Mr. Speaker, it is certainly my pleasure to speak to Bill C-52, the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty.
Certainly I agree with many of the sentiments expressed by the minister, and I think most Canadians would also agree. As the minister pointed out, we are looking at banning nuclear testing in this country and most Canadians would agree with that.
Our party agrees there should be serious penalties for anyone who considers this sort of action, and obviously this is part of the bill.
We agree that Canadian companies should report tests of 300 tonnes of TNT or its equivalent, as these could be mistakenly looked on as nuclear testing. Our party agrees and supports the overall principle of the bill.
I believe that is what Canadians want. That is what our party stands for. I believe we are going in the right direction.
However, I must address some of the issues I believe should be talked about when we look at the whole nuclear question. It is important that this be brought to the House and that we have the opportunity to debate such an important issue. I look back on some of the other issues that should have been brought to the House and that should have been debated. Most obviously, the international court comes to mind. We met with that group. We found out that it had a Canadian position. It was going to head off this summer to Rome to negotiate on behalf of all Canadians and sign something that Canadians had not looked at, had not talked about or for the most part had no input into. We met with those people five days before they left for Rome. They could not tell any of us what their position was. That is an example of where that should have been brought to the House. Canadians should have had a chance to comment on it.
The Kyoto agreement is another one. It is going to affect every Canadian. Yet it was not brought to the House. It was not debated. The facts were not put out. Canadians did not have the necessary input. Most of the provinces, now that they are getting some of the details, do not agree with it.
We could talk about UN conferences. We could talk about the conference in Beijing. It talked about the issues of women which most Canadians and this House did not have input into. We could talk about Cairo and population. The position put by Canada is probably contrary to a great many positions that Canadians would hold. We can go on and on.
At least we have a chance in the House to talk about this nuclear treaty. That goes a long way in why we might support the government's position on this because we have a chance to express our point of view and our concerns.
When we look at this we can find some of the good points which the minister pointed out. We can talk about the advanced technology which now allows us to detect nuclear testing around the globe. It is interesting, however, that the CIA was severely reprimanded for not advising the U.S. Congress about the potential test in India. It is interesting that somehow that fell through the cracks. Heads rolled because of it. It does make us a little uncertain when this treaty says we can detect nuclear testing around the world and yet we have an example this past year where something went wrong.
We were told about the monitoring systems. I had the opportunity to look at some of those monitoring systems. We have satellites in place. We have nuclear waste being weighed and measured. We have detectors that will detect if a slight bit of waste product has been taken out of the container. A satellite will immediately alert us to that.
This trust in technology is good. I still wonder if it is totally foolproof. We have to ask that question. We have to ask our technical people to be sure that these are failsafe systems and that nothing can go wrong.
The American way at looking at things for the most part has been to take the James Bonds and the Maxwell Smarts out of the equation and go strictly to satellites and technology. I am concerned that we may be putting too much trust in that technology.
Canadian industries are the very much the leaders in remote sensing techniques. We have a great deal of industry that will benefit from treaties like this as we sell our technology around the world. We can certainly benefit from a business standpoint.
It is important that this government make it very clear that we should be part of any international on site inspections. We are technically able to do that. We have the equipment, we have the know how. It is important that we be part of that examination. I can talk about why Canada should do that, being equipped to do that better than most countries. I will save that for another time.
We have reservations about this test ban treaty and I think it is important for the record that we help the government to look at what these reservations might be and hopefully as it implements this it will take these recommendations into consideration.
First there is the cost. The bureaucracy that is going to be created by this government in order to impose this test ban treaty is quite extensive. If we look at the added bureaucracy we will find that not only do we have a disarmament ambassador but we have the pyramid of infrastructure and of bureaucracy that goes with that.
Canada has created a national authority for the CTBT implementation. In other countries, for instance Britain, they have put it under the minister of defence and have said handle that under the existing bureaucracy. We have set up a whole new bureaucracy, a whole new building of bureaucrats examining the implementation of this treaty.
We have been here long enough now to see what happens as these pyramid builders, these bureaucracy builders, take over. Certainly we would advise the government when it says it is going to spend $8.5 million this year on this initial implementation committee, do not let that grow any bigger, do not let that thing balloon out to become this huge bureaucratic nightmare we have in this place.
I guess a bigger concern we have is that while we agree with the expressions of the minister and we agree with what he had to say, we have this terrible feeling that the minister is possibly leading us into a path of folly, that this minister is in this idealistic world, one which many of us passed through in the 1960s. We got over it and we now know about the realities of the 1990s and the realities of the 21st century.
We have a minister who is a political dreamer, who believes that because you talk about it and you say it, it will be so. I want to expand considerably on what the reality is out there in the real world when it comes to nuclear energy and nuclear weapons and what the real world is.
We are now in 1998 entering the 21st century and I believe it is vital that we warn Canadians as the minister said about some of the difficulties which we face. I have to look at some of the quotes the minister has.
In the question and answer section on this which we were provided with, there is a quote which I think fits the minister very well is: “Canada's long term goal is to ensure that the treaty enters into force, continues to be an effective non-proliferation instrument and contributes to the ultimate elimination of all nuclear weapons”.
That is motherhood. We would all like to not have any nuclear weapons. The problem is that is so far from reality that we wonder where the reality in the minister's mind really is.
I could list other quotes where he says that the United Nations is where everything happens and as long as we are represented in the United Nations we can trust that everything will be fine and we will not have to worry about these nuclear problems.
I am afraid again that is not a world I could be that comfortable with, trusting the United Nations talk shop to solve all the problems of the world today. I do not have that level of confidence and I think many countries would follow in that line as well. Let us talk about the reality that I believe the minister has missed when he talks the way he just did in this House.
There are 36 countries that have the capability to develop nuclear weapons. That includes Canada. We have the START II agreement between Russia and the U.S. to get rid of nuclear weapons which is not being enforced but which was supposed to be enforced a good two years ago.
START III is totally stalled and is not going anywhere.
If we examine the Russian situation, it is pretty easy to understand what is happening. The Russians are in economic free fall. They have lost their conventional means of defence. Russia is not a world player by any sense of the imagination, except that they have nuclear weapons. The only thing that makes Russia a world player and a G-8 member is the fact that they have a huge nuclear arsenal.
How are we going to convince a nationalist Russian politician, or any Russian politician, that Russia should not be a world player, that they should get rid of their nuclear weapons just because it would be very nice if they did that? It is not realistic to think that could happen in the foreseeable future. Would we like it to happen? There is no question. Everybody would like it to happen, but it is not reality.
We have to worry about the countries that are not going to sign this treaty. It is great that Canada signed it on September 24, 1996, but we are not a threat to the world. The fact that we signed it is not what is significant. The significant factor is the fact that the other guys, who I want to talk about, did not sign it.
Let us consider the example of India and Pakistan. The minister referred to India and Pakistan a number of times. India has close to a billion people. It is a huge country. India has wanted to be a superpower for a long time. India feels it should be a world player because of its numbers and its growing economy. India is jealous that China is taking the focus position of the west. India feels unhappy that there are only five permanent members of the UN security council. India wants to be one of those members. They have clearly said that.
India is saying that Russia is on the inside and it is asking why Russia is on the inside. Russia is on the inside because it has nuclear weapons. China is on the inside because it has nuclear weapons. So India says that it will be on the inside too if it has nuclear weapons.
That is flawed thinking. The minister said that and I agree with him, but that is the reality of India's thinking. We were there in July and August and we got that message from the people at the top of the Government of India, from the foreign affairs committee and from the foreign affairs minister. They clearly stated that.
India backed Russia during the cold war, which was sort of getting on the wrong horse, but that is history. India has the fourth largest military in the world, with one and three-quarter million troops trained, armed and ready to go to war. They have a huge population and poverty problem. It is a country of contrasts and diversity. They have a new government with the BJP, a coalition of 19 parties. They are raising their popularity through nationalism. Having nuclear weapons is popular because that makes them more powerful and they will certainly get attention.
It is interesting that intelligence has said that India would be able to produce or have between 25 and 65 nuclear weapons. However, we are being told today that India possesses 455 nuclear weapons. It is a real problem if we think India has 25 and they have 455. That is a huge problem and a huge threat to mankind, as the minister said.
Let us go on to Pakistan, a country of 120 million people. They have 600,000 troops. Fifty-two per cent of their budget is spent on military. Twenty-seven per cent is spent on debt servicing. That leaves 21% for everything else. That is a huge economic problem. Pakistanis have their backs against the wall.
