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Finance committee  Sure. I don't believe that the marginal cost of anything can be close to zero without there being an infinite demand for it. You mentioned that if the marginal cost of energy gets close to zero, then there'll be no incentive to save energy if energy costs virtually nothing. Demand will meet supply and there'll be a cost to it, so its cost won't go back to zero.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  When we released the fiscal sustainability report the last time, in January, and the report before that in 2018, they showed clearly that the federal government was on a sustainable track over the next 75 years and that provinces and territories, in aggregate, were not. I expected, maybe naively, that the discussion in the country would probably evolve towards different responsibilities or different sharing of revenues between the federal and provincial governments.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  The last report we released on that, the fiscal sustainability report on the provinces and territories, was released in January. We didn't have sufficient data to disaggregate the three territories, but I don't think individual territories would have that different a picture. When it comes to updating that report or the numbers, I think it would probably be premature to do that now, given that the economic and fiscal situation is very much in flux.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  A crisis like the one we are living in, as sad as it is, presents opportunities. As you mentioned, there will certainly be a need and a desire for stimulus measures to be implemented. When that time comes, the government should seriously consider productivity-enhancing stimulus measures as opposed to pure spending, which doesn't lead to greater well-being and greater wealth-generating capacity, for example.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  In my humble opinion, the sooner the better. However, it's a bit difficult to ask the government to come up with such a plan right now, as governments—and not just the federal government, but provincial and territorial governments as well—are all struggling to keep up with the pandemic and to protect Canadians.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  It's undoubtedly worse than it was before. Even though the health situation in the territories might not be as bad as it is in some provinces, the economic impact is probably felt very strongly in the territories, as it is in most regions of the country. With the economic downturn and a recession this year, it's clear that the economic situation in all provinces and territories has clearly not improved.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  In such a hypothetical scenario, one would have to look at the new level of the CERB. I think the question was related to the disincentives to work. Of course, the moment that you provide a benefit to individuals without an associated requirement to provide work effort, there is an disincentive to work, but that's a totally different question.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  In that scenario, we see physical distancing measures being gradually eased over the spring, and being lifted not before the end of the calendar year. Some measures would remain in place throughout the year—so provinces and the federal government would continue to have revenues—but the revenues would certainly not go back to the pre-pandemic level during the current fiscal year.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  I think that it's possible to think in those terms, but I think the cost of doing nothing would just mean that the government would have ended up being forced to do something anyway, but probably something even more expensive or even more radical than what the government felt that it had to do.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  Yes, but when I make comparisons, I try to go with the same level for comparable numbers. For example, if we consider only federal debt levels in Canada, we consider only federal debt levels in other federations.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  Sure. In the absence of any government support—wage subsidies, income support measures, loans to businesses—we would have seen widespread bankruptcies, both at the individual level and the corporate level. There would be even more restaurants that would say they're not coming back.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  I don't think anybody is taking for granted that rates will never go up. The scenario we released goes only to the end of the current calendar year, and we don't anticipate a return to high interest rates. Those who have dared to put out projections or scenarios beyond the current calendar year are not envisioning a return to the high interest rates of the 1980s.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  Only that I agree that our economy, the entire economy, is very sensitive to interest rates. As Mr. Poilievre mentioned, should interest rates start going up, the government would have to incur significantly higher debt-servicing costs, but households and companies would have to face much higher debt-servicing costs as well.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux

Finance committee  That number would have to take into consideration the provincial debt, as well as municipal and other public bodies, such as school boards, hospitals and so on. I don't have that number as to where it was in 1995-96, but I suspect it was probably way above 100% of GDP. We could get back to you with that level of debt if you want, but for sure, it was much higher than just the federal debt.

May 12th, 2020Committee meeting

Yves Giroux