Government Operations committee  It's very difficult to express an opinion on that, given that companies' decisions to invest are based on a number of factors—the regulatory environment, the social environment and so on. This would be one aspect of it, but it's very difficult to express an opinion that takes into account only one aspect.

Government Operations committee  Well, once you factor in the rebate and also the economic impacts, based on our modelling, the majority of households will see a negative impact as a result of the carbon tax.

Government Operations committee  The highest is quintile one, and the highest, we can call them MPs, but we call them quintile five. That's a joke.

Government Operations committee  These are averages, of course, and it varies across provinces, depending on the particular economic conditions and the industrial structure of each province and jurisdiction.

Government Operations committee  No, because they are very difficult to estimate in the short term. We've made that point quite often. It's very difficult to determine which part of forest fires or natural disasters are due to climate change and which ones would occur normally anyway. It's very difficult to determine these aspects.

Government Operations committee  There are obviously costs. When we saw the wildfires last year, it was obvious that the people who were suffering from respiratory illnesses and who were in these surroundings were suffering from the wildfires, but it's very difficult to estimate these costs. In good part, that's why we have not tried to estimate these.

Government Operations committee  The fiscal impact is the impact of paying the tax directly—for example, filling up the gas tank or paying for gas to heat the home. There's also the indirect cost. For example, if you buy a service or goods, there's an energy component embedded, plus the GST that's applied to that tax.

Government Operations committee  That's a policy decision for which you as parliamentarians are better qualified to determine than I am.

Government Operations committee  Yes. There is an adjustment in the economy that's expected to take place by reducing our use of fossil fuels. That will have impacts, certainly in the short term, while the economy adjusts. That increases the costs, for example, of transportation companies, which presumably will have lower profits to redistribute to shareholders, for example.

Government Operations committee  My understanding is that it is a part of it, but it's not something that we have done a report on. My understanding at this point is that it's one part of the $15 billion.

Government Operations committee  I'm not yet aware of the governance issues around the Canada growth fund.

Government Operations committee  I don't know the exact details of this item.

Government Operations committee  I think that's a question that would be better answered by the deputy minister at PSPC, or the minister, unfortunately.

Government Operations committee  Thank you for doing a very good summary of our economic and fiscal outlook. I should probably borrow that. The 0.8% of GDP that's expected to be the deficit in 2026-27 is about $25.1 billion. That is 0.8% of the GDP in 2026-27. When it comes to how the government could go back to balance if it wished to do so, it could of course reduce spending.

Government Operations committee  It would be for a different fiscal year. What we did the last time around was for the current fiscal year. What Mr. Bachrach is asking, I think, relates to the upcoming fiscal year and the following year, so the one—