclear energy. All of those are reasons. A country like France which is 80% nuclear can easily say it can hit its Kyoto targets.

It is very interesting that in Brussels in October the European Union had a presentation from a group of economists. The economists told the European Union at the European parliament that the European Union cannot hit its targets without damaging the economy of its countries. That is the European Union which has very limited targets with all those advantages and it will have trouble hitting its targets. If it will have trouble hitting its targets and many of those countries are already near 1990 levels and we are at 20% above 1990 levels, going to 30% above 1990 levels, if it cannot hit its targets without damaging its economy, how are we going to do it?

That is what the question is, what is it going to do to Canadians? What will it do to the person on a fixed income? What will it do to the mom and dad with their kids, to that single mom, to the people whom the Liberals--hold our hands over our hearts--care about so much? What will it do to them? It will destroy them. They will have higher fuel bills. They will have higher power bills. They will have more costly transportation. A number of them will lose their jobs.

Why would we sign something? Remember, and let me repeat, for those people who say, “I can vote for the ratification of Kyoto, but boy we are going to go slow on the implementation”, we do not have to do this. For any future prime minister who says that there are not penalties from Kyoto, let me repeat that according to the Marrakesh accords, nations who ratify Kyoto but do not meet their targets in round one by 2012 will be penalized another 30% in emissions cuts. In addition, such nations cannot sell carbon credits in round two.

At the end of this period, if a party's emissions are still greater than its assigned amount, it must make up the difference in the second commitment period, plus a penalty of 30%. It will also be barred from selling under emissions credits and within three months it must develop a compliance action plan detailing the action it will take and it can buy credits to buy itself out of its inability to hit those targets.

If I were going to be a future prime minister, and I do not intend to be, I would certainly want to know that there were penalties. I would certainly not in a speech ever again say, “We can ratify Kyoto just to make the Prime Minister happy and then we can forget about it and we will not do anything to hurt our economy. We will do nothing to hurt Canadians and our economy will not be hurt by this because if we cannot comply, we will not comply and that is it”. How could any prime minister, present or future, ever say that? They cannot. They would be dishonest to the Canadian people if they said that. They would be dishonest to the provinces. They would be dishonest to every single Canadian.

Let us go on with the presentation--

Kyoto Protocol November 26th, 2002

Madam Speaker, I will just review Bonn, just to pick up on that, because I think some of the members were distracted.

In Bonn we got our sinks. The Europeans felt that there was no real science there and that there was no real way to monitor that, but we got them. We said that we really had something, we had 30 megatonnes of which were taken care.

However remember that our gap is 240 megatonnes. We talked a bit about where we would find that 240 megatonnes. I will review that for every member, because I know every member wonders from where we will get those kinds of numbers. Obviously we know now, and everyone will have written this down, that 30 megatonnes is from our sinks.

In November 2001 our government went to Marrakesh keen on Kyoto and the rules were set. This would be the enforcement rule setting. There was a lot of squabbling and late nights by our negotiators, but they came up with some penalties. These penalties are outlined very clearly. Any Liberal who thinks there are no penalties associated with ratification of Kyoto should hear this from the Kyoto accord. These were agreed to in Marrakesh and whoever might be the prime minister in the future will have to know that there are penalties associated with the ratification of Kyoto. It will not be good enough to say that was done by another prime minister and it will will not work. There are penalties to an international agreement.

The ratification in the Kyoto protocol says, “According to the Marrakesh accords, nations who ratify Kyoto but do not meet their targets in round one by 2012 are penalized another 30% in emissions cuts and in addition such nations cannot sell carbon credits in round two”.

It goes on to state, “In the case of compliance with emissions targets, Annex 1 parties--us--are granted 100 days after the expert review of their finding annual emissions inventory as finished to make up any shortfall in compliance mainly through emissions trading”.

What that says is we can buy the credits if we have not achieved our targets. That would be hundreds of billions of dollars to do that. Members in the House who think they may be prime minister in the future should read the Kyoto protocol. They should understand that there are penalties and they are definite penalties. For members who go out and say that we can ratify Kyoto and nullify it later, they are wrong.

Maybe we should read this again so that it is understood that there are penalties associated with the ratification of Kyoto. Therefore, when the members vote and if they vote in all conscience for the good of the Canadian people, they can never say again in public that they were not told there were penalties because there are definitely penalties.

Also articles from the European Union are being worked on legally to bring World Trade Organization claims against the U.S. We can get caught in that crossfire and those trade restrictions can be put on us when we have not lived up to our commitment. There is no way we will achieve our Kyoto credits.

Again this has to be emphasized in the House and there is no place else to do it. The media that keeps track of this needs to understand that anybody who plans to be prime minister of this country must understand that once Kyoto is ratified, by the end of this year according to the present Prime Minister, there will be penalties. The clock starts ticking then.

As soon as we are one of those countries representing 55% of the emissions, even though we have only 2% of the emissions, we are going to be subject to a 30% penalty that we have to buy our way out of if we do not live up to those commitments. By the year 2012 that commitment could be as much as 30% to 40% below 1990 levels. We will have to turn out all the lights. We will have to stop driving everything. It will bring wreckage on the economy.

I am starting to sound like the environment minister saying that the sky is falling. I do not like that because we have a better way, a better solution, a solution that anyone wanting to be prime minister of this country would want to hear. We have a better way, a made in Canada way, a way that does not trap us into this kind of European quagmire where they are out to get the Americans through the WTO. That is what it is all about. It says it clearly here.

I have heard members in the House who have said out on the public campaign trail that we have no penalties, that we are not going to do anything to hurt our country, and that if we cannot live up to Kyoto, we will not. To say that we will not when it is an international agreement is totally impossible. We cannot do that. That is a total piece of deceit. I would certainly hope that any members who are here now will be voting against that ratification until we know what the costs are, until we know what the plan is, and until we have an implementation.

The member for LaSalle--Émard made it very clear that he must have a plan, that he must have the costs, that he must know how it is going to impact the Canadian people. He cares, I think, about the mom and dad and their two kids. He cares about the people out there. That is why I know he is going to oppose the ratification of Kyoto until we have the costs, the implementation plan and the effect on our economy. It just has to be that way because we certainly would believe that the Prime Minister and future prime ministers are honourable men and know the facts before they do something.

Let me carry on because there are penalties associated with Kyoto and we must all know them. We must constantly quote from the Kyoto accord that the Prime Minister wants to sign.

We are at Marrakesh. The Russians are now getting some steam. They are saying that they want to double their forest credits, that Canada was given them in Bonn and they want them for themselves. They agreed and they doubled Russian credits for forests. That is fine. By the time we got to Johannesburg they really had a head of steam and were saying, “Hey, you thought that carbon credits were going to be millions? We want billions”. That is a whole other issue that we will talk about in a minute.

Because sinks are important and because they are part of this, if we talked to our agriculture critic he would say that is great, that these sinks might be a good thing, we have them as credits. That means that farmers are going to have a source of income from their methods of farming. If they change to direct seeding, do not use so much diesel fuel, do not work their crops under in the same way and so on, they are going to get credits. That is probably good for farmers.

The provinces would say it would be good because they would get those credits. Their farmers would not ask for any help because they would already have a source of income, so that should be good. Obviously agriculture and forestry are provincial matters so that should be clear. I do not think there would be any argument, but what has happened? In the government plan all of the credits for sinks are going to the federal government, which is using those credits. They are not going to the provinces, not to the farmers, not to the foresters, but to the federal government.

Today a premier is going before the courts to say it is a total infringement on their constitutional rights. There is not a Bloc member who should be able to vote for this because of the tearing away of those rights from the provinces. They should be totally opposed to this just because this is a grab of power, a grab of the resources of the Canadian provinces, let alone the farmers and the foresters.

Are sinks an important issue? We better believe they are an important issue. We better believe that the millions of dollars that will be spent in court challenges is a waste of money that should be going into new technology, making Canada a leader. We should not be wasting it on constitutional challenges. We should not be providing farmers and foresters with some hope and then tearing it away from them, but I guess that is the Liberal way of handling Kyoto.

What we will do with sinks is try to get more credit for them. How will we do that? First of all we have to establish what they are. Then we have to realize that different aged trees have different amounts of CO

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absorption. An old tree does not absorb as much CO

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as a young tree. That is a biological fact.

Obviously someone will have to go out and age all of our forests. That should be a really good bureaucratic job. When the person gets home and tells his mom what he does, he is measuring trees to see how old they are. That should take a while. I can see our endangered species police driving down one road, our species at risk police driving down another road, our forest counters driving down another road and our DFO officers with their flak jackets and machine guns driving down another road. Will everybody become a civil servant in order to handle all this administration?

We will have to go out to farms and tell farmers they did not direct seed this year, they plowed the field or they lit a little fire out there and burnt some of the stubble and we will have to charge them for that. We will have to put them in jail probably. We have put farmers in jail for lesser things than that. Burning a stubble field could be almost capital punishment or something, because we do not really care about our farmers or our foresters. I think this whole sinks issue is an example that we do not care about the provinces either. Again, it is an example is how they have been treated in this whole negotiation.

Where are we with sinks? We are in a big mess. There is a court challenge already started. The Bloc should be pretty upset about it. Already eight of the 10 provinces are totally opposed to it. Farmers and foresters should be really opposed to this.

The number of friends the government will have will be pretty small. The Liberals may find themselves to be like the Conservatives. I have often said that there are legacies. Certainly a former prime minister, Mr. Trudeau, has a legacy. In western Canada his legacy is the national energy program. No one has forgotten that. Bilingualism and multiculturalism programs are all legacies of Mr. Trudeau which people remember.

Mr. Mulroney certainly has a legacy. His legacy was increasing the debt many times as well as the GST. I do not think many Canadians have forgotten whose legacy that was.

I am totally convinced that the legacy of the present Prime Minister will be Kyoto. That legacy will be very similar to the legacy of those other guys. How many other Canadians have the same view?

I could not be any more convinced that Kyoto is the wrong way to go. I would not be doing town hall meetings across the country if I did not believe that. I would not be working seven days a week on this file or talking so long in the House if I did not believe that this is the worst treaty the country could ever sign. It will have the biggest impact on most Canadians than anything we have ever done in the House.

As this presentation goes on I see a lot of people on the other side taking notes and wondering about all of this. It is good that they are because this is stuff they can take home for their town hall meetings. I know they will want to inform their constituents. They will want to talk to the average person who will be affected by CO

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Let me talk about the developing countries. They are definitely taking a stand right now, most notably India and China.

Where is China in this whole picture? Basically it has a huge supply of brown coal. It needs energy desperately. The Three Gorges dam will provide 10% of that energy. It has two nuclear power plants where no environmental assessment was done by the government but that is fine because it is just in China. Those nuclear power plants came on stream this month and are providing China with energy but it still has a huge shortage of energy. It will have to burn the soft coal unless Canada is innovative enough to come up with technologies.

Clean coal technology has been developed in Europe and the U.S. The first trial plant will be in Alberta in 2008 by TransAlta. We are not leaders. We cannot transfer this technology to China. We have guys lined up to transfer this technology.

Those countries made it very clear in Delhi that they will not handicap their economies by signing on to an agreement that will damage their economies beyond repair. They are growing and developing countries and they are going to stay that way. If Canada wants to help them be cleaner they will go with that, but if we are telling them to reduce their CO

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and sign on to Kyoto in 2012 we can forget it. Those negotiations were to begin in 2005. They have said they will not be there. Is that significant or not? Yes it is.

Let us look at China. China on a graph is going straight up with CO

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emissions because it is a huge developing country. It is now the number two producer of CO

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in the world. The U.S. has gone from 30% CO

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to 23% and in 2012 it will be 18%. China is 17% today. China doubles its CO

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output every 12 years. In five years China will pass the U.S. and will become the number one emitter of CO

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The government says it will cut the use of carbon by all Canadians by 20%. Is that not wonderful. We are 2% of the world. We are going to put ourselves in a tunnel and it will not make a bit of difference to the environment, but China is not going to be part of it and we do not care.

India is a huge developing country with over one billion people. That country is now number five in the production of CO

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. India is growing; its industries are growing.

India and China say they are not going to be signing on to Kyoto any time in the future. They are not going to be annex II countries. They are not going to be coming to the table in 2005. How can the government sit here and say it is going to sign it?

I have heard, “We will sign it, but we do not have to implement it,” wink, wink, nod, nod. Need I say this again, there are penalties, there are penalties, there are penalties. We will come back to those penalties again. I hope that any future prime minister has gotten the message.

India is increasing dramatically. I know I cannot use props, but I have graphs that show what India and China are doing. I know I cannot use them but there are graphs that show all this and show the exact numbers.

