Mr. Speaker, today the debate is on a motion intended to congratulate the government on a job well done in the area of government finances. Of course you will realize we do not share that view.
I listened carefully to the hon. member for the Liberal Party who just spoke, and I will get back to what she said later on. In fact, towards the end of her speech, she said she was pleased because people had told her this government did not reduce its deficit by attacking the most vulnerable in our society but by cutting subsidies to business, and so forth.
We will put that in perspective later on, and maybe she should provide some figures or information for the constituent who said that, because the exact opposite is true. The main sectors affected since this government came to power-and I will explain that later on-are transfers to the provinces and unemployment insurance. It is largely these two sectors, as well as some economic growth, that enabled the government to reduce its deficit.
In the case of unemployment insurance, it is an artificial reduction. I will elaborate on all that, but I will also comment on the pre-budget consultation process as such. In fact, this is the second year we have had these consultations. I am not so sure the process has improved over time. Perhaps certain technical details such as organizing round table discussions instead of hearings, could be seen as an improvement. However, when we consult people without providing a context, without parameters, as we did this year, there are certain consequences. The groups that appeared
before us had to answer several questions formulated by the Minister of Finance, without exactly knowing where the debate was leading and without necessarily having access to updated information which we did not receive until after the consultations. I will talk about all that as well.
I will discuss program review, which is an important element, and the fact that the Minister of Finance just announced there will be a phase II. I will also discuss what happened in the past few days, and I am referring to a proposal from the government of Quebec which was dismissed out of hand by the finance minister. When Quebec is willing to start a dialogue on a serious and constructive basis with genuine decentralization as the ultimate goal, it is rather surprising that the response to this initiative should be a quick and categoric no. So we are going to discuss that, plus corporate taxation and some of the measures that are in the works. So let us have a look at these items one by one.
First, the pre-budget consultations. This was the second year. Last year, the Minister of Finance came to explain his position. He came with a whole launch kit, with his video cassettes and documents. He managed to make these consultations meaningful, up to a point. This year, the process was somewhat delayed, because obviously the Minister of Finance did not want to appear in person before the committee in the middle of the referendum campaign in October. The minister preferred to postpone his appearance and let the hearings proceed during the whole month of November, without appearing at the beginning of the hearings to tell people what he had in mind.
Therefore, we found ourselves in a situation where, contrary to what was said-well, in some instances, witnesses made proposals that were constructive to a certain extent-many groups came solely to defend their own corporate interests, unfortunately. They said: "Our sector is vital. What we do is important, so do not touch us, but do look at all the rest". We cannot comment on the rest, because we have neither the knowledge nor the information to do so.
On this point, I agreed with the witnesses. Very often they spoke of overlap and briefly explained the various types, especially in Quebec and western Canada. We heard very little talk of decentralization and overlap in Ontario.
These people asked us about things and said they could not get hold of studies on the subject. It is unfortunate, because the Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs says he did studies, but never made them public. It is as if management of public funds does not concern the public. It is as if documents should remain hidden somewhere and used only by cabinet. No, this is not the way things should work. If we want to consult people seriously, we have to inform them. We have a long way to go on this.
If we really want public consultation we will have to do it in some way other than having a committee make a show of touring the provinces telling people it is listening to them, when it is not necessarily.
The interim report of the finance committee is not particularly good. It is, obviously, not the final report, but it is not up to the level of an end of session report or a high school paper. It is really too bad that, with all the expertise of the members and the personnel involved in the committee's work, the result is so ordinary. It is regrettable. Let us hope that the January report will contain more detail. This will not be easy, however, given the way the minister categorizes these consultations, providing no specific objective, no particular direction as to what he wants by way of information really, and so this is the way we end up.
I am disappointed by and rather critical of this process, which, in my opinion, does not provide many positive benefits. I will now address this issue before moving on to unemployment and transfer payments.
I would first like to talk about the program review. The Minister of Finance told us that the program review was about to enter Phase II. This means that every program involving government spending will be assessed as to effectiveness and need.
One of the problems is that parliamentarians face elections every few years. Programs are put in place by different political parties and different governments and their goals set at a specific point in time. In the mid-1970s, for instance, the government decided to create a tax credit to stimulate research in a particular area. In 1995, however, this has become less of a priority. Programs should be assessed more according to their initial goals and to whether they meet a current need. I imagine that a program review does in fact assess the need for a given program.
Our current budget situation requires that we set priorities. This means keeping what we deem most important, and to do so, we need information. All this is done behind closed doors with just a few people. This is no way to achieve a consensus and convince people to make necessary but difficult efforts to improve public finances. Until we give a sense of equity to these measures and until people feel that everyone is doing his or her fair share, there will not be a consensus. When this information is not made public, people wonder what they are hiding and why. Do they want to keep some bad programs or to eliminate some good programs? Perhaps. To avoid this kind of embarrassment, the government has decided to do everything in secret.
I would like to talk to the minister about the upcoming Phase II.
If he is serious about it, he will start by releasing what came out of phase I, and then proceed to phase II. That could make things interesting. I am convinced that there are people who would have interesting things to say on the subject. Their comments could form the basis for his next round of consultations. Instead of using these studies as a basis, he should release them and make them available to groups interested in participating in consultations. That will make for a real budget consultation process involving public participation.
We do not hear enough from ordinary citizens. It is all well to hear from formal groups, but these already have a voice; they are in contact with the various department and opposition critics. Regular folks are the least represented in this debate. At hearings, they sometimes end up sitting at the same table as the chairman of the Chamber of Commerce, who has the staff to prepare briefs and what not for him. This forum then becomes intimidating for these people. It is not the kind of forum that attracts ordinary citizens, at least very few of them and not as many this year as last year.
