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National Defence committee  Russia does face some severe supply challenges, in particular for some of its complex weapons. Their weapons are dependent on components that are manufactured in Europe, the U.S. and South Korea, etc., the access to which we can potentially disrupt, so we have some agency there in making it harder for them.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  The critical protection is to prevent the Russians occupying any more territory and to try to negotiate for the return of children who have already been seized. I've been in areas that were occupied and have been through the records in some of those areas. It's clear that many children were taken into Russia by the Russian armed forces.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  Sure. I think that for the last few years there has been an obsession with misinformation on social media and that kind of thing as though that were the primary issue. While the Russians do exacerbate those problems, and it's useful to them, what they are actually doing is manufacturing constituencies that elites can then use.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  I think it's more in relation to Russia. If we think about Russia's position, Russia has burned all of its soft power. It is in a conflict, and in Russia's terms, it is fighting NATO—not militarily, but that's how the Kremlin talks about this conflict. Now, irrespective of where the line of control is in Ukraine, that leaves a live, very dangerous relationship between NATO and Russia.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  —which may mean we need to make it more uncomfortable.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  I'm afraid, for legal reasons, I can't comment on the content of the leak specifically, but I can comment on the consequences of it. I think there's been a long process of building up trust with Ukraine, which has been very important in making sure that we provide the right support, because there are a lot of things that aren't necessarily as helpful as others.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  I think there are plenty of examples of how the war in Ukraine is disrupting industry and doing economic harm to us. Ending it more quickly is important for producing economic stability. A good example would be what the outpouring of grain into Romania is doing in Europe at the moment.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  In terms of weaknesses, I think a major one is the distinction I made between a military strategy, which NATO has the muscle memory and the mechanisms to develop, versus a political strategy. NATO can be a coordination body for that strategy, and the military strategy has to align with the political strategy, but ultimately NATO doesn't have the same authorities in that space.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  I'm not familiar specifically with the numbers in terms of Canada's production, but I would note that Canada is integral to the U.S. effort to expand production. In the supply chain for U.S. munitions, very often those munitions go back and forth between the U.S. and Canada. That reflects a number of specific manufacturing capabilities that you have, but also Canada's ability to generate raw materials for explosive energetics that other countries don't necessarily have access to.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  I think there has been a problem across the alliance of many governments, particularly outside of defence, in thinking about this as a peacetime problem and following traditional processes. Certainly in the U.K., we are not seeing a rapid acceleration in process, partly because it does require buy-in from other bits of government.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  Certainly. The Ukrainians are having to fire approximately 90,000 to 140,000 rounds of 155-millimetre ammunition per month. The United States previously was able to produce fewer than 20,000 rounds per month. It is looking to significantly increase that capacity. However, by the end of the year, in public reporting, we're still looking at a capacity of around 40,000 rounds per month.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling

National Defence committee  Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak with you today. My background in connection with this topic is that I have been working on the ground in Ukraine throughout the war, essentially in every other month. I've been largely working with the Ukrainian military, conducting assessments.

April 21st, 2023Committee meeting

Dr. Jack Watling