Brazil and Mexico have no targets at all. They have no intention of signing on to this. The government says that Canada will show leadership and that those countries will follow us.

For most of my life I have travelled. I have been in every country in the world pretty well. I know that the status of Canada due to the present government and previous governments is falling. There is not a whole bunch of people out there who will follow us just because we are such wonderful, good, liberal people and we care about the environment.

Tell the people of Fraser Valley how much the government cares about the air. Tell them. There are thousands of people out there who know the government does not care. Talk to the people about the sewage outlets in the three major cities in Canada. Tell the people that the government really cares. Tell the people at the tar ponds. Tell the people in northern Saskatchewan. Tell the native people who have hundreds of boil water orders. Tell all of them how much the government cares about the environment. The Liberals care; if they keep saying it and pounding their chests often enough, they might start believing it.

Let us talk about CO

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emissions. I will talk about these figures and I know for all the members taking notes it is hard to do. If they call my office I will give them a hard copy of this.

I am talking about world emissions of CO

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starting with 1995. I will say right now that the developing world in 1995 represented 27% of the CO

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emissions. In the developed world it was 73% of the emissions. The breakdown is the U.S., 22%; western Europe, 17%; eastern Europe and some other countries in that area, 27%; Asia, 7%; the Mideast, 3%; Africa, 3%; Latin America, 4%; China, 11%; and the other parts of Asia other than China, 6%.

We have 27% from the developing world and 73% from the developed world in 1995. Let us look at the figures for 2035. We will move those forward 40 years and see where it will be. This will be with Kyoto in place and people living up to Kyoto claims. Remember that there are penalties if countries do not live up to Kyoto.

We will assume that they all do. Where would we be then? The developing world will be at 50% of CO

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emissions. The developed world will now be down to 50%. The developing world has gone from 27% to 50%. The developed world has gone from 73% to 50%.

That is the trend line that carries on in the models of the IPCC which I will get to later. For those models that is the figure being used. They are now projecting to the year 2100. I have chosen the year 2035 as a reasonable length of time down the road.

At that point, the other parts of Asia will be 14%, China, 17%; Latin America, 6%; Africa, 8%; the Mideast, 5%; eastern Europe, 19%; western Europe, 12%; and the U.S., 15%. The U.S. has dropped down to fifth or sixth spot and the developing countries have come up. China will be the leader in the production of CO

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It is interesting that western Europe is going to improve by only 5% simply because it did not agree to the targets that everybody else did. This was a European developed way to get at the U.S. and that is exactly how it is developing.

We see the facts. Those are from the models. How can the government deceive people into believing that this is not so? This is from the environment group. This is from the United Nations, the IPCC, the scientists who say they know and who the government quotes as experts all the time. Are they telling Canadians these things? I have not heard it. All I have seen are the ads on television saying that little Johnny is going to die, that little Johnny has asthma, that the forests are dying.

That is not even the truth. CO

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is used for photosynthesis. It is to help plants.

Should we deal with pollution? We sure should. Pollution is a terrible problem. The person on the environment committee from the Windsor area in southern Ontario has told me about the terrible air in that community. We should do something about it. The Fraser Valley has the second worst air shed. Something should be done about that. We should deal with it. We should put in scrubbers. We should go after industry to fix it, but that is not what Kyoto is about.

Kyoto is about CO

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. Kyoto is about an international agreement. It appears the government does not understand that.

Let me review again where Europe is. Europe can ratify this thing easily. The 15 countries are together on this. They can interchange credits and they think they are going to be fine. They have the advantage of the deindustrialization of eastern Europe which resulted in all those credits. The European Union can transfer credits from EU country to EU country. They have a bloc of 15 countries in which to transfer credits around.

We are a country of one. We cannot transfer credits. It does not matter if we transfer among the provinces. We cannot transfer to the U.S., Mexico, Brazil or other countries in the Americas. If we are going to have a plan at all, why is it not a made in the Americas plan which involves North America and South America? That would work a lot better.

Kyoto Protocol November 26th, 2002

Their motors are running. CO

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is being released and carbon energy is being burnt. We have to stop doing that. They need to set an example right out front. Right now we could go out there and count them. There are 20 to 30 cars running out there. They will be running all day. That is the example that is being set.

When I was driving on Highway 401 on Sunday, I was looking at all of the people driving beside me. They were all going at between 120 to 130 kilometres in all kinds of big vehicles. I thought to myself, do these people understand what they are getting committed to in the House of Commons, that they are going to have to stop driving at 130? They are going to have to drive at 80 and have smaller vehicles. They will have to put little Johnny into a tighter vehicle with his hockey equipment when they take him to the game. They will be impacted big time. I do not think they know that.

Certainly people in the audience in Hamilton did not know that. They stood up and said that they did not think it was going to affect them. The guy who worked at the Windstar Ford factory that I passed on my way from Toronto stood up in the audience and said, “I didn't think my job was going to be impacted”. He makes Windstars. That is just one example. There are other big vehicles. They are not going to be saleable in Canada. Let us go back to my graph. Twenty-five per cent of CO

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emissions comes from transportation, so we have to cut transportation. We have to cut by 23% across the country, and what kind of country do we have? We have a cold country. We have a big country. We have a country without the infrastructure to allow us to get around.

It is fine for the Europeans to say that they can just use their trains more, but here we do not have the trains to use. Today CN announced another 1,000 job cuts. We are getting less trains, not more trains. We are getting less rapid transit, not more rapid transit. The government is just talking. It is not introducing any of these things.

As for landfill gases, they make up 4%. We should not have landfills anymore. They were outlawed in Europe 40 years ago. This 4% is a small amount, whereas 16% of our CO

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comes from power generation, so let us examine that.

What does this 16% mean? Fifty per cent of the power in Canada comes from the burning of coal. The old, traditional methods of burning coal are among the dirtiest producers of CO

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. Clean coal technology has been developed in Europe and the U.S., but 2008 is the earliest we will be experimenting with it in Canada. That will be happening in Alberta through TransAlta. In 2008, we will have some new coal technology in operation.

What is the government thinking, then, when it tells Canadians that Kyoto will not affect them? The lights in this place have been dimmed on occasion. I think that maybe the government's next step should be to turn the lights out totally because most of what it does seems like it has them out anyway.

Sixteen per cent of our CO

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emissions is from power generation and the government is telling Canadians that converting all those coal-powered generating plants to natural gas, nuclear power or whatever, will be cheap, that it will not cost money. We would have to use 23% less power than we are using today and what is the best way to get people to stop using gas and power? The best way, of course, is to raise the price.

At these international meetings I have heard the Europeans say that Canadians should be paying $2.50 per litre of gas. In Ontario, it is 66¢ a litre and in Alberta 72¢. Many economists say that in Canada next year a litre of gas will cost $1. That is a long way from $2.50, but that has to be the trend if we are to live with Kyoto.

One does not have to be a rocket scientist to look at these figures and understand them. Twenty-five per cent of our CO

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emissions is from transportation. If we want to cut our CO

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, which is what the government is asking us to commit ourselves to, we have to cut transportation. If we are to sign Kyoto, with its 23% below 1990 levels, we have to cut our use of power.

What else? There is mining and manufacturing. Seventeen per cent of our emissions of CO

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comes from mining and manufacturing. What does that mean? We must remember that mining and manufacturing use energy. If the price of energy goes up by 23% or the use is reduced by 23%, it will be like what SaskPower announced. SaskPower said that if the government signs Kyoto, power rates in Saskatchewan would go up 25%. A half an hour later, and I happened to be on a talk show while this was happening, the president of IPSCO said that what that meant to IPSCO was that it could not pay 25% more for its power and it would have to move south of the border.

The Prime Minister says that we will not lose any jobs, that this will not cost any more money. How is that possible? Does he think Canadians are a bunch of dummies who cannot look at these figures and figure this out? At every town hall meeting where I have gone through these figures, they have figured it out real quick. They understand it totally and they say, “Yes, that will cost us more money. We're going to lose jobs because of it”. As I said, a person does not have to be a rocket scientist to figure it out.

Eighteen per cent of CO

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emissions comes from oil and gas. One place most of it comes from is our tar sands development. They have improved their CO

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emissions by reducing them by 30% and they feel that with technology they can go even further in reducing those emissions, but the bottom line is that the emissions are still there.

Does that mean we are not going to extract any more oil and gas? That is what one would assume. If we have to cut by 23%, that industry has to take that hit as well. If that industry has to take that hit, who is going to pay for it? There are the jobs. There is an investment freeze in the country. I would go to Venezuela or Malaysia to put my money in where I do not have those restrictions, because, we must remember, they are not part of Kyoto. Again I ask, how can the government say it is not going to affect some parts more than others?

When I was in Halifax three weeks ago, I asked a cab driver if he thought Kyoto was a good idea. He said, “I know what Kyoto is. It is about that global warming and it is about health”. I then asked him if he thought it would affect him. He said, “Darn right it will”. He said that Halifax finally has an industry that is giving the city jobs and growth. Halifax is booming. He asked me if I knew why it is booming. He said, “Do you see those oil rigs that are being constructed out in the harbour and that are in for repairs? That is why it is booming”. He said that Halifax finally has an industry that is paying the people money and giving them jobs and, because government is government, he said to me, “You are going to take this away from us at the very time we are about to achieve something ourselves”. That is coming from a cab driver, who is saying that he has it figured out, that the federal government is going to damage his way of life.

I am not saying we should not do anything, and I will come to that, but I need 10 days to talk about the alternatives in technology that we could come up with. I am not going to take 10 days because my voice might not last, but let us think about the figures that we have just gone through. Let us think about what has to get hit for Canadians and how it is going to affect them if we sign on to Kyoto: transportation, power generation, manufacturing and industry, lost jobs, lost opportunity, higher power rates, higher gas prices and a hit on our economy.

I do not understand how the Americans could figure this out, how the Australians could figure this out or how Mexico could figure this out. Brazil figured it out. China and India, in Delhi two weeks ago, said they were never going to be part of Kyoto, that they will not be shutting down their economies. All of these other major producers of CO

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have it figured out, but we do not have it figured out. We are following along like little puppy dogs behind a Eurocentric plan that is out to get the U.S. That is my definition of Kyoto. I will elaborate on that geopolitical front a bit later when I have the opportunity.

So what is the Kyoto protocol? Let us go back and review that protocol. One of the major questions people ask is, what is the Kyoto protocol? It was signed in 1997. It requires 38 of the industrial countries to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels. The timeframe is that it must happen between 2008 and 2012. Fifty-five countries representing 55% of the emissions of industrialized countries must ratify Kyoto and then must enter into force in a legally binding agreement.

I have heard some people say that we can sign on to this and not have to live up to it. Let me read to the House from the Kyoto protocol about the penalties. It basically states that, according to the Marrakesh accord, nations that ratify Kyoto but do not meet their targets in round one by 2012 are penalized another 30% in emissions cuts and, in addition, such nations cannot sell carbon credits in round two. That makes it pretty clear that there are penalties associated with Kyoto.

Going on from the Kyoto protocol, it states, “in the case of compliance with emissions targets, annex 1 parties are granted 100 days after the expert review of their final annual emissions inventory has finished to make up any shortfall in compliance mainly through emissions trading”.

For Liberals out there or for Canadians out there who are listening to this, remember there are penalties. Beyond that, the European Union has said that it will introduce WTO action which will affect trade. There are definite penalties around the Kyoto protocol.

To go a little further into the history, because everybody asks what is Kyoto?, the environment minister in Ontario has said, “Kyoto is a Japanese car”. A lot of people are probably at the point where they really think Kyoto will not affect them and that it is some negotiated thing in a far off place, in a beautiful city in Japan. As I said yesterday, I expect that Kyoto probably wishes the meeting had not been there. It probably would have rather had it the Ottawa protocol and then the rest of the world could hate Ottawa. However the meeting was in Kyoto.

Let us go back to 1992. The United Nations framework on the convention of climate change included a legally binding voluntary pledge. I think a legally binding voluntary pledge is an oxymoron, but we signed it to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2000. We said we would freeze them and they would not increase.

Nobody did anything. If we look at most of the text of that, the whole purpose of it was the idea that within the United Nations there was a concept, probably correctly, that the north had developed all its natural resources, had been responsible for the production of CO

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into the environment and now they should pay the price. They should transfer money from the north to the south. Most countries bought into that.

What they did not understand was that when the money was transferred to a dictatorship someplace else, that money would not be used for environmental cleanup or to help the people of that country. Instead it would be used to buy F-18s or to invest in Swiss bank accounts. That is what corrupt governments do. They do not think about their people and they usually do not think about the environment.

In 1995 everybody realized that no one was living up to these international agreements and by 1997 we went to Kyoto. We signed this protocol. Everybody in the House during that period will remember the questions which were asked in the House. We asked the then environment minister about the plan and what would happen in Kyoto? Would she agree to this agreement on climate change? Was there an economic plan? Had the provinces been consulted? She did that the week before she left in Regina.

These questions were asked and the answer we received in the House was not to worry about it. The Liberals would not sign anything that would affect us negatively. The Liberals would not do anything to the Canadian people, the provinces and industry that would damage the economy or cost any money. It sounded pretty innocent.

The environment minister went off to Kyoto, and it appeared the Prime Minister was in charge of the file. At that time it was made very clear what our plan was.

Our plan was to ensure that whatever the Americans agreed to that we would beat them. Let us think about that for a minute. We had to beat the Americans. The Americans went there with all kinds of doubts, knowing that it was an economic disaster. They said that they would go 5% below 1990 levels. The Europeans did not do as well. Australia went 8% above 1990 levels. Others could not decide on a figure but said that they would come up with it later. Canada said it would go 6% below 1990 levels and beat the Americans. That was then the triumph back in the House in December 1997, when our environment minister returned and stood up in the House and said, “We had a great victory. We beat the Americans”.

Nobody paid much attention at that time because we had signed hundreds of agreements. The Auditor General said that we signed 200 environmental agreements in the last 10 years. She audited 60 of them and we had been a failure in most of them. We had not done anything. Therefore most people thought Kyoto was just another agreement that we would sign and do nothing about it.

We have somewhat of an international reputation now for doing things like that. We even call the President of the country next door, which is one of our best friends and a superpower, names. We are not too bright when it comes to some of these international negotiations.

However we agreed and without a plan, we then put that on the back burner and basically did very little.

In 1998, in Buenos Aires, there was a meeting of all the members who had signed on to Kyoto. Most of them said that they had some real problems with it. They had done some economic planning and would have to cut power production, or cut the use of fuel or cut air service. They said they would have to do a lot to achieve the goals. They left Buenos Aires in 1998 with really little resolve and with little resolution to move forward.

In 2000, there was another meeting at The Hague of the members of this umbrella group. Most of them not only went to the meeting but they went and said that they could not achieve the targets and left. At this point, a number of countries put forward their problems.

Then in February we went to Trieste. It was interesting because at this point some countries were starting to get the idea of this Kyoto thing.

Russia said that it could be a pretty good deal for it. It could sell credits and get billions of dollars from other countries by selling these credits. The developing countries said that it was a good deal for them because they did not have to hit their targets. The other developed countries would have to hit targets but they could sell more things to those countries and that would be good for their economies.

France said that it was okay. It could hit its targets because it was 80% nuclear. As long as it had nuclear power, it could support Kyoto. France thought it was a good deal because it could then start selling energy to other countries because it had clean energy.

Remember that the European Union is made up of 15 countries that can interchange credits, They can take credits from one country to the other. They have an internal credit trading system.

It was interesting that Germany said that it was okay too. It had credits for all the deindustrialized East Bloc countries. Italy said that it was okay because it had a fixed population, 55% were over 65 and its birth rate was .2%. Therefore it did not have a big problem with that.

Europe is in a totally different ball game. It is smaller, has better transportation, is not as cold, et cetera.

The real crunch came after Trieste when Christine Whitman, the environment minister in the U.S., said that she thought the Americans could go along with it and would come up a different plan. The Europeans would have nothing to do with that. Therefore, in March of 2001 the Americans said that they were opting out of Kyoto. That was a major blow to Kyoto at that time. The Americans were out.

I will talk about the American emissions in a few minutes, but their emissions have been dropping. Thirty-nine states will probably beat Kyoto. That just shows that if the people, the industry and the politicians are behind something it can happen. California is a good example. We always like to say that the Americans are not doing anything. They doing way more than we are, and it is not just talk. They are actually accomplishing something.

We then got to Bonn in July 2001. The former deputy prime minister went there on our behalf. He was in a fog a lot of the time, but he said that we had to have sinks and that we had to have energy credits for forest and agriculture.

That was the first time we had heard that sort of thing. That should have been introduced way back in the 1990s. Clean energy credits and sinks were never introduced. As a result of that Canada, said that if it was not given the sink credits we would opt out of Kyoto. That was probably the wisest thing that any government official ever said.

The Europeans were so set on keeping us in that they said they would give us the sinks for 30 megatonnes credit. We did not have to tell them how we would get there or how we would monitor it or anything, they would just give it to us. It was a throw away to keep us in the agreement. Following up on that, and I will talk about sinks in a few minutes, Canada took that as a great victory.

That is some of the history.

Kyoto Protocol November 26th, 2002

Madam Speaker, I am pleased you are back so that I will not have to review everything I said yesterday for your benefit. I am waiting for a few other members who were keen on getting this. They are just getting here. If I see them come in I will deal with the plan in detail.

They were interested in the 40 IPCC models that the United Nations developed. They would probably like me to review the 4,000 that were initially developed and broken down to 40 models. I decided that I would only have time for the 40 models. I want to explain modelling and the science behind it, how it works and the variabilities that we can have.

In case there are members here who did not have the benefit of hearing everything yesterday I want to state that our party does care about the environment. I care very much. I consider myself environmentally conscience. I have an environmental background with a training in biology. On that basis I will not go through those details again. I stand here in the House on a very serious issue.

We should deal with two subjects: pollution, and climate change and global warming. Both of those subjects deserve the attention of Canadians and of this House. They deserve the attention of all Canadians who care about their children, grandchildren and future generations.

I also briefly reviewed the position of the Liberals on so many things and highlighted their great deal of talk on air pollution and how their inaction has been startling when we think about some of the situations. I used the Fraser Valley as my best example of air pollution. There we have the second worst air shed in Canada and the federal government did almost nothing to get involved in that issue. It is still doing nothing and does not even bother to make representations before the NEB or before any of the hearings that have gone on or will be going on in the future.

The minister's basic argument is that we should all stop driving so much and not have as many cars. We do not need to have two car families and use so much carbon fuel. We should stop barbecuing to help the environment. We should not run our lawnmowers so often. This is the Liberal solution and commitment to air pollution. The Liberals talk big about downtown Toronto and how our cities are being polluted. But when it comes to action and legislation we see little commitment to carry that out.

I talked about water and the lack of commitment there. Literally the amount of one day of spending on the Kyoto protocol would go a long way to improve the water conditions of the world. Most people have said that if the money were allocated to clean water instead of emissions credits we could provide clean water for every single person in the world.

I talked about landfills and the fact that most of the modern world is not putting its garbage into the ground any more. There is a ticking time bomb leaking into our water tables. There are much better ways in which the world is dealing with garbage. The Great Lakes, the Sydney tar ponds, uranium in the north, all those are examples of where the government has done little.

While talking about water, our third world status of putting sewage into the oceans in such notable places as Victoria, the home and constituency of the environment minister, should never be forgotten if we want to see an example being set for future generations of the caring, feel good, hand over heart kind of philosophy that the government has.

I talked about Kyoto and some of the history of it and the fact that during the whole negotiation process Canada negotiated rather poorly. It had a poorly set economic and implementation plan that did little to help itself. Canada's aim was to go 1% below the Americans. On the other hand the Australians had a plan. They knew the economics and have since opted out.

I talked about the questions that Canadians are asking because they do not understand Kyoto. Yesterday I could not help but talk about my visit to Hamilton on Sunday and about how many people in the audience said they had never really heard about or understood how Kyoto would affect them. I thought about the people driving down the road in all kinds of vehicles and how the federal government was about to do something that would impact every single one of us, our families, grandchildren and future generations.

That is the point we have to get across and the reason I want to speak today about Kyoto. Some 63 members in my party want to talk in detail about Kyoto. We want Canadians to understand that it would impact them. The Canadians I am talking about are a little different from the Canadians who the government has consulted. I am talking about families with two kids worrying about making a living, paying for their house, driving their kids to soccer, and single moms and people on fixed incomes and so on. Those are the people I am talking about.

Those are the Canadians who have not been consulted and do not understand what Kyoto is all about. Those are the people who would be impacted by Kyoto. Those are not the people who would become part of the hearings. Those are not the people who read the newspaper every day. Those are the people who would be most dramatically hit by what Kyoto would bring about. My party will talk about that.

I find it extremely offensive that the environment minister spends his time travelling across this country talking about the doomsday scenario. He is Chicken Little and the sky is falling. He runs across this country saying that the floods, ice storms, and droughts on the Prairies would end as soon as we sign Kyoto.

That is absolutely not true. History has told us that. We have had droughts for a long time. I talked yesterday about the 17th century and the 70 year drought on the Prairies. The fact is that droughts have been getting shorter in time. When John Palliser came to the Prairies he said the land would never be farmed because it was so dry.

These are the things Canadians need to realize. The government's Chicken Little philosophy is not based on science. It is not based on anything. The government talked about little Johnny's asthma being cured by Kyoto. Health and pollution are certainly a subject that the government should deal with but this agreement is about climate change, about global warming and about CO

2.

The minister in his speech yesterday talked about the IPCC and how wonderful it was. We will talk further about that and the 40 IPCC models. About 200 world scientists are recommending what will happen and the variability there.

I introduced the idea of adaptation and how important it is and would be and always has been to the people of the world. People must adapt to changing conditions. These conditions do not change overnight. These conditions change over hundreds of years.

I pointed out that we have had eight ice ages and eight interglacial ice periods. We happen to be in one now. There will be a ninth ice age. Scientists agree with that. In fact nobody disagrees with that. Yet this government would imply that it is not possible and of course it is wrong.

Yesterday I used quotes from the Prime Minister and what he has said. He said the government would have a plan and would not push it down anybody's throat. He said the government would ensure that all parts of the country are treated equally. The Prime Minister also said that Kyoto would not hurt us at all and so on, all of which we know is not true.

I also, of course, talked about the football game, which was an excellent game. I compared the Minister of the Environment to the Viagra man. The reactions were a little different. The Viagra man is very happy jumping over his picket fence. The environment minister would jump over his picket fence, crying, “The world is falling. The insects will take over the world. Man, woman and child will die”. He did not do that but I expected him to.

We also talked about the industry minister, the health minister, and the hon. member for LaSalle—Émard and all the things he said.

Then we started reviewing the so-called plan, the powder-puff PowerPoint presentation of the government. We talked about that plan. I know a lot of members here would like me to review that and make sure we talk about it item by item, because that is probably one of the most important things.

Before I do that, and so we have the opportunity to review this, I want to again go through exactly what Kyoto is all about. We must remember that the public, whether they be in Victoria or Halifax, have asked some questions: First, what is Kyoto? Second, what effect will it have on me? Third, how does it affect my family? Fourth, what will it cost me? Fifth, how will it change my life? Sixth, what will it do for the environment? All Canadians care about the environment. The last question they ask, is there a better way?

I want to spend a lot of today talking about a better way. What is a better way than Kyoto? In the next few hours we will talk about that better way, what exactly that might be and what a Canadian Alliance government would do, if we were in power, to involve Canadians, the provinces and industry.

If people were to turn on any newscast today they would see the government's total failure at getting the provinces and industry on side. Of course every day that goes by the polls tell us that Canadians are not on side. I expect that in another several months a majority of Canadians will say no to Kyoto and yes to a much better plan. Our job, of course, as the Official Opposition, is to make sure Canadians understand what a better way is.

The better way is not the status quo and not doing nothing. The better way to is come up with a plan that will work, that Canadians will be a part of and that industry and provincial governments will work into. Provincial governments are the ones that will be delivering on whatever agreement we come up with.

I will make a Kyoto presentation for hon. members. This is the kind of presentation that I would make at a town hall meeting when I am dealing with a variety of Canadians. I can think of a town hall in Vancouver or one we did in Calgary just a week ago. I can think of a town hall in my own constituency. We also have done some in Ontario. This is the sort of presentation I would give and I will share some of that information with the House.

First, what are the accepted facts that we should deal with when we talk about Kyoto? We should first realize that climate change is occurring and it has always been occurring. No one would say that the climate stays constant. There was a period historically in the 18th century when people were predicting that they could control climate totally. Governments were actually saying that if they took control they could control climate.

I do not think we would find anybody agreeing with that being possible today. We cannot even predict the weather for tomorrow or next week, let alone, with Kyoto, trying to predict the weather for 100 or 1,000 years from now. They tried that in the 18th century and finally agreed they could not do that. Here we are again with a government that is saying that it will predict climate.

Let us agree that climate changes. Climate changes slowly over time. Ten thousand years is the sort of segment that we should be dealing in. We can examine what the weather was like in those time periods by taking ice samples and cores samples from the centre of the earth. We can examine what the climate has been like.

