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Finance committee  Thank you for the compliment, and thanks to all of you who have complimented the work of the office. With regard to building back or having a stimulus package, I've already responded, I think, to Madam May, who had a similar question. As long as these are productivity-enhancing measures, I think they have prospects for longer-term growth or for inducing longer-term growth.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  I do not. What I've seen is mostly in terms of deconfinement or resumption of businesses, but I haven't seen economic stimulus plans by countries. It doesn't mean they don't exist. It just means that I'm not aware of any right now. I've been quite busy with the current report and costing of government measures.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  I see the absence of information that is credible and non-partisan—well, let me rephrase that. I see the role of the office being enhanced as a result of the pandemic. There is clearly an appetite for non-partisan and objective information and analysis when it comes to the state of the nation's economy and national finances.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  I don't have that number off the top of my head, but that area has attracted quite a bit of interest in the office and from me. We are closely following that, and we are looking at the total number of loan guarantees and contingent liabilities that could result from all these various hundreds of billions of dollars of loan guarantees and support programs to the private sector through various government agencies.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  It is concerning, especially if you consider a scenario where interest rates start going up and debt-servicing costs become unbearable. However, such a scenario is not likely. It doesn't mean it's impossible. It is indeed concerning, but the Governor of the Bank of Canada and various stakeholders have warned Canadians for a number of years to stop piling on such high levels of debt because it's risky.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  It's true that once the economy is over a very difficult period such as a crisis, reducing government intervention tends to have positive impacts. One can think of government interventions that are necessary in times of crisis, such as in 2008-09 or the current crisis. It's not unthinkable to imagine a world where we return to the pre-crisis level of government spending and that unleashes economic growth because of the sad economic downturn that took place.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  That's a very interesting question. I think the fundamental reason why we are not in the same position coming out of COVID-19 as we were coming out of World War II is the demographic structure. Coming out of World War II, the population was much younger and the baby boom was about to start, leading to a long period of growth.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  Sure. Coming out of the last recession, 2008-09, the deficit level was very high back then—or so we thought—at $55 billion. However, with efforts, the economy started growing again, and the fiscal situation of the country improved relatively quickly. It seemed long at the time. All that to say, there is hope, as long as governments intervene to support people in need and also withdraw these supports when they are no longer necessary.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  I would like to be able to elaborate more on that but we don't have details of some of these measures. For example, the large employer emergency financing facility is a new measure, and I don't have the details, so I'm not in a position to determine how much it would cost. The same with the extension of the wage subsidy past June.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  We finished drafting the report on April 24. These days, a week can feel like a month. Sometimes it can feel like a year depending on who you are living with, because we're spending most of our time at home. Lots of things change. I would say that on the debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizing once the economy recovers, again, it depends a lot on government action, for example, whether it will return to deficit levels that we saw before the pandemic, which seems very unlikely, at least in the short term, and maybe even in the medium term, given the state of the economy.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  We looked at how much it would cost, but we did not determine whether we could afford it or not. Whether or not to increase the guaranteed income supplement and old age security benefits is a public policy choice. It depends on the choices that parliamentarians are prepared to make.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  To my knowledge, we have not looked into exactly how much money the government is losing as a result of web giants. However, we have considered a tax on revenue above a certain threshold for technology firms, namely, the web giants. We don't really need to name names; we know who they are.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  We looked at what it would cost to increase the guaranteed income supplement and old age security benefits.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  Thank you, Mr. Brunelle-Duceppe. That is not an issue that we have looked at, at least not since I have been the Parliamentary Budget Officer. That being said, it probably should be considered. Service providers hold a virtual monopoly over interchange fees. Merchants don't really have any other choice but to offer this method of payment.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  That's a very broad question, Madam May. You're putting me to the test right now. There's a long list of potentially productivity-enhancing stimulus measures. One can think of investing in technology or investing in health research, for example, which these days is what we clearly are begging for.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux