National Defence committee  My honest answer is that I'm not sure. I'm not an expert on what's going on internally within Russia. Rob may be able to speak to this.

National Defence committee  I disagree with that because again we do have mandates, and departments and agencies have their lanes that they are expected to stick to. The only way that this thing works is, if we're looking at this from the standpoint of North American defence, that the military have the ability to integrate and work with all partners in this whole-of-government comprehensive approach that doesn't just see it as “it's immaterial from a legal standpoint”.

National Defence committee  From what I've been tracking, it's interesting. Canada has played an intriguing role in Russian threat perceptions relating to the Arctic. We've been mobilized by Putin since 2007 as the country or Arctic state that's arming, rebuilding, and preparing—to do whatever the Russian imagination wants to have us doing as a revisionist actor in the region—as though we are the country that's preparing for conflict along the lines Rob is suggesting, and that we're the country that's the catalyst for this arms race that's going on.

National Defence committee  Northern watch.

National Defence committee  I think it's looking at the purpose of Russia's combat forces. If they're using them or envisaging them as expeditionary forces, I have no idea where they're going to go. We have enough difficulty historically in sustaining our own forces in our own Arctic, so the thought that the Russians are going to send land forces to parachute down on Canadian sovereign territory and effectively create World War III, to me is a very unlikely scenario, a highly improbable scenario.

National Defence committee  Of course, Rob paints an interesting picture of Russians sort of bristling with these new investments, these new subs. When were the keels laid for those subs? It was in the late 1990s for some of them. It's taken a long time for them to realize a very modest fragment of a recapitalization program and their northern fleet is still a tiny shadow of its former self during the Cold War.

National Defence committee  Yes, please. I think some of the answers are airframes to intercept potential Russian bombers that are going to test boundaries. They're not transgressing Canadian airspace. That would be an act of war, but coming up to it, we need to be able to meet them absolutely as a demonstration of our defensive resolve.

National Defence committee  I agree with Rob wholeheartedly on this and I think the briefs you received from Dr. Charron and Dr. Fergusson earlier were right on the mark. NORAD is the way to build in that maritime watch component. It is a very resilient, long-standing partnership that works very well. This is a critical aspect of where we should be investing our resources with our premier partner and ally.

National Defence committee  Yes. I'm concerned because every year projects like that are delayed, costs increase. Again, I don't think we're increasingly vulnerable because we don't have those hulls in the water by a certain fixed date. Again, that would belie my overall threat assessment to say we don't face an acute military threat in the region.

National Defence committee  Thank you for the question. I'm glad you highlight something that I think is much more short- and medium-term than a lot of the discussions we have. Looking at threats and hazards, military threat assessments, whole-of-government threat assessments, Public Safety across to Environment Canada emphasize a great deal more uncertainty brought about, which is a common theme between Rob and myself.

National Defence committee  Certainly. Rangers are a long-established organization. They've been around since 1947. They have worked out a really incredible balance between national security dimensions to their role and also community interests and looking out for their communities. Certainly their ongoing operations are a challenge, like they are for all other northerners in terms of their activities on the land.

National Defence committee  I think what Professor Huebert is leaving out, though, is the reason why the moratorium is declared is there is no evidence either way to support the idea of fish stocks in the high Arctic basin. Everything else is scripted according to international law. If there are pressure points I don't anticipate that they're going to emerge in the Arctic.

National Defence committee  Great. Thank you for the question.

National Defence committee  Absolutely. Russian increases in expenditures are largely aspirational. It's wonderful for Mr. Putin to have these bold plans. Whether or not he can pay for them and finance them I think is still very much in doubt. New air bases are taking out of mothballs old Cold War air bases and infrastructure.

National Defence committee  Thank you for the opportunity to be here. Climate change, newly accessible resources, new maritime routes, unresolved boundary disputes, announcements of new investments in military capabilities to defend sovereign rights—no wonder the Arctic has emerged as a topic of tremendous hype and deep-seated misperceptions over the past decade, spawning persistent debates about whether the region's future is likely to follow a cooperative trend or whether it's fated to spiral into unbridled competition and conflict.