Mr. Speaker, I will be splitting my time with the hon. member for Beauharnois—Salaberry.
First I would like to congratulate the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of the Environment. She has been working on this file for quite a long time. In fact the parliamentary secretary has been here throughout all of the debate.
I want to thank her personally because in October I held a Kyoto round table for four hours in my riding. Representatives from Stelco, TransCanada Pipelines, climatologists from the University of Toronto, the parliamentary secretary, a director general from Environment Canada and an environmental firm from my riding talked about these issues. I brought everyone out to look at the impact of Kyoto and to get real input on the issue.
The first question was why did Canada support Kyoto. Canada has always believed in a multilateral approach and through the United Nations process we believe this is the most effective means of ensuring global action. Kyoto is not the end in itself. It is but a first step in a process that will deal with climate change over a period of time. The process will continue to evolve. Therefore there is no definitive answer today as there was no definitive answer on other issues, but we know there is enough information to say that action must be taken and it must be taken now. We have to have a plan and fortunately, we have a made in Canada plan.
Kyoto points toward greater energy efficiency, which is important for Canadians; sustainable growth, an area which I will be talking more on; innovative technologies, and Canada has become a leading environmental country in terms of exporting technologies around the world; cleaner air; and of course lower greenhouse gas emissions.
The Kyoto round table that I held was important because it gave constituents in my riding, the business community, industry, academics and young people an opportunity to hear from the experts. Clearly not everyone was there to say the same thing, although they all did agree on one thing, that action needs to be taken. On the question of pace, there were some differences, but everyone agreed that inaction was not and could not be an option.
Since 1997 the government has been in consultation with stakeholders from the provinces and territories, with key industry sectors, with the public, and others. I thought it was incumbent on me as a member of Parliament to host a round table and not just in that forum but also to send out information and to continually get input from my constituents. I believe that it was useful in providing information, receiving information and helping me in my comments today.
There has been much talk about the costs of ratifying the Kyoto protocol. It seems that the skeptics have forgotten to look, with due respect, at the financial benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Yes, there will be costs in meeting the targets of the Kyoto protocol and no one on this side of the House has suggested otherwise. However the government believes that they are manageable and small compared to the impacts of not taking action.
It is important to point out that the government is committed to work, and has continued to show that it is prepared to work, with the provincial and territorial governments, business and industry to refine the plan and to develop implementation strategies.
Under the plan we are developing, it is important to emphasize that no particular province or region will be asked to bear an unreasonable share of the burden. Canadian business will remain competitive in the North American and importantly, the global marketplace. We will regularly assess progress and make adjustments to changing circumstances.
One thing I have heard is that the United States is not signing the accord. It is true that the United States is not signing it, and the United States did not sign the small arms treaty nor did it sign the landmines treaty.
The United States, for whatever reason, has not taken a multilateral approach, yet 42 out of 50 U.S. states have established regulatory regimes to deal with the issue of CO
2
emission reductions. Therefore, to suggest somehow that the United States is not signing means that we do not have to worry, is a falsehood. To suggest somehow that the United States is doing nothing is, of course, untrue because 42 states out of 50 are taking action.
I believe that we have a responsibility as parliamentarians to take the necessary steps. Over the last five years, evidence, in my view, has been insurmountable. There are those who would suggest otherwise, and of course they are entitled to those opinions, but I believe, as one parliamentarian in the House, that not to go ahead with Kyoto would be the wrong thing to do.
The best evidence tells us that while there is still some costs with Kyoto, they will be modest. They will be balanced across the country and across the economy. These costs are not actual losses compared to today but are in terms of slightly less growth than otherwise would be the case.
I point out, for example, that Canada's gross domestic product will grow by about 17.5% as we take action on climate change over the next eight years. That is about 0.4% less growth than we might have otherwise expected.
While it is impossible to forecast over a 8 to 10 year period the estimated economic impact, the most likely scenario is about .4% of the GDP. This a modest impact relative to the strong economic growth over the same period.
Probably the single most important point to make is that this work of preparing estimates has been a cooperative effort between the Government of Canada and the provinces over the years. The federal government has worked closely with the provinces because the goal is an approach that enables all of Canada to be part of meeting our Kyoto target.
Every time the policy option has become clearer, the modeling has been updated to reflect the most likely situation. The best case forecast has been regularly revised to reflect the most up to date reviews and comments about Canada's economic prospects.
This is important because the context in which Canada will be taking climate change action has changed over time and so too have the estimates of the potential impacts of Kyoto on Canadian jobs and Canada's economy.
It is important to bear in mind that climate change is expected to lead to droughts, of which we have already seen clear evidence, and to severe weather events such as floods and intense storms. The scientists who study these issues, certainly the climatologist who I had at my round table, indicated that more of these episodes were likely to happen in the coming years. One only has to remember the drought of 2001 which cost the Canadian economy $5 billion, or the 1998 ice storm which cost Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick more than $6 billion.
It is important to understand that the scenario modeled is not the plan. Some have been interchanging that. It is an analytical exercise that enables us to develop and fine tune the plan in a way to even better moderate and balance impacts across the different regions of the country and the different sectors of the economy.
However if we were to take the approach that Kyoto is the final end, then maybe we could accept some of the arguments that I have heard in the House in the past while. The reality is that it is an evolving process. We will be able to meet these targets because of the consultations and the work. I would say that one of the most important areas on which we have been working has been with the cities of Canada and the work we have done through the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, the 20% club, to reduce CO
2
emissions by 20% over 10 years. In the end the implementation will be done by the people of Canada in the cities of Canada.
As a credit, many of the key cities in Canada and some smaller communities have signed on in conjunction with the Department of the Environment. I lay that out again for members and would entertain any questions.