Let us remember, as I said, that there have been eight glacial and eight interglacial periods. There has been in the last 100 years a build up of CO

2

. CO

2

has increased by about 40% in the last 100 years. We can also agree that the temperature has increased.

With that temperature increase there are some problems. If we take the figures we will come up with about a 0.6° Celsius increase in the last 100 years. The problem is that only for the about the last 25 years have we been taking temperatures from satellites. We have 23 satellites that record the weather every second of the day around the world.

How did we take temperature before that? We took it from ground stations for about the last 100 years. We have had ground stations, usually close to cities and airports in the last 50 years, and that is where we take our temperature. However we must remember that a huge percentage of the earth is covered by water. How did we get the water temperatures out in the ocean? We asked sea captains to take the temperature and record its exact position and then send that in to a data collection centre.

One hundred years ago some of those sea captains probably did not really know where they were. Probably they did not really take those samples. Some of them probably made those samples up. The point is, to say that those are accurate temperature samples, most scientists would question them.

In the last 23 years of satellite recording there has not been much change in temperature.

We also must remember that the ground stations that temperatures are recorded from today have now become more and more populated areas. Everyone knows that the temperature in a city is higher than the temperature out in the countryside. Obviously some scientists are arguing that maybe there has not been a major temperature increase. Of course, no one is saying that it has been above 0.9° Celsius in the last 100 years. This Chicken Little, “we are going to burn”, really is not based on any science at all.

The third thing we should talk about are the CO

2

levels. Yes, the CO

2

levels have increased by 40% in the last 100 years by calculation. Some people say that it is 30% and some say that it is 40% but let us say that is 40%. Probably, and most likely, that is because of the burning of carbon fuels, the breakdown of carbon fuels. It also is because, of course, that we have gone now to 6 billion people and every one of us breathes out carbon dioxide because we are animals. That is part of the process of respiration. Plants take in CO

2

in photosynthesis and produce carbohydrates and animals in breathing release CO

2

Yes, there is more CO

2

but in the historical past in the ice cores there are periods of time where CO

2

was way higher than it is today. We must remember that the more CO

2

we have the more photosynthesis we have. Obviously that is reason we have plants and great plant life throughout many parts and the country. I live in an area that was an 800 foot deep inland ocean and there was a great deal of plant life that lived there. We have an abundance of oil and gas today because as it decayed and deposited that is what produced the pockets of oil and gas.

During that time there were hundreds of times more CO

2

than there are now and yet some of the Liberals would have us believe that the only source of CO

2

is humans and human activity. The Mount Etna volcano today releases way more CO

2

than all the animals put together would ever produce. Some would say that at least 90% is from nature and 5% to 10% is from human activity. We are talking about a very small percentage of human involvement in CO

2

What I have just gone through are some of the accepted facts that scientists would agree to.

What are not accepted facts and what facts are under scientific debate? First, has the release of CO

2

from our fossil fuels contributed to global warming? Is that why it is warmer today than it was 100 years ago? There is a lot of uncertainty on that. How much effect have humans actually had on building up the CO

2

? That is a major question that scientists cannot answer today. I will be quoting some of them when we look at the models, which is where we can deal with that issue.

Second, will increasing CO

2

emissions contribute to future climate change? Again we have a great deal of scientific discussion. The IPCC says that it will take at least 10 more years before it understands the science well enough to build the models. It has tried modelling based on facts of the past and most of the models have totally failed. When we get to modelling we will discuss that further.

What are the factors driving climate change? Let us assume that it is a happening and that it is a serious problem. The evidence tells us that 97% of greenhouse gases are water vapour. CO

2

is a major component of the other 3% but also in that is methane and all kinds of other things. In fact some of the science even says that what the sun does, and the influence of sun spots and sun activity, is more important than anything else in creating changes in the greenhouse gas composition and CO

2

levels. However, we will get into that as we go on.

The next major point that we need to make is that greenhouse gases are necessary. All of a sudden, because of Chicken Little, most Canadians would say that we have to get rid of all the greenhouse gases. The greenhouse gases are 97% water vapour. It is what makes our clouds, what protects the earth from the sun's rays and what keeps the temperature on earth 37° Celsius warmer than it would be without greenhouse gases.

If we lowered the temperature of the earth by 37° Celsius we would not have life. We would not have plants and animals. We would have nothing. Greenhouse gases are necessary. The problem, according to Kyoto, is that the greenhouse gases are too intense, are bouncing too much heat back to the earth's surface and that is a problem if we do not want it to get warmer.

I think people in certain parts of Canada might argue, “Hey, right on for greenhouse gases”, with Ottawa being one of them. The people in Ottawa certainly could stand a few degrees warmer and if greenhouse gases could make that happen I guess they might say that is a good trade off.

However the minister was right when he said that in places like sub-Saharan Africa those extra few degrees could make a heck of a lot of difference and certainly could damage them. That is a given.

So we should address the question of climate change. We are not arguing that. Then we need to ask, what are the sources of these gas emissions? Let us remember that Kyoto is targeting CO

2.

That is what it is all about. It is about CO

2

, so let us look at where we get that CO

2

from, on the industrial side of things and the human side of things. The figures look something like this: about 25% of our CO

2

comes from transportation; 4% comes from landfill gases; 10% from agriculture; 10% from buildings; 16% from power generation; 17% from mining and manufacturing, from industry; and 18% from oil and gas.

Let us look at those figures, then, and look at the fact that the minister and the Prime Minister say that we are not going to be affected by any changes, that Kyoto will not cost us any more, that it will not really do anything. We are talking about the reduction of CO

2

to 6% below 1990 levels. Today we are 20% above 1990 levels. From 1999 to 2000, we went from 15% above to 20% above 1990 levels. Canadians are increasing their CO

2

output dramatically.

If we are going to reduce CO

2

as Kyoto commits us to do, what will we have to do? Let us look at the big numbers, such as 25% from transportation. We will have to cut 23% of our release of CO

2

from transportation. That means, then, that if we drive a car, if we ride a train, if we ride a bus or if we fly in an airplane, we will need to have a 23% reduction in all of those things. That means that the cabinet ministers' cars that are parked in front of this building are going to have to be turned off. That also means that those cars out there will have to be little ones. That is what it means. Those cars are running all day out there. That is setting the example for Canadians about reducing CO

2

from transportation.

Kyoto Protocol November 25th, 2002

Yes, in 1970 we had that already.

We do not have a plan for how we will achieve these targets. There is no plan for which industries will commit to this.

We have a gap of 240 megatonnes but let me talk about some of the methods to get to the first 80 megatonnes. Everyone will have to come back tomorrow to hear about those because they are so ridiculous no one will believe them. I know everyone looks forward to hearing about that. Then I will talk about the 100 megatonnes and the 60 megatonnes. I am priming everyone to be ready for tomorrow.

The federal government goes on to say that it has invested $1.6 billion already. I would like to know where that $1.6 billion is. I do not think that much could be spent on CBC advertising. This is the kind of stuff we have. It is pretty glitzy. It is multicoloured. It tells us why climate change is bad and all the wonderful things about the government. It has great pictures and really good stuff, but that does not amount to $1.6 billion. Maybe the PowerPoint thing cost $1 million or $2 million, but we have spent $1.6 billion.

It says that action plan 2000 will lead to a 50 megatonne reduction by 2010. I tried to figure that one out, that is insulating our houses, triple pane glass and all those kinds of things. The industry says that we have saved about three megatonnes. The government is counting on 50 megatonnes. It is a slight different calculation but it is kind of close. It is Liberal math.

This is a good one. We will get 30 megatonnes from agriculture and four sinks. The problem with that is that forestry and agriculture, as far as I understand, are provincial, but we know who will get the credits for these. Who is taking credit for the sinks? The federal government. It will take 30 megatonnes of credit.

How does the government know it is 30 megatonnes? I tried to ask scientists how we would know that. They said that young trees absorb more CO

2

than old trees. It is just like old people and young people. It is like the member over there. He probably does not eat as much as some younger members do. I again asked one of the “Suzuki-ites” if they wanted to cut down all the old growth forests because they were not absorbing enough CO

2

. That did not go over that well. I also asked about having some nuclear power plants in every city. That did not seem to strike home very much either.

However somewhere the government will have to figure out how many trees we have and how much agriculture we have to come up with 30 megatonnes. I was told by scientists that the only way that could be done was to estimate all the trees in all the forests and then do the math to come up with the CO

2

level, but it could not just be done by saying that all forests are the same age. We would have to age the forest and then decide right across the country.

I can sort of imagine the bureaucrats out there driving down the road counting the young, the old and the medium age trees. It should create a really good bureaucracy and maybe all those people who are working in the auto industry could become tree counters and figure out how many sinks we have. I am sure taxpayers would really love to pay for that. We have a lot of questions about the 30 megatonnes from agriculture and forestry sinks.

Does anyone know what the Europeans said about that in Johannesburg? I specifically asked them about that. They said that when they had their meeting in Bonn, Canada was ready to leave Kyoto. They said that they wanted to keep Canada in as their bridge to the Americans so they did a throw away. They gave Canada 30 megatonnes for its sinks and did not give a damn how we came up with that number. It was a throw away to keep Canada in the agreement at the Bonn negotiations last year. When a government does something like that it gives us great confidence that the government really cares about the environment.

I have a lot of material to go through here but let me talk about the 100 megatonnes. The member had to go home for lunch but he will be back tomorrow so he can find out more details. However, regarding the 100 megatonnes, this is the plan. We are going to have targeted measures to support individual action by consumers. Let us think about that for a minute: targeted measures to support individual action by consumers. I guess that means that if I do not buy something that is made from carbon I will get some kind of an incentive.

Something concerns me here. When I built my house 11 years ago I put in triple pane glass and extra insulation. Will I be able to apply to the government and get a credit for that? The Liberals are telling me that they will support individual consumer action. Therefore, if I do something good I should get the payout. Someone should give me the money. I should get a cheque from someone. I think that is what that says.

It says we will have a comprehensive approach to industrial emissions including domestic emissions trading, technology and infrastructure investment and targeted measures. If one were to translate that one, industry would get a cheque too. The only problem is, where will all the money to handle all this come from? We will be getting cheques for emissions and for consumer buying but then it says, “direct government participation in international credit markets”.

Translating that, it says that the Canadian government, with my tax money and everyone else's, will buy credits from Russia or wherever, will transfer $1 billion and will get hot air in return. It will sell those to Canadian companies and Canadian companies will keep putting out the same amount of CO

2

. I do not understand how that helps the environment. I understand how it could buy fighter jets and how it could provide Swiss bank accounts in those countries but I do not understand how it will help the environment.

We must remember that all Liberals care about the environment. They talk about it. They love it. They will do everything for it except take any action. They are going to buy these international credits. One day we hear government members saying that they will buy credits and the next day they are saying they will not. They are saying that they will buy credits in some parts of the country but in other parts of the country they will not. The Minister of the Environment very conveniently has a different speech for different places.

However the point is that will not help the environment. Kyoto is not about the environment. It started out in 1992 as a transfer of wealth. It was the dirty, rotten north that became rich by exploiting and raping its natural resources and the poor south did not do anything. It was a transfer of wealth from the north to the south. That is how it started. It was a great socialist plot. The Liberals believe everyone should share in all of these things. The problem is that it does not work that way. If that money is sent to a corrupt government that money will be used for F-18s or put into Swiss bank accounts.

It is not going to help the environment. It is not going to help the people. We are sending it to countries that have far worse pollution problems than we do and we have not even started talking about developing countries yet. We will do that later because that is a whole other big issue for Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Hopefully the House can sit extra hours so we can put forward all this material that we have.

What about future actions? The government wants to deal with these. It says that we are going to have partnership initiatives and we are going to save 30 megatonnes. We are going to have technological investments for 10 megatonnes, provincial action for 20 megatonnes, municipal reduction plans, 10 megatonnes, consumer challenge, 7 megatonnes, credits for clean energy exports, 70 megatonnes.

Those are the numbers, but how are we going to do it? What does it possibly mean when the government says it is going to do it? How realistic is it? Where does the money come from? How does it work? What does that mean to the average Canadian who asks, “Is this going to make my fuel bill higher? Are my transportation costs going up? Is it going to cost me more to heat my house?”

That is where that is coming from. It has to come from somewhere. I do not believe the government has any idea where it is going to get those cuts from. Those headings that I read give an indication of how unrealistic this is.

I will wrap up for today by saying that I do not think the government has a plan. I do not think it has a clue what it is going to cost. I do not think it knows how it is going to implement it. We can prove that by looking at the facts.

The government just does not know how it is going to deal with climate change. It is quite happy to con Canadians into believing that it is for their health, that it is for little Johnny's asthma that we are signing Kyoto. It is not about that at all. It is about climate change. It is about global warming. It is about CO

2

. That is what we will go on to talk about.

I know that the one particular member across the way who has had a lot to say looks forward to the plans tomorrow and how we can develop this in much more detail. I hope he will bring his friends because it is very important that we get to all of these issues.

I am just waiting, Madam Speaker, for you to tell me when I need to sit down for today.

Kyoto Protocol November 25th, 2002

Obviously the member does not know the difference between a plant and an animal. I will tell him about that in another lesson on another day. The member has a long way to go before we get there.

People ask how we will stop our carbon use. Obviously when we go through this plan we will find that the government is saying that we need to cut our CO

2

release by 20% per person, by about one tonne per person per year. We need to ask what that means.

I refer again to Hamilton because the results were so startling yesterday. I talked about CO

2

and where it came from, the government's plan to have smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles and that sort of thing. A guy jumped up and said he worked at the Windstar factory which I think is in Oakville. He said what I was saying would affect his job.

Will the manufacturing plant downsize and make smaller vehicles to fit the Kyoto target? It is not likely if its major market is the U.S. Remember that we are a very small market. What may happen to those jobs? They may well move somewhere else. All of a sudden the light bulb came on. He said that would affect him. Yes, it will affect every Canadian.

I was driving 120 km on Highway 401 and everybody else was driving 130 km or 140 km. Everybody was passing me. I looked at those people in the eye and thought, do they know that they will have to slow down or take the train? I do not think they understand that.

The government has not communicated with people about Kyoto. People have no idea that they are going to be affected like that.

I listen to the Europeans talk at some of these meetings. They say we pay 72¢ for a litre of gas. Mind you, that is in Alberta; here it is 66¢ or 62¢. I cannot quite figure that out. I should ask the Minister of Transport why gas is always cheaper here than it is in the place from where it comes, but that is another issue totally.

The Europeans say we should pay $2.50 a litre for gas and that is how we will reduce consumption and change the habits of people. That may be fine in Europe. It may be fine where people can take a train, where there is a train, but there are not many trains in most parts of Canada. It is a big country compared to Europe. It is a big country compared to France, Italy and Germany. We cannot draw the same conclusions that the Europeans draw for this sort of thing.

When we talk about these polls, 78% of people believe that the federal government needs to spend more time investigating the cost and impact of the accord before implementing it. A recent poll says that 78% of Canadians think more work has to be done before this thing is ratified and 71% say it is possible to have a made in Canada solution that would cost the economy a lot less.

That really comes down to Canadians saying that rather than send $1 billion to Russia to buy credits, would it not be better to spend $1 billion in Canada on research and development to become leaders in fuel cells, windmills, or whatever type of high tech we are going toward. The use of hydrogen fuel will be where we are going. At this point, we are not leaders in that area because we do not have a government commitment.

Canadians are beginning to say we will bankrupt the country. We will not have money to put into research and development and a lot of those companies will simply leave in disgust because of the way the government is handling the file.

When we look at this, the support is falling rapidly. If we wonder why the government is speeding things through, we should look at Saturday's Globe and Mail . The headline was “Kyoto support dips as ratification nears”. That is exactly what the government is worried about. It is worried that the longer it holds off on this and the more Canadians find out, the better the chance that they would defeat it. It is just like the Charlottetown accord. The fact that the government is hiding it from Canadians, it is pretty obvious what is happening.

When it comes to the polling that the Liberals do and they use our money to do so, they will get quite a surprise. Canadians will get a surprise when they realize who will really be paying for an awful lot of these things. That will be a huge surprise to them, because certainly the Liberals have not indicated that will be the case.

Let us look at how the plan came about. There was a supply day on October 24. Is it not amazing that on that morning we got a call telling us there would be a briefing for Liberal MPs at 8:30 and for opposition MPs at 9:30. Our briefing started at about 9:40. The Liberal briefing was ahead of that. Is it not amazing that is when the plan came out? It came out the very day that we had our supply day.

If we look at the facts, I think the photocopiers were pretty busy that night. I think a lot of bureaucrats had to work all night putting together the plan, the powder puff, PowerPoint presentation. They had to put that thing together. As we will see tomorrow when we look at the plan, there are some really big holes in it. There are some really stupid statements in that report. Obviously somebody who did not understand anything about science, climate change or any of those issues, had to come up with some of those ridiculous ideas.

I will start with the first draft, the climate change draft plan. I am afraid I will not be able to get through all of it today. I will probably start again tomorrow to refresh everybody's memory so they know where we are.

Let us start off with the general points that are made in the first part. The first statement is that the science is clear. I think we would find a lot of argument among the 17,000 scientists. The many scientists who are now responding to Kyoto would say the science is not clear, that the science is at least 10 years away.

I want to talk a fair amount later on. Of course I know that most members would like me to read into the record, Bjørn Lomborg's The Skeptical Environmentalist. I am sure hon. members would like me to read all of it, but I will just read selected parts of it into the record in a few days.

Let us talk about the science. The government said on the first page, “The science is clear”. I am saying there are a lot of scientists who would disagree with that. Then it says that we can establish a competitive edge by joining the rest of the industrial world, even if the U.S. is not part of Kyoto. I think that is a huge underestimation of the importance of the U.S. market in Canada.

It says that we can just move ahead and ignore the U.S. Well we are not only going to ignore the U.S., we are going to ignore the Americas. We are going to ignore our NAFTA partners like Mexico; we are going to ignore Chile, Argentina and Brazil, all countries that we trade with. We are saying that we can trade with the good guys that sign onto Kyoto.

Let us look at who those good guys are. When we examine who they are and we look at the percentage of our trade with those countries, we know we have some big problems. If 85% to 90% of our trade is with the U.S., how can we make the statement that we can establish a competitive edge by joining the rest of the industrialized world? What kind of a comment is that? Remember that China, the number two producer of CO

2

, and India, the number five producer of CO

2

, are not part of this. That makes a pretty big difference.

Let us go on to the next statement. It says that the U.S. may join Kyoto in future and already we will be far ahead of the Americans. The problem is that the Americans are doing something. There are 39 states that actually are going to reach Kyoto targets and better. We have our heads in the sand. We are going to be at 35% more emissions than 1990 and 39 of the American states are going to beat the Kyoto target. We are going to have a competitive advantage over them because we are going to slash 35% of our production? I do not understand the logic of that, yet that is a statement from the power point presentation.

It says that modelling suggests cost impacts will be modest and costs will be offset by investments in technology and other advancements of doing business in Canada, like livable cities, exchange rates and social services. How long have we been trotting out that little thing, that our health care system is the best?

The World Health Organization rated us 30th. We are 30th in the world for health care and we are trotting out that our social services are better than everywhere else. I do not think Mr. Romanow is going to say that on Thursday and that is the government's own report. I do not think our big cities are any more livable than some of the cities in some of the other parts of the world. That is having one's head in the sand and not even knowing it is there.

It says that innovation and technology are the keys to growing the economy while reducing emissions. Boy is that ever true, but when we start buying emissions credits and penalizing business to get them down to this artificial target, how are we going to have the money for innovation and technology?

We are getting the idea from these statements. The government will have to raise taxes. The money has to come from somewhere. Will that make us more productive? I question it.

It says that we must ensure a strong overall investment climate. Let us examine that. Right now we are suffering an investment freeze. EnCana is taking $100 million out of its fourth quarter and putting it into Venezuela. Petro-Canada and all kinds of other companies are holding off on development. We have fourth quarter slowdown in all kinds of industry in this country because of the uncertainty of Kyoto, and it says that we must ensure a strong overall investment climate. We are doing just the opposite. We are creating an investment freeze in this country.

It says that the government has held extensive consultations. I have talked about those consultations. I do not know where they have gone on because Canadians do not feel they have been consulted. Provinces do not feel they have been adequately consulted. The manufacturers right here in Ontario do not feel they have been consulted. The government has held those consultations behind closed doors.

It says that the fundamental approach is national engagement. I am reading from the report. Canadians are just starting to get engaged and are finding out what this is about.

It talks about a made in Canada plan, evergreen, step by step in partnership. I cannot help but think of that Viagra ad, with the minister jumping over his white picket fence and Canadians jumping all around him. Canadians are not there yet. They are not part of this.

It says there would be no undue burden on any sector or region. How many times have we heard that? Tell me that the manufacturing sector, the oil and gas industry and the power plants would not be affected.

Members should recall that over 50% of the energy produced in Canada comes from coal. Coal is the dirtiest producer of CO

2

. It produces more CO

2

, and we are 50% dependent on it. What would we do, shut down the coal plants? If we do, what would we replace them with? We could ask Mr. Suzuki if he wants a nuclear power plant in every backyard? Is that the source of energy? It does not produce CO

2

. I do not think that is a solution.

It talks about adequate and prudent funding. I do not know what that means so I cannot interpret what that is. Funding for what, for whom and from where?

It talks about open process, concrete timelines and no surprises. These are general points of this so-called plan. We will have no surprises. We will know everything. Canadians will know all the costs. I do not know because a lot has to happen in the next few days for that claim to come through.

It says that Canadian participation is necessary for credibility of the protocol. That is putting one's hand right over one's heart and saying, “Right on, guys. You really have it.” Lots of talk, but no action.

It talks about credit for clean energy exports. We must work on energy exports and clean energy credits. This is the best one of all, probably. We are asking the Europeans to give us credit for selling our clean energy to the U.S. We sell lots of gas to the U.S. We are saying to the Europeans to give us at least x number of megatonnes credit for that. But where do the Europeans get their gas from? They get their gas almost exclusively from Russia. If they agree to clean energy credits for Canada, they would have to give Russia clean energy credits for the gas that it sells. Russia already has credits. Why would the Europeans ever agree to give it more? Because they would have to buy them from Russia. Mr. Putin made it clear that he wanted billions of dollars. He did not want millions, he wanted billions of dollars for his clean energy credits.

We send coal to Japan. Are those negative credits because we sell coal to somebody? I guess if we take it all fair and square we would get negative credits. I suppose that is what that means.

It says we need large adjustments through many pragmatic steps. It was getting late as we got through these things and probably whoever thought up these points was getting fairly tired at this point.

The next part of this document goes on to modelling and it talks about how these models work. I am really kind of lucky because I have a daughter who does modelling. She just finished a project with the German government. She is now working in the Netherlands. She designs computer programs and models. Her last project was to design a model for the German government for what the German social requirements would be in the year 2055. That was the model that she designed. She showed it to me. I could not understand a single word of it, but that is modelling.

I asked her about the modelling that the IPCC was using. I asked her to read that section on modelling. In modelling, it depends what one puts in as to what one gets out. This plan says that the overall economic impact would be modest.

That sounds good, but that is because the model used 3¢ per barrel of oil and $10 a tonne for buying emissions credits. Right now it is at $38 but $10 was used in the model.

It says that when this emissions trading begins in the European Union on January 1, it is estimated the price would escalate. The Canadian government says if the Americans are not there the price would not get too high. If the Americans are in, it would be $500. If the Americans are not in, it would be less than $100. However, in the model $10 and 3¢ are used. How accurate is the model? Sure it could say that the economic impact would be modest. Obviously if we were to put in modest numbers we would get modest results, but that is not the reality.

It says the impacts would be balanced across all sectors and regions. How in blazes would that happen? There has been no sector by sector plan. For us to understand that statement we would have to know how much we would penalize each sector: the oil and gas industry, the manufacturers and the automobile industry? How much would each sector have to pay for these credits? That is the only way we could have an accurate model.

It says that the variation in impacts would be small relative to the accuracy of the overall modelling. When we talk about modelling and the 40 models that the IPCC has, these impacts could be very great, particularly economic impacts and what they might mean. Models are only as good as what we put into them and only as accurate as the figures and input items.

It talks about investment and new markets. The Canadian government puts a lot of store in the fact that we would have all these new markets and technology. That is all well and good and I am sure we have Canadian entrepreneurs who would benefit from Kyoto, but the real question is who has the leadership today? We would find, if we looked at Denmark, Germany, or the U.S., that they are leaders in this technology. They started working on it in 1992, after the real conference.

Some of those entrepreneurs said, “There is money to be made here. Let's get in on that”. They developed a phenomenal number of windmills and all kinds of alternate technologies. Canada is not a leader in that area and will not have the jobs there. We have 10 years to catch up before we can do that.

It says that Canadian companies can take the lead in several fields of technology. It does not point out what those are. I guess again that it is kind of a we are going to be leaders in something statement.

It says that investments in leading edge, capital stock, and state of the art technology is key to competitiveness. Is that ever true? However, we have not done that. We have not been investing nor encouraging the development of that technology.

