Finance committee  Coming from Statistics Canada, I've been very far removed from the policy process over the years, and I feel very comfortable and happy with that.

Finance committee  Sure. I think it is quite revealing. Going back to the old phrase “never waste a good crisis”, this industry didn't waste the crisis in 1998. Even as oil prices were falling, I think down to $10 a barrel during that period, the industry undertook its remarkable shift from conventional to non-conventional production.

Finance committee  What you will see is, immediately, a cutback in investment. In 2008-09 we saw both auto output and investment by the auto industry fall precipitously. This time around in the oil industry, you will see little or no change in output, but you will see a big drop in investment. The investment will lead to lower output in the future, but you won't get that output response right now.

Finance committee  First of all, let's clarify the situation here. Steve is here in the position of speaking officially for the C.D. Howe Institute; I am speaking as an individual. I happen to be a research fellow at C.D. Howe, but I did not coordinate my response, as you may have noticed. I don't think it's actually in contradiction.

Finance committee  It's not so much that there is too much momentum, as that oil is so capital-intensive. Once you turn on an oil sands plant, you never turn it off, except under the most extreme circumstance.

Finance committee  Thanks for inviting me, and in particular for sitting me next to my thesis supervisor at Queen's. I'll be expecting a grade at the end of my presentation.

Finance committee  If I get a hook in the middle, you'll know what's up. I submitted a written version of my presentation in French and English, so I won't go through it in the interest of brevity. A couple of the main points I wanted to bring to your attention were, first of all, that this industry is cyclical.