Environment committee  Bill C-30 gives me elements I need to have the kind of policy—But it doesn't give you everything you need. It's incomplete.

Environment committee  I think Canada has to decide whether Kyoto is legally binding. I don't know what the decision on that is. Recalibration is not an option if it's legally binding. The Kyoto Protocol doesn't say hit this target when you can; it says hit this target by this timetable. The penalty in the protocol for not hitting the target is 30%.

Environment committee  This is very serious and it is not new. The Japanese DEIP passed into law the regulation that authorizes their customs and excise to tax all products imported from a country that has either failed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol or failed to keep its Kyoto commitments. Under world trade laws, those sanctions are permitted.

Environment committee  I can't tell you what the Government of Canada was looking at. I would maybe refer you to Mike Cleland's testