Industry committee  It could and probably will happen in the part of the Canadian service sector that is competing head-on with Americans. Tourism would be a good example, although there are a lot of people in Canada who are maybe catering to European as opposed to American. But a lot of Canadian tourist operators are taking quite a hit, as are all sorts of entertainment people in Toronto and elsewhere.

Industry committee  Take the budget of HRSD or the money from EI and allocate a whole bunch of it specifically to help these people if they're laid off in a manufacturing community in Ontario or in another area. Do whatever it takes in terms of identifying jobs, helping them move, and paying moving expenses.

Industry committee  I should be very clear that in terms of interprovincial mobility, the government should offer increased opportunities and assistance for those people to move. If they don't move, they should be cut back from employment insurance. I can understand people not wanting to move--

Industry committee  I'll get to that one in a minute. If they don't want to move that's fine, but should people elsewhere continue to subsidize their EI? There's no magic size for the manufacturing sector in Canada that's optimal. It depends on a lot of other things. I should point out that the manufacturing sector in Canada and in the U.S has been shrinking for quite a few years.

Industry committee  Yes, but it's not healthy if you're subsidizing an uncompetitive manufacturing sector. If it's competitive it doesn't need subsidization.

Industry committee  Advantage Canada is absolutely on the right track. In terms of its substance, it wasn't that wildly different from a document put out in November 2005 by the Liberals. The recipes for productivity have been well known for many years. That's what I'm saying, it sounds good. Now what happens is as we approach the budget one claim after another on the public purse takes away money.

Industry committee  Well, from that spinoff, you could take that money and put it into a tax break for all companies for investment. I think the answer I'm giving you is one you'd get from a lot of economists. We're really against targeted government funding to particular firms or sectors. You are much better off to take that money and use it to reduce corporate income taxes, or make depreciation rates lower, then let the market sort out who can best take advantage of it.

Industry committee  I am no expert, so I can only give some broad ideas from the way I understand it's done in a couple of other jurisdictions. I guess we really have to recognize that it's a very wide-ranging issue. It goes from helping the worker identify a job in the west, to helping a family adjust to a move.

Industry committee  Thank you. If you turn to the chart, I have the Canadian dollar forecast there. It shows, by our forecast, that over about the next six months the dollar will probably stay pretty close to par. It will be a bit under par for the latter part of 2008, and 98¢ or so for 2009. That is a combination of slightly weaker energy prices....

Industry committee  That's a bit of a tricky one. I guess I would certainly say that. One of the difficulties of course is that the Canadian dollar can move unpredictably. It was $1.10 not that long ago, in early November. Now it's pretty close to $1.00--down 10¢. You say that it has moved fast.

Industry committee  Oh, on the labour side. Yes, as I said, I'm quite sympathetic to helping on the labour side and less sympathetic to providing compensation to firms.

Industry committee  I guess what my model would lean toward is moving the unemployment insurance system much closer to a real insurance system, so the costs there would go more on the employer who can't offer 12 months of work. Why should they go to the person who is working in Toronto?

Industry committee  Do you mean in general, or simply when they're going through difficulties?

Industry committee  I would say basically not, because time and time again--and there are some very infamous examples.... So you subsidize that lumber mill--

Industry committee  I can understand your French. It must be very good. Yes, we are an economic forecasting and consulting company. And as I say to people, we have clients of all stripes in the public sector and in the private sector, in most of the economic departments of the federal and provincial governments, and of course large corporations, hydro companies, whatever.