It talks about fair and competitive tax treatment, strategic investments in critical technology and long term technological approach. Translated that says we must have a fair and competitive tax system. Fair and competitive to whom? I believe fair and competitive to our number one competition, the United States.

The United States will not be part of Kyoto. It will develop it on an incentive basis. It is putting $4.6 billion into fuel cell research. What is Canada doing? We are putting $7 million over 10 years into research and development. What will that develop?

It is fine to say that we will have fair and competitive tax treatment and we will have strategic investment in critical technology. Who is investing? We are behind. We needed to start this in 1992 and we did not. We sat on our hands and did nothing.

Risk management is the next topic. “We will work with industry to reduce uncertainties, limit risks and impact on competitiveness”. I guess that means the Canadian manufacturers, the group of industries that have come together as part of a coalition, the oil and gas industry, the chambers of commerce across Canada are saying no to Kyoto and this is saying that we will work with industry to reduce uncertainties, limit risk and impact on competitiveness. Those are fine words. The problem is that is not being done.

“We'll build in contingencies to limit risk of measures”. Does that mean the government will provide guaranteed loans to any industry that wants to develop an innovative project? That might be fine, but the problem is who pays for that. Where does that money come from? Do we take it out of health care? Do we take it out of agriculture? What do we take it out of? Perhaps we could take it out of some of the government waste and boondoggles in this place.

“We will work in conjunction with the U.S.” That is the next item. I am pretty sure calling the President a moron will really help us to work with the U.S. I am sure that makes us really popular in that community. How would we like it if we heard politicians from other countries calling our Prime Minister something? I would defend him. We are in Canada. It is fine for the Americans to call their President something, but it is not for us. That is sure not going to help.

“We will keep open Canada's long term undertaking under the protocol. No commitments for the second commitment period”. Let us talk about that for a minute. We will not commit to the second period. We will only commit to the first. The first is from 2008 to 2012. The next period is 2012 onward. The problem with this whole thing is that we will not be able to live up to our commitments. We will not be 6% below 1990 levels. It is impossible.

What are the penalties? It is fine for the members to say that there are no penalties. There are. When we go through the protocol, we will find a 30% penalty when a country does not achieve its commitment by 2012. Besides that, the Europeans will go to the WTO to impose other penalties on countries that do not ratify Kyoto. That is to go directly after the Americans but we get caught in the crossfire because we will not achieve our commitments either.

When the government talks about risk management, I do not think it understands what that means. There is a big risk in ratifying Kyoto and not living up to it. I have heard Liberals say that they will ratify it just like they have the other agreements. Let me quote the statement of the Auditor General which is very clear. In the 3 documents she went through, 200 binding international agreements have been signed by Canada in the last 10 years. She states:

The federal government is not investing enough—enough of its human and financial resources; its legislative, regulatory, and economic powers; or its political leadership—to fulfil its sustainable development commitments. The result is a growing environmental, health, and financial burden that our children will have to bear.

That is the record. She audited 60 of those 200 and we received a failing grade on those 60. If we think we will do that with Kyoto, we will pay the penalty. The penalties are clear: a 30% penalty in the year 2012 and we will have WTO restrictions put on our trade. That will not cost anyone anything? That will not cost our exporters anything? I think we had better examine this one pretty carefully.

Let us go on and examine this document. This is the first plan. We had another one which was a stapled photocopy. This is the actual PowerPoint copy. Let us see what we will do. Actions that are underway are 80 megatonnes. We have taken care of 80 megatonnes. Actions that we are planning for are 100 megatonnes. The third category is 60 megatonnes and we do not know how we will do that.

Tomorrow I will examine the 80 megatonnes and then I will examine the 100 megatonnes. God help us to figure out what the other 60 are. The government says that it will be clean energy credits from the U.S. We are not getting those. We can wait until hell freezes over and we will not get those. We can wait until the ninth ice age and we will not get those clean energy credits.

Kyoto Protocol November 25th, 2002

Anyway, these are the sorts of questions that people ask. People ask, what is CO

2

? As we remember, CO

2

is used for photosynthesis. Animals undergo respiration and give off CO

2

. I am simplifying this. Plants undergo photosynthesis and take in CO

2

. The more plants we have, the more CO

2

is absorbed. The biggest absorbers of CO

2

are the oceans. They are the biggest sinks that there are for absorbing CO

2

Kyoto Protocol November 25th, 2002

Thank you, Madam Speaker, for bringing decorum to the House. Obviously we are talking about a very important subject that many Canadians care an awful lot about.

I must apologize for not putting out a notice so Liberal members could have been here to hear my comments. I will do that tomorrow and I will try to give them a breakdown of the areas to which I will be speaking so they can be prepared a bit to ask some questions. I would not be afraid to have them ask me questions. The minister of course was very afraid and did not allow questions to be asked.

The IPCC is a group of 200 scientists. These scientists really care about climate change. They are a lot of good, top-notch people. As I said, I will be quoting from a number of texts prepared by the IPCC in relation to its studies. It is working with 40 different models right now and those 40 different models come up with very different conclusions. This obviously will be for the benefit of some of the members across because most of the Canadian public may not be quite as interested in these models as they are.

I have noticed in the so-called PowerPoint presentation of the government that it actually gives no credit at all to technology. It does not look to the future. It does not talk about the advances of technology. Instead, it deals in hypothetical kinds of things, picking the models it wants to pick and picking the few examples it wants to. As we go through it line by line we can then examine exactly where the flaws are and where there should be some clarity before we ratify the proposal.

The other thing the government really fails to do is give any credit at all to humans, animals or plants for adaptation. In all my university biology I learned about adaptation and the adaptation that animals, plants, insects and bacteria undergo in order to change. Adaptation is the way to go. It really is too bad that someone might be under water in 100 years but with a little adaptation they could handle it. Certainly the Netherlands demonstrated that it could handle that sort of climatic change without very much trouble. It will not happen tomorrow. It will happen over hundreds and hundreds of years and people will adapt. That is what is important.

Then we get to the consultation part of it. We need to really look at that term because the minister keeps using it saying that he has consulted so widely that everybody understands this. Well the people do not understand what Kyoto is about. Maybe that is Parliament's fault. Maybe that is the media's fault. Maybe that is someone's fault but the government needs to take the responsibility to inform the people.

Before we ratify the protocol the people have to understand. I am not talking about the select group of 84 people who were invited to the meetings that went on through June. I am talking about the person on the fixed income. I am talking about the mom and dad with two kids. I am talking about the single mother. I am talking about the working poor who are having a hard time making a go of it. Those are the people who need to understand the implications of Kyoto. The government has not delivered that information. When we talk about consultation that is the first line.

The one big failure in Kyoto is that the government has left out the people. All I can do is just remind the government what happened with the Charlottetown accord when the people were left out. It was great. It was cooked up here in Ottawa and everyone said it would work. The bureaucrats said that they could do up the paperwork. The politicians agreed to it. They said that they could make it happen but that they would not answer many questions or give much information. Well, obviously we know what happened there. The Canadian people engaged. When they engaged they ordered 12 million copies of the Constitution.

What bureaucrat or politician would ever have believed that could or would happen, that the Canadian people would engage like that and get involved? Well they did and we know what happened to the Charlottetown accord.

I put forward the same argument for Kyoto. As people understand and as they see what a phoney, eurocentric, bureaucratic document it is, they will say no to Kyoto and yes to a plan, but a plan they have been part of developing and have bought into.

Industry will be on side because industry knows it is good for business to be green and to be environmentally friendly.

What about the provinces? I think the provinces have stated their position fairly clearly. The Prime Minister, probably right now as we speak, is meeting with the premier of B.C., and will be meeting tomorrow with Mr. Eves in Toronto. The only real purpose, it appears, for the Prime Minister to do this is to divide and conquer.

What I saw in Halifax from the ministers was anything but a divide and conquer success story. I saw all provinces, Quebec and Manitoba included, and the territories together saying, “Listen federal government, we want to work on a plan, here are the 12 proposals that we are putting forward and you had better listen to these”.

Of course the response in the House was, “No, I will not meet with the premiers. No, we will not agree to those 12 points”.

Therefore when the minister stands in the House and says that he has the cooperation, we now have two failures. The Canadian people have not been consulted and the provinces and territories do not feel that they have been part of developing the plan.

What about the third aspect of the consultation, and that is with industry. Industry provides the jobs in this country and that includes the small and medium sized businesses. Do they feel that they have been consulted? Ask the chambers of commerce. I ask members of the House to ask their chambers of commerce what they think will happen if they have a rise in their energy costs and if they have to live by restrictions that they were not part of developing. The members can tell me that it will not affect jobs and will not affect the income of a communities.

There is a very important word that we will be discussing over the next while and that is the one of consultation: consultation with Canadians first, consultation with the provinces and territories, and consultation with the people who provide the jobs. When we have those three on side, we have an agreement that will work and is destined to work.

As part of my introduction I want to talk about the ministers of government. I think it is rather interesting where their positions have come to and I would like to quote a few of them. I think these quotes are kind of interesting and will give Canadians an idea of just exactly where the ministers are on this whole agreement.

Let us remember that the Prime Minister has promised to consult fully with every province, to consult with all individual Canadians and to make sure it does not hurt any province or any person very much.

It is really nice, if one is the Prime Minister, to say that it will not hurt the economy or the people. I guess that is what he thinks Canadians want to hear, but is that really what will happen? Until we see the plan and until we know how it will be implemented, how can we possibly do that?

Let us examine a few quotes. This is a letter dated March 26 from the Prime Minister to Mr. Perrin Beatty, president and CEO of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters. The letter states:

I have stated that the Government would like to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, but we will only do so once we have a workable plan for meeting our target.

Is it not interesting that on September 2 the Prime Minister decided, probably surprising his own ministers and his bureaucrats, and said “we're ratifying it by the end of the year”.

Let me read what the Prime Minister said to the head of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters. He said, “I have stated that the government would like to ratify the Kyoto protocol--”. There is nothing wrong with that. However he goes on to say, “--but we will only do so once we have a workable plan for meeting our target”.

That is pretty important and that will be the first set of words I think that will condemn the Prime Minister to not doing what he said.

The Prime Minister, on March 26, again in the same letter, stated, “I assure you that there is no artificial deadline for a ratification decision”.

There is no artificial deadline and yet a few months later he has a deadline of the end of December 2002.

I am not a lawyer and yet I am putting forward evidence here, using the man's own words, and asking the House whether he is living up to what he said.

Again, the Prime Minister said in a letter “...the emission reductions that have been agreed to in the Kyoto Protocol will not be sufficient to stop climate change...”, so what does that mean? I interpret that as meaning it is probably not going to make much difference. The environment minister confirmed that in Calgary about a month ago when he said there will probably not be a single bit of environmental change in the next 100 years. It will take much longer than that. All of these things are going to happen to us with very little gain.

Let me go on with statements from the Prime Minister. On September 25, 2002, he said, in

The Toronto Star:

We will sign the protocol, we'll ratify it, and we will develop the plan. We will give the framework of the plan, but all the pieces of this plan will take 10 years to finalize.

One might say, well, that is great, he is going to take 10 more years and he has already had 10 years. We must remember that this was started in 1992. But there is one big problem. Article 3 of the protocol states that we will have to show substantial improvement in CO

2

emissions “by 2005”.

This is stated clearly in black and white. A country must show that it has substantially reduced its CO

2

emissions. Between 1999 and 2000 we increased our CO

2

emissions by 5%. In 2000 we were 20% over 1990 levels. Today we are 25% over 1990 levels. How is the Prime Minister going to substantially reduce our CO

2

emissions? As everybody says, emissions will be another 5% higher by the year 2005. Again I guess it is a matter of the fact that he will not be Prime Minister much longer so he will leave it to the guy he does not like much and let him deal with the problem. As we know, though, that still comes back to the average Canadian I am talking about. It comes back to the family of four, to the single mom or to people on fixed incomes. They are going to have pay the price for the Prime Minister to live up to that commitment, whoever that Prime Minister might be.

The Prime Minister even said in the House that in 30 years our children and grandchildren will be dying from the heat. There is not a scientist in the world who would agree with that. None of the people in the IPCC, in those models, say that in 30 years people are going to be dying from heat. We must remember that the Prime Minister himself said that in 100 years we probably will not notice much change, so how the heck are people going to be dying of heat in the next 30 years when in 100 years they will not notice much change?