During the cold war they backed the west. They helped the west in Afghanistan to defeat the Russians. They helped the west in counterbalancing in terms of Iran and many other issues. Pakistan today feels marginalized and ignored, but they have nuclear weapons.
Let us look at the nuclear issue to see its significance. India tested five nuclear weapons in the spring of this year. The Indian politicians made statements “We are about to end the existence of Pakistan. We will attack them in Kashmir and take Kashmir back and then we will disrupt and destroy the Pakistani nation”.
That is a pretty serious charge. Obviously Pakistani politicians were listening to that pretty carefully. They have been in three wars since 1949. The most recent was in 1971 when Bangladesh was taken away from them by an Indian victory. It was then, of course, set up as a separate state.
Imagine the emotion on the day when Mrs. Bhutto took the bangles off her arm and threw them at the prime minister, saying “You are weak. You are as weak as you could be. You must counter what India has done”.
The Pakistan government sent envoys to all countries. They sent all of their members of parliament off to visit countries to find out what the other countries thought the week after the Indian tests. They went to the G-8 and said “What are you going to do to guarantee us our security? We think, and here are the reasons, that India is about to attack us”.
Of course the west offered very little. The G-8 came out with a weak-kneed, wishy-washy statement. So the Pakistanis said “We must test our nuclear weapons because that puts us on an equal footing”. This is how this sort of thing happens. Is it right? No, it is wrong. But that is how these kinds of situations arise.
Today we have the issue of Kashmir, an area 100 miles by 150 miles. There are 600,000 Indian troops there. It has been reported that 50,000 people have been killed. Shellings are occurring every day. There are some peacekeepers, but they are not allowed to patrol most of the areas. It is a hot spot. It is a real hot spot.
We talked to members of the foreign affairs committee in Islamabad. We looked at the issue, just as we had done in India, and we asked the same questions. The chairman of the foreign affairs committee said very clearly “We are like a cornered animal. But we have the political will. We have the people behind us. We have religion behind us. And we have nuclear weapons. We will use them and in 90 seconds 80 million people will be dead”. In 90 seconds 80 million people will be dead. That is what we are talking about. That is the reality.
While we are signing a treaty and talking about a piece of paper, the reality is that there is a crisis. What should we do? In this case Canada is perfectly positioned to do something. Remember, we do not have baggage. We have a reputation. We are members of the G-7. We are friends with Japan, China, India, Pakistan, France, Britain and Germany. We are friends with all of the countries involved and we can negotiate.
Instead of counting on this old-time politics of signing things, we should be there. We should be at that hot spot and we should be saying “Look guys, here are 10 issues”, 20 issues, however many issues you want to put on the table, “and we are going to talk about these issues”. Of course, at some point it would be hoped that Kashmir could be one of them.
Canada is positioned to do that. Russia was involved with India, so it is out. The U.S. was involved with Pakistan, so it is out. China is too busy economically, so it is out. Besides, China would not be accepted by Japan. Japan is interested, but it has an economic crisis. The U.S. is busy. Monica is keeping them busy. No one is as perfectly positioned as Canada to do something. This government should not just talk about it and condemn it and impose sanctions. That is not the way to do it.
The foreign affairs minister's office called me the day before we were leaving for India and Pakistan and said “Don't go. We are not allowing our ministers to talk about Pakistan and India. We are not allowing them to meet with Pakistan and India and you are sending the wrong message by going there”.
We were sending the right message by going there. We are the diplomats who could do something. We could do something about this issue. Instead of just standing around talking, we could be there to solve the problem. That is action. This government should be setting an example by doing that.
Canada has a role. We have a moral role that we could play in this situation. We could talk about power. Pakistan has all kinds of hydro power that could easily be traded with India. India needs it.
There are natural transportation routes. There are relatives on both sides of the border who want to meet with each other. There are 100 million people who could trade with each other. There are all kinds of things that would cause India and Pakistan to solve their problems if somebody were just there to do it.
Instead of slapping on sanctions, screaming and shouting and condemning them, let us help them. Let us help both sides to solve this issue.
I will not take time to go into as much detail on some of the others, but I will refer to them. Let us talk about Iraq.
Iraq had UN inspections, but again it is challenging the world. It is challenging the world that is so involved with all these other issues that it is determined that nuclear, biological and chemical weaponry will be developed in that country.
