Natural Resources committee  If you can hang on a second, I'll just reference.... We are probably going to have to get back to you on the specific details of how it breaks down by gas product versus crude oil versus all the elements, but a fairly hefty portion of it is crude oil exports, it being the largest commodity of the energy that is exported.

Natural Resources committee  Sure. It is 99% of crude that goes to the United States, 100% of natural gas, and 100% of electricity. So 1% of our crude oil is exported to countries other than the United States. The petroleum products go predominantly to the United States as well.

Natural Resources committee  Today about half of the oil sands production is upgraded into synthetic crude, based on 2011 figures. So it's about 860,000 barrels a day. It's projected that by 2020 that will rise to about 1.4 million barrels per day that would be upgraded. Those numbers are based on current proposals that exist within the regulatory frame and on public knowledge that companies have.

Natural Resources committee  I don't have figures beyond 2035.

Natural Resources committee  I'd probably add that energy production and energy activities in one province don't necessarily hold only within that province. So the service sectors, the supporting engineering and financial and investment community, the training and education, and the products that are consumed by those companies that are active in the energy sector are produced all over the country.

Natural Resources committee  Today, the refineries in eastern Canada, whether they're in Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, or Newfoundland, operate using imported crude. Those refineries employ Canadians and continue to employ Canadians and are doing reasonably well, but their margins and their efforts are fairly tight given that the global energy price they pay and the markets they work in are fairly competitive.

Natural Resources committee  Certainly it would contribute to preserving those jobs, and certainly there is discussion that has been in the media of different refineries looking at the possibility of expanding or considering whether they want to add an upgrading capability to process bitumen or other forms of crude energy products.

Natural Resources committee  That's a tough one. Certainly, the price of gasoline is a fairly competitive market that works on a kind of continental scale, so you tend to see movement of the cost structure around gasoline and diesel between markets fairly fluidly, given the ability for people to move product using rail, shipping, and barges and different forms.

Natural Resources committee  You have a global market, and so with the ability of producers to reach markets and ships and to compete to sell that crude to willing buyers as a globally traded commodity, you're not going to sell it for $85 to a refinery in—

Natural Resources committee  We can't answer the question and say, “Yes, there will be cheaper gas.” That's not an answer I can give you. I can tell you that there's a likelihood of less volatility in pricing. In eastern Canada you typically see regulated markets for pricing of gasoline in which the price of gasoline changes on a little more of a weekly scale than a daily scale.

Natural Resources committee  I'm not a finance expert. I think generally speaking the only three that contribute are Newfoundland and Labrador, Alberta, and British Columbia—I mean Saskatchewan.

Natural Resources committee  Apologies, Mr. Anderson.

Natural Resources committee  I think most economists would say strong resource economies that contribute tremendous wealth to the public purse, if you will.

Natural Resources committee  I'm not sure I could make that policy statement, but I think one might be able to draw that conclusion. My view would be that the economy is productive in many different ways, and certainly the resource economy contributes substantial amounts. Those three provinces that you reference as contributing more than others tend to have fairly large resource economy aspects and energy aspects, but large parts of the economies of other provinces contribute as well, so I can't really comment on the complete transfer payment aspect.

Natural Resources committee  Thank you very much, everybody. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for inviting me to appear before the committee this afternoon. It's a pleasure to be here. We're delighted that we could be among the first speakers for your new study on this particular subject, which is extremely important to Canada.