In time, only corporate interests will participate in this forum. I am not saying that they are all bad; there are a few that are great and quite legitimate in the bunch, but the problem is that we already hear from them. We already know their positions, and these contain very few surprises, because there are other means available to them to make themselves heard. So, this whole issue needs to be reviewed.
Moving to deficit reduction. The Minister of Finance just announced his targets for the years to come and gave us an additional piece of information: this year's deficit will be $32.7 billion. The deficit will be reduced next year, down to 3 per cent of the GDP, which means that it will be somewhere between 24 and 25 billion dollars. The following year, it will be brought down to $17 billion. No one can oppose deficit reduction, which is a laudable goal.
However, we can be critical of two things regarding the means used to that end. The first one is the transfer payments. As we know, transfer payments to the provinces are part of federal government expenditures, since it collects revenues and then makes transfer payments to the provinces.
This is the way it used to be done in certain areas such as post-secondary education, health, as well as the old Canada Assistance Plan, or CAP. Now, these transfer payment programs are grouped together under the Canada Social Transfer. The various transfer payments are combined into a single consolidated category, so that only one payment is made.
In so doing, the minister pursues two objectives. The first one is to make things less transparent, so that he can say: "We put all this together, but we reduced the payment by a certain amount". It then becomes difficult to accuse the minister of making direct cuts in the health, education or social assistance sector, since he is making a cut in the global payment made for all three areas. He says to the provinces: "It is up to you to cut where you want. You have a choice between health, education and social assistance. I reduced the overall amount paid to you for these areas. You do what you can with what you have and you pay the political price attached to it".
We must remember that this means $2.5 billion in cuts for 1996-97 and another $4.5 billion for 1997-98. That is a lot of money. My hon. colleague from the Liberal Party said earlier that cuts to social expenditures were not as steep as those made to business grants. That is just not true. Cuts to business grants made so far and over the next to years amount to about half, perhaps $1.5 billion, when transfer payments primarily used to fund social services will be reduced by $7 billion.
There is an order of magnitude there. Cuts to the Canadian social transfer alone will be four or five times larger. And that is not taking into account successive UI reforms, which, once again, are much deeper and wider in scope than cuts to business grants. So, let us not draw long bows here and let us be honest. The people should know that the cuts in question were made mainly to government social expenditures.
We could argue to determine whether these cuts were necessary or not. The hon. member may think that they are appropriate. She may think what she wants; she is perfectly within her rights. But she cannot tell people that cuts were not made there. The figures and the facts speak for themselves. The hon. member should set the record straight with her constituents, who believed her when she said that only business grants would be affected.
So, as far as the Canadian social transfer is concerned, Quebec alone will bear 26 per cent of the cuts, the first round of cuts. During the first year, there will be $2.5 billion in cuts, of which Quebec will bear 26 per cent. The following year, we are not quite sure yet how extensive cuts will be because the applicable criteria have not been set.
According to a document issued by the Minister of Human Resources Development, the new Canadian social transfer will be distributed on a population basis, which means that Quebec would absorb 42 per cent, or $1.9 billion, of the $4.5 billion in transfer payments to be cut in the second year. That is a lot of money. Especially when you think that, if the current criteria were maintained, Quebec's share of the cuts would be $1.2 billion. That is already a substantial amount. But with the new criteria, Quebec will lose an extra $700 million.
There have been discussions these past few days and an interesting proposal was put forward, but I will come back to that later, if I have time. The minister will soon have to be more precise about where he stands on this issue. Our point is that, overall, if the
federal government reduces transfer payments to the provinces, it does not really spell deficit reduction for ordinary citizens, for the taxpayers, because the problem has only been shifted from Ottawa to the provinces.
In turn, the provinces then have to make cuts and pay the political price for this. They are the ones left with the unpleasant task of explaining to their people what must be done to reduce the deficit. It is no easy task. Here they are washing their hands of it and saying that they are putting their fiscal house in order. Part of this is an illusion.
The other part that is illusory is the UI account. In the last five years, the UI account has been funded by employees and employers, which means that UI premiums are paid by insured workers through payroll deductions and by their employers. The government does not make any contributions to the UI fund. It is funded solely by the employees and their employers.
When this funding method was adopted in 1990-during the recession-, the UI account was running a deficit, which the government had to absorb. In the first three years, the fund ran a deficit, thus accumulating a three year debt. Since the 1994 UI reforms, however, the UI fund has run a surplus. This year, this surplus will reach some $5 billion.
If we look at the five years since employee and employer premiums became the only source of funding, the UI fund will have accumulated a surplus of about $1.2 billion at the end of this year. The fund therefore did not run a deficit for those five years.
Another $5 billion surplus is forecast for next year. The accumulated surplus will exceed $6 billion. The Minister of Finance has not said anything about raising benefits or reducing employee and employer premiums next year in order to stabilize, to contain a surplus that could reach $11 billion in three years in this account funded by employees and employers.
The government uses this surplus to give the impression of reducing its deficit. Without unemployment insurance in this year's books, the deficit would be $37.7 billion.
If the fund was balanced this year, for example, the deficit would be $37.7 billion. A different accounting method must be used, as well as a different account, so that we have a better balanced system and that the government does not use the UI account to create an indirect tax on employment.
We do not agree-and I will end on that note because I am running out of time-with the fact that the government significantly reduced its deficit through transfer payments and changes to the UI account. It will have to truly tackle other issues. It will have to take a hard look at the corporate tax system and conduct a real review of programs, so as to see which ones are no longer essential.
The government will arrive at a more comprehensive, permanent and stable solution that way than by simply making minor changes to its accounting method, or by off-loading the whole problem onto the provinces and never tackling the real issue.
This is why we will try, in our report, to reflect that spirit and ensure that the government will head in the right direction in terms of reducing its deficit.