Who suffers? The people of Iraq. If we really care about the 21 million people of Iraq, then we should be doing something to solve this problem, and not just with a slap on the wrist. That is not the kind of action that works any more. It might have worked in the days of the cold war, but it sure does not work today.
North Korea constantly threatens that it will again start its nuclear program. It has acute famine. The only thing it has going for it is the nationalistic concept which the minister spoke about of this nuclear proliferation and development that makes it more powerful. That creates serious instability in the world.
Sudan is a country of 31 million. Well over two million of them are starving to death. It was 15 years at war, destroying crops and destabilizing its neighbours. There are all kinds of problems for the Canadian businesses which are trying to do business there. I point these things out because this is the reality of where it is really at.
Today we have 100,000 troops on the Iranian-Afghanistan border. We have the Shiite muslims who make up 89% of Iran faced off against the Taliban, the Sunni muslims who make up 84% of Afghanistan. They are within days or weeks of a major outbreak, a major conflict, occurring in that region.
There are all kinds of reasons Iran can say that it can develop whatever arsenal it takes to quell these sorts of problems. Obviously there is drug money involved. Huge amounts of drugs are being brought from Afghanistan into Pakistan. All kinds of instability is being created in that region.
Signing that piece of paper does not deal with Iran, with Afghanistan, with Iraq or with North Korea. We just do not deal with them by signing this piece of paper.
We could talk about Israel and Palestine. We could talk about Taiwan and China. We could talk about Turkey and Syria. Turkey's troops today are massing on the Syrian border. There are all kinds of such areas.
Another interesting piece of information is the improvement of missiles by various countries. The bragging rights are as follows: Saudi Arabia can now reach a range of 2,800 kilometres; Israel, 1,500 kilometres; Iran, 1,300 kilometres; Libya, 550 kilometres; and so the list goes on of bragging rights about what they can do to each other.
The real world that we are not talking about in the House is threatened by those kinds of states. That is where it is at. It is not signing a UN document and hoping all the good guys will not proliferate nuclear weapons. That is not where it is at. Where it is at is: What will all these guys do who could care less about this sort of treaty?
To hold out the treaty and say it is the answer, the be all and end all as we heard the minister say, is leading Canadians down the wrong path. Canadians should not feel pious and great because we are signing a nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
It would be wonderful, in the wonderful world of 1960 of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, if that would end everything. The white picket fence, the little dog and the wife in her apron are 30 years or so out of date. It is just not the real world. The real world is not all that friendly and we had better realize that.
We should also realize what the Canadian role is. Our role is a leadership role internationally. Over 80% of Canadians say that is what they want Canada to do. We will not be a superpower. We will not use weapons but we can use the weapon of diplomacy. That could be our strongest ace in the hole and could be the thing that could lead us into the position of diplomatic superpower in the world.
To sit on our laurels and think UN treaties and UN arrangements are all we need is totally wrong. The soft diplomacy that we have been following is not getting us very far and we are falling behind. Our position in the world is definitely declining, and I believe we as Canadians should turn that around.
To summarize, we certainly have a problem with all that bureaucracy. We have a problem with the foreign affairs position and a minister who is living in the past. I know this is not the time to ask a question, but we heard we were one of the first to sign and to move forward in this regard. I cannot help but ask a question. We signed on September 24, 1996. Why has taken it so confounded long to come through in legislation to the House? How is it possible to take two years to do something that will be supported by everyone in Canada and by all parties in the House? How can it be so slow? I guess we get used to that question but it borders on incompetence. That is something we should ask as well.
My fourth concern is about all the rogue states. I have only talked about a few of them. I do not want to say that these guys are bad, that I have included all the bad ones. I have not. Not all of them are as bad as others. However there are problems that we are not facing up to.
In conclusion, we support the signing of this treaty. Let us get on with it. Above all, let us not make Bill C-52 something by which to say we are wonderful and great for signing this treaty. My goodness, it should have been ratified a month after we signed it and we should have moved on. What should we move on? That is the problem. I have not seen a game plan of the government to move on in areas that Canada can do its job.
We can do our job in Kashmir, with Palestine and Israel, in North Korea and in Sudan. We have a position that allows us to get on both sides to deal with the issues and to become diplomatic leaders in the world. Then we could hold ourselves up and say that as Canadians we are proud we have really done something.
That is the position the government should take instead of simply glorifying itself as it is so prone to do with the Canada accord and all kinds of things.