Let us look at the environment minister. We talked earlier today on a point of order about the ad during the Grey Cup game yesterday. I hope you will not mind me using this example, Madam Speaker. Just before that government ad that we the taxpayers paid for to try to blackmail and calm the Canadian people, there was a Viagra ad. A guy jumps out of his house and, boy, he is feeling great. He feels wonderful. All the old guys on the street envy him. He bounces over the white picket fence, runs down the street, dunks the ball and does all that stuff. When I saw the Canadian government ad and all its propaganda, I expected to see the environment minister jump over the white picket fence and tell us that there will be floods and pestilence and disease and all that comes with not signing Kyoto. It would have fit. That is probably for the next issue of the ads paid for by Canadian taxpayers.

This environment minister talks about all of these good things. He put out a note to his cabinet colleagues saying that all of us should set an example and have small cars that are environmentally friendly and use transitional fuels. There is one problem with that. Only one person replied. That was himself. The opposition leader at that time, our House leader, applied for one but he never did get it. He is still waiting. So we have one car.

After votes in the House in the morning, how many of us have walked out there along the road and have seen ministers' cars turned off, saving fuel and not releasing CO

2

? I do not think so. What I have seen is that they are all running. We could not have a minister getting into a cold car. They run for hours and hours and that includes the Prime Minister's car out there. Again, it is typical Liberal propaganda: talk a lot, say they are doing a lot and then do absolutely nothing or the opposite. I would encourage people to start asking their MPs to start asking their cabinet ministers just exactly how committed they are to doing something about the environment.

I have listened to the environment minister many times. I am sure he is a very honourable person and that he really believes in what he does, but when I had that breakfast meeting in Victoria 10 days ago, with all those tables filled with people from the business community, doctors, dentists and other professionals, they said that they did not understand Kyoto. That was in the minister's riding. They do not understand it in the minister's riding, let alone in the rest of Canada, and of course they are getting no help from him.

What about the natural resources minister? He said that the government would not implement it until it knows it will not do any damage to our industry, that we will not have an investment freeze, and that it will all be fixed. I think the only fixing that got done was probably by the hon. member for LaSalle—Émard who fixed the minister pretty good, and it may well mean that he is not going to be in this place anymore.

What about the industry minister? The industry department had an interesting report last week. It said that the government is underestimating the costs of Kyoto by 30%. I cannot help but think of some of the other underestimates that have happened in this place. I was in the House when a minister said that we were going to have this Bill C-68 and it would cost only $87 million. He said they would have it all cleaned up and done right away. It would be smooth and easy with no problems. Within this next year that bill will have cost us $1.053 billion and has probably accomplished only about 10% of what it was set out to do.

The government traditionally underestimates things. I have been talking with the oil industry, for example, which says that the government is working with a figure of 3¢ per barrel. That will be the increased cost. If it is 3¢ a barrel, then the government is right and it really will not make much difference, but nobody I have asked in industry will even come close to 3¢ a barrel. They say that figure is out by hundreds of percentage points, so really how valid is this whole thing?

What about the health minister? As we are talking about cabinet ministers and leadership, she is pretty interesting too. In The Edmonton Journal of September 7 of this year, she said, “An awful lot of countries have ratified Kyoto without a plan and that to me is irresponsible and frightening.” I think she is right on. She obviously knows where it is at. It is pretty irresponsible and frightening to adopt this without having any kind of plan.

Of course, we have talked about the hon. member for LaSalle—Émard. He has an interesting position, which kind of goes like this: “I think Kyoto is pretty good, but, you know, Kyoto could be bad, but it's good, but if we ratify it, we might not, but if we do, we could, but if we don't, well, then, we won't and then it won't hurt anybody and it won't cost anything, and I think that's what we should do”. I think maybe he has to clarify his position a little bit.

I think he has quite a bit of room to manoeuvre, but if he wants to show real leadership this would certainly be the time to do it. He has said in the past that we must have a plan, we have to know how it will be implemented, we have to know what it will cost and we have to work with the provinces and Canadians. That is right on. I just quoted what he really says. I do not think anybody understands. He has said that “Canadians are entitled to know” exactly what the government's plans are and “I don't think you can spend the next number of years working that plan out”. That is a quote from the member for LaSalle—Émard.

He is right. We must have a plan. We have to know how it will be implemented. That is what this whole thing is all about.

I do want to tell the House about the presentation which I have been making at the town halls across the country. Hopefully you will be in the chair tomorrow morning, Madam Speaker, as I do not want to start now because I will not have time to finish. Certainly in my notice to the member across I will let him know that I will be doing that presentation first thing tomorrow just so he can be here bright and early and get a seat.

Let us talk about the polls. Polls are pretty interesting things. Someone said a long time ago in the House that “polls are for dogs”. Other people have said that the polls that are good we believe in and the polls that are bad we do not, but let us talk a little bit about these polls and the polling that is being done.

We must remember that the government has now spent $1.7 billion on Kyoto. What we have to show for that is a bunch of advertising, but most important, the weekly polling that the government does to see where Kyoto is at to decide how fast it will move.

Seeing that the government likes polls so much, I decided that I would do a poll as well, in my own riding. Let me tell the House about this poll. I heard the minister say that we have to represent our people first and I believe in that more than anyone else. Let us talk about my poll. We surveyed 1,230 people in my riding and asked, is climate change a problem? Forty-seven per cent said yes, climate change is a problem. Twenty-eight per cent said no, it is not a problem, and 24% did not understand Kyoto well enough to know whether it was a problem or not.

Next we asked, will Kyoto harm our economy? Eighty-one per cent said yes, it will. Eight per cent said no, it would not, and 10% were not sure. Next was, is Kyoto the right way to deal with climate change? Thirteen per cent thought it was. Seventy-two per cent said no, it was not, and 13% did not know enough about it to respond to that question. As well, the comments are interesting. Of those 1,200 people, over 1,000 wrote comments. I have some of the comments here, very few in favour of Kyoto. That is exactly what I am finding when I go out on the road. That is what I found in Hamilton yesterday. I was supposed to be in Toronto tonight, but obviously I need to be here to help the members understand Kyoto better.

Kyoto Protocol November 25th, 2002

Mr. Speaker, the point I am making is that this is like the public consultations which have gone on where there is a set list of people to attend and they are given a canned presentation about the pros of Kyoto. No one from the other side is invited. The media and the public are not allowed to attend. That is the government's public consultation.

The minister went through all this in June at 14 different meetings before he went on the sky is falling tour of the summer where he was Chicken Little running across the country trying to scare people.

It stands to reason that he would not stand in the House and answer any questions of members who might want to talk about the fluffy speech he just gave.

He talks about the Liberals way, how it is great and how wonderful they feel. I have come to learn that what the Liberals really are. They are people who take the responsibility of the world on their shoulders, say that it is terrible, come up with an agreement, then talk a lot and do absolutely nothing. That is exactly what we have seen here.

The environment auditor general commented about the Liberal way as well. The government is not investing enough of its human or financial resources, its legislative or regulatory and economic powers or its political leadership to fulfill its sustainable development commitments. The result is a growing environmental health and financial burden that our children will have to beat. That is an evaluation of the government.

I am very pleased to have the opportunity to speak here today, and in the future, and talk about the importance of Kyoto. I want to start off by setting the stage as to why I am so involved with this issue. I believe it is an issue that will affect more Canadians than probably anything we have done in the House, certainly in the going on 10 years that I have been here.

To provide some credibility on the environmental issue, I should say a little about myself. That will set the stage as to where I will go in my speech.

As a young person, being raised in Saskatchewan, I was a member of the Saskatchewan Natural History Society and was on the editorial board of the Blue Jay , its environmental magazine. I was involved with some notable biologists of the time banding birds. I was the young guy they would have crawl up the trees and crawl around on the cliffs to band eagles and various types of birds. I was the guy who used to take people on tours of the sharp-tailed grouse dancing grounds, through their mating procedure. I was involved with Christmas bird counts and many books and reviewed articles related to biology later on in my career. I was avid environmentalist and still believe today that I have an environmental conscience.

Our party has an environmental conscience and we care about this subject very deeply, unlike the shallow nature of what we just heard with a bunch of fluffy talk and absolutely no commitment.

In university I went on to major in biology with a minor in history. I worked for the Canadian Wildlife Service through the summers. I was involved with a particular project on sandhill cranes and followed their migration. I did a paper on that and a lot of research into behavioural patterns and so on.

I worked from Big Grass Marsh in Manitoba on through Saskatchewan and Alberta and was involved in habitat protection, consulting farmers and so on. Ultimately, after my biology degree, I ended up going back to university and doing a project on sandhill cranes.

Finally, deciding that bureaucracy was not for me, I decided to teach biology. From that I had a fascinating career. I was involved in teaching young people, involving them in a love of nature and understanding of the balances that existed in nature. I was also involved in looking at the impacts that humans had through dams and various types of projects.

At that time, I was also very active on the parks board for a number of years. I cannot help but take some pride in the trail system and the protection of natural areas in my city of Red Deer.

I remember as well two very notable people in my life: a lady named Ethel Taylor who was the perpetual NDP candidate in our constituency but was a councillor and a very active environmentalist; and Margaret Parsons, a member of a well known family and the wife of a doctor. Among those two councillors and myself we managed to protect an awful lot of the environmental areas around the central Alberta area, and I take a great deal of pride in that. As the city has grown, it too has taken pride in that and that has become a major selling point for our community.

As well, I was involved actively in the eastern slopes. We have some of the most beautiful areas possible. Straight west of Red Deer is one of the most beautiful parts of this country. I often brag that I represent the most beautiful constituency in Canada, from the city of Red Deer through to the B.C. border.

With that in mind, I think this gives me some credibility and background over a number of years to say that I have shown a real care for the environment. I also have studied this accord for the last year and a half as the senior environment critic. I have never been so convinced of anything in my whole life that this is the wrong way to go in dealing with climate change and pollution. Over the course of the next few days, I hope to tell the House exactly what we should do, instead of what the Kyoto accord is all about. That is what I will attempt to do.

First, there is not a Canadian out there who does not care about the air, the water, the soil, the food they eat and the safety of that food. The polls say that people care. I am really surprised sometimes when I see that only 90% of people care. I really cannot imagine what the other 10% are thinking if they do not care about their environment. When we develop a policy, we need to be sure that we consult with Canadians, and that is one of our biggest problems.

However let us start with the clear policy. Anything I have heard over the last year and a half from the government has been anything but clear on where it is going with Kyoto, what its objectives are, what its targets are and what it wants to achieve.

Let us look at the Liberal record on some of these issues. We can start with the pollution of the air. Some members are clapping. We could go on for several days talking about this record, but let us just use a couple of examples.

Let us talk about the 45 smog days in downtown Toronto. Let us see what the government has done to help with that. Kyoto is not about those smog days in Toronto. It is not about particulate matter. It is not about all those other things that we call smog. The government conveniently has meshed those two together, and I believe the people in Toronto think that Kyoto is a solution to those smog days.

Let us move on to the Fraser Valley. It is the second most polluted area in Canada. This area now has health problems that are higher by hundreds of percentages than anywhere else in Canada. This includes asthma and all kinds of other things. Let us examine what the federal government has done in that area. The state of Washington has approved a power plant called Sumas 2. There are 12 other plants in various stages of being approved.

These power plants would be built right on the border between Washington State and British Columbia. They would draw their water from the aquifers in Canada. They would put their sewage into the Sumas River which goes into Canada. The prevailing winds would blow the pollution into Canada and of course we would sell them the gas but in exchange for that they would put the power lines down Main Street of Abbotsford because they do not allow high tensile power lines over populated areas in Washington State, but it is fine to put them in Canada.

Let us examine what is happening here. This is the Liberal government that did not get involved in the Washington State hearings. I was allowed to be an intervenor on behalf of the Canadian people and testify. The minister said that he knew the governor well and that he would write him a letter.

I do not know whether the letter was sent or not but he obviously did not have very much influence on Governor Locke because the governor approved this thing. Let us examine what we have here. We have a 660 megawatt power plant being built. We would get the air pollution into the second worst air shed in Canada. We would get the sewage, lose water from our aquifers, and get the high tensile power lines coming down Main Street, Abbotsford, then out to the coast and down to California.

What would Washington State get? It would get the jobs, the profit, and would not have the pollution and all of the problems. What would California get. It would get the energy because it does not allow any kind of power plants like that in its jurisdiction because it is too harmful to health.

This is the Liberal government's involvement. I applied to the National Energy Board to be an intervenor at those hearings on behalf of the Canadian people as the senior environment critic for Canada. What happened? I was turned down. Why was I turned down by the NEB? I was turned down because I do not live in British Columbia and the area. It let the Alberta government be an intervenor because the company said it was okay, but it said the company objected to me being an intervenor because I was opposed to the project.

That is how the government caves in. This is the feel good, be good and happy Liberal type of thing. It is phony as a three dollar bill because there is the proof of it. There will be 11 other projects. What will the government do about the air pollution in the Fraser Valley? It will be doing nothing about it. It talks about having clean air and that it cares about the health of children. There are hundreds of thousands of people there who will be affected and the government is doing absolutely nothing.

It says it cares about the air. I can give examples of where it has failed. We could ask the member from the Windsor area about southern Ontario. He has showed me many medical reports about the damage done to the health of the people of that area and how the government has done little or nothing to care about the most polluted area in southern Ontario.

When we are talking about air pollution we could talk about the biogas that is being used throughout the world. I had the privilege of being in Berlin and examining its biogas project. There are six big vessels for the sewage from Berlin. It is fermented in the vessels. The vessels capture the methane gas which is then used as fuel for incinerating garbage. The water from the sewage is heated and sold in pipes throughout the entire downtown Berlin area. It is run by a private company and it makes a profit.

I was amazed by the project and asked how long the authorities had been doing it. The answer was 40 years or 50 years. If the government cared about fixing the air problems we would see it taking some action on biogas.

It is interesting that the little town of Olds, just outside of my constituency, is looking at a digester. I was told yesterday in Hamilton that there is a digester already in operation in Ontario and I was invited to see it in Thunder Bay. These things are happening but not because of the Liberal government. They are happening because of the common sense of people who realize they must do something about their air because the government does not give a damn about that air.

What about water? Let us look at raw sewage. Is it not interesting that the minister lives in Victoria and represents Victoria, and that city dumps its sewage into the ocean? Is it not interesting that St. John's and Halifax do the same? Is it not interesting that about every other year, the federal government announces that it will do something about it but nothing ever happens? There is no leadership. There is no commitment. The government does not care about the water.

Regarding the whole issue of approval of landfills by the provinces and municipalities, where is the federal government in the research and in the provision of some guidance in this whole process? It is nowhere. Members across the way say it is at the provincial or municipal level. That is what they always do. They show no leadership, no guidance or work with anybody. They go bullying off on their own like they are doing with Kyoto. Instead of landfills we should be looking at incinerators, recycling, composting, and there are lots of examples across the country. These members are not environmentalists; they are phonies when it comes to the environment. They like to talk a lot but not do anything.

What about our groundwater? Our groundwater has not been mapped. We do not know whether our water tables are in a positive or negative charge. We have no idea. The government is not committed to finding out about groundwater. Sumas is a perfect example. We are letting a U.S. corporation take the groundwater and use it to pollute our environment. What kind of sense does that make?

I could take the rest of today talking about the government failures: the baby steps in the Great Lakes or the Sydney Tar Ponds, the uranium mines in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and the first nations water quality. All of these would be examples of Liberal talk but no action. When they take on an environmental issue it is pretty suspect as to whether much will actually happen. There is a lot of talk, a lot of feel good and be happy, but not a heck of a lot of commitment or action. Many people would agree that Kyoto is somewhat along those same lines.

Regarding Kyoto, most people remember what happened in the House, that questions were asked prior to December 1997. Members in the House asked the Liberals what their plan and strategy were, what was Kyoto, and what was the agreement all about? The Liberals were asked what guarantee we had that we would be able to live up to this plan?

There was a conference in Regina with the provinces. The provinces were told one week prior to Kyoto that the Liberals would not sign anything that would damage the provinces or affect them. This was just one of those climate change things that came out of the Rio conference of 1992. It was not really that important, it would not have that much of an effect. In the course of the next few days the provinces would get all of the details on Kyoto and would examine it step by step; examine the PowerPoint presentation of the government, and would examine it line by line to see how effective it would be in dealing with these environmental issues.

The government talks a lot about guarantees and states that no one would be hurt. Where will it get the money to do all of these things?

Most important of all is the fact that the Australians went to Kyoto with a plan. They indicated in their plan that Australia was a big country. It did not have a very good transportation infrastructure. It had a growing population and quite a bit of immigration so it could not do better than 8% above the 1990 levels.

Does Canada not have a growing population? Do we not have a lot of immigration? Are we not a big country? Are we not in the same category as Australia? As a matter of fact, Canada is bigger. We do not have the infrastructure. I cannot get a train to go to the next city if I want to. We have the second coldest climate in the world. What did our negotiators not understand about that? How did they think we could get to minus 6% from 1990 levels? I will tell the House how it happened.

The Prime Minister was set on beating the Americans. The Prime Minister does not like Americans much. He said we should go one better than them. Guess what happened? The Americans went minus 5% and Canada said minus 6%. That is how we got to minus 6%. Since then the U.S. and Australia have both said they could not achieve those targets because they would damage their economy too much. They would not hit those targets so therefore they would not ratify Kyoto. Here we are, the Boy Scouts, agreeing to minus 6% below 1990 levels.

Most people would agree that with these targets no one has really developed a plan. What kind of plan would we need to achieve these targets? How much would it cost? Where would the money come from? Nobody has dealt with those issues, and certainly this plan has not done that.

Let me give the House an idea of where I have been asking questions. I asked questions in Vancouver, Alberta and Saskatchewan. I did townhall meetings in those cities. I asked questions in Halifax and throughout Ontario. Yesterday I was in Hamilton where I asked individuals what Kyoto was? It was amazing to see a standing room only crowd in that auditorium. More interesting than anything was a breakfast meeting in Victoria 10 days ago which was once again sold out. I will tell members what those people told me.

It was just amazing what those people asked. There are four things that people ask right across the country, in town hall after town hall, in talk show after talk show. They ask what is Kyoto? How does Kyoto affect me? Will it help the environment? Is there some other way? Once they have the first three answers, they ask that question. They ask those four questions and we need to give them some answers. The government has not made much of an attempt to do that.

Yesterday I was pretty shocked that the audience really did not know what Kyoto was about. Some knew it was a city in Japan. Some knew it was some kind of environmental agreement. Most of them thought that if we ratified Kyoto we would not have a pollution problem any more, that it would solve little Johnny's asthma. We care about little Johnny's asthma, we care about clean water and we care about the health of Canadians. Most people thought that was Kyoto.

As we get into looking at Kyoto page by page, line by line, we will find out what Kyoto really is about. It is not about health and little Johnny's asthma; it is in fact about climate change, about global warming and about carbon dioxide. A lot of people thought carbon dioxide was what came out of the exhaust of a car. They were mixing it up with carbon monoxide, but most people are not scientists.

One fellow who worked at the Ford Windstar plant down the road from Hamilton jumped up and said, “I work there. This is going to affect my job. I never knew that. I did not think it would affect me. I thought it was some international agreement that would fix little Johnny's asthma, that would not cost me anything and that certainly would not threaten my job”. The automobiles that he builds at work are not environmentally friendly. Obviously the minister would say that they have to make something half that size, that driving something big like that obviously will not allow them to achieve their Kyoto targets.

When it comes to the question of what is Kyoto, we will examine what people think. That is what I have found across the country.

As far as the question of how it affects people, most people feel it does not affect them at all. It is not going to raise their energy costs. It is not going to raise the cost of electricity. It is not going to have any effect on them at all, except to fix the health problems. Obviously once they start examining that issue, that changes pretty dramatically as well.

Does it help the environment? If we were to deal with pollution, yes we could help the environment a lot. I started off in my introduction showing the lack of commitment for real environmental improvement. There are many countries that have been successful in fixing the environment. Whether we talk about Denmark, Germany, Japan or the U.S., there are lots of countries that are doing a lot for the environment. We have a lot of entrepreneurs who could do a lot more with a bit of government encouragement. When we look into whether it is really going to change the environment or change how things are, we will find the answer is not very positive.

Is there a better way? Darn right there is a better way. There is a made in Canada way and I want to explore that in depth. That made in Canada way is not just the Alberta plan. The made in Canada way is a much broader approach. I would need days and days to go through some of that information.

Why is there so much confusion around the whole Kyoto issue? Why are the polls dropping in terms of support? Why are 71% of Canadians saying they think we should have the cooperation of the provinces and they should know more about it? When we ask an audience, they all up their hands and say they want to know more about the Kyoto accord. Why has there been so much confusion?

First, the government and a number of environmental groups have been in bed together, as the minister said, for a lot of years. The minister and the Liberal government have made a habit of trucking them around the world to various conferences. The minister makes sure that they have good tax deductions so that any donations are tax deductible. He has even given the Federation of Canadian Municipalities $250 million for green projects. He does a lot of things to get people onside. That information is being put out by these groups because they owe something to the minister.

There has been a real skilful job of mixing health and Kyoto, of mixing pollution and Kyoto. It has been very well done. Most people really do believe that signing Kyoto will have major health results. Of course, if we look at Kyoto, Kyoto by itself is not about that. Kyoto is about CO

2

, climate change and global warming. That is what it is there for.

We should deal with both of these issues. I want to make that extremely clear. The minister implied that we do not want to deal with this issue. He is totally, absolutely 100% wrong. We want to deal with these two issues, but let us deal with the issues and let us be honest with Canadians and with the provinces.

The provinces made it fairly clear in Halifax. They set out their 12 requirements and expected the federal government at least to respond to them. They wanted a first ministers meeting. Is it too much to ask to have a first ministers meeting, to sit down with the ministers and discuss those 12 points? I do not think so, because all of the provinces and territories agreed.

The other thing we are looking at is why there is so much confusion. How bad the doomsday scenario is that the minister goes with depends on where he is in the country. I cannot help but remember when he said in Calgary at the university that even if we implemented Kyoto it probably would not make much difference in the next 100 years.

That was in Calgary, but certainly here it is quite a different story. His doomsday scenario consists of floods, ice storms, droughts, pestilence, infection and people dying of heat. He implies, depending on where he is in the country, that ratifying Kyoto would end all of that. All of sudden we would not have any more floods, ice storms, droughts, pestilence and so on.

We can examine the scientific evidence about droughts in the Prairies. It consists of a number of university studies of pond areas and core samples taken from deep into the earth. They examined the climate that had gone on for the last couple of thousand years and found that there have been many periods of drought in western Canada. In fact once in the 17th century there was a drought that lasted 70 years. In the last few centuries, the droughts have been getting shorter and shorter. If we get two or three years of drought, that becomes more the law than the other way.

When the minister implies that we will have no more droughts, I am not exactly sure how he will arrange that simply by ratification of Kyoto. I do not know who he has connections with that he will pull that off, but obviously he has.

As far as pestilence is concerned, West Nile virus and various types of malaria were common in past history. They could flare up at any time. With increased transportation and people moving from all parts of the world, it is only natural that is going to happen. To say that it is all related to signing or not signing Kyoto is totally misleading the Canadian public.

The importance of this debate is it gives us an opportunity to zero in on what the accord is all about and on many of the mistruths and wrong statements that have been made by the government, by its ministers and by the Prime Minister.

As I mentioned, I am quite surprised because I have been able to listen to the minister in different centres. It is interesting how the message differs wherever one happens to be. I guess that is politics but when we are dealing with something as important as little Johnny's asthma and climate change, it would seem to me that one would want to have the same message, believe it and go out and give that to Canadians.

Let us talk about climate change. What is it? We all know that the temperature has increased in the last 100 years. We know that the amount of CO

2

has increased in the last 100 years. We also know that there have been eight ice ages, that there have been eight interglacial ice periods. I am sure all members would agree that we cannot really predict the weather for tomorrow, let alone for 100 or 1,000 years from now. I cannot believe that the minister really believes that we are going to be able to do that.

I am going through some definitions here so that in the course of the next few days we will be able to discuss and use these definitions.

What are greenhouse gases? Obviously, 97% of greenhouse gases is made up of water and water vapour in the form of clouds, water and so on. We have to remember that the other 3% is made up of a major gas, CO

2

, methane, ozone, and a number of other things.

The important thing is that greenhouse gases are necessary for our very survival. The earth is kept warm by greenhouse gases. It would be 37°C cooler if we did not have them and we would not have life on earth without those greenhouse gases. There is a lot of science out there that might disagree with those who say that carbon dioxide is the evil one.

We also need to understand and know what the IPCC is. The minister made reference to it and talked about it as if it was something pretty important to him. I will go through a few chapters of a book to explain it exactly. I know the member on the other side looks forward to it and will be sure to be here tomorrow so he can understand better what the IPCC models are. It is very important and I know he will enjoy understanding the modelling.

The top 200 scientists have finally zeroed in on 40 models. These models are pretty interesting. The member probably will not sleep tonight waiting to find out about them but I am going to make him wait until tomorrow. They put different factors into the modelling and came out with totally different results. Some of those results are 5°C higher in the next 100 years; some of them are colder than that.

Kyoto Protocol November 25th, 2002

Mr. Speaker, that says it all in terms of consultation with the Canadian public and questions that might need to be asked of the minister. That is like the public meetings that he has where there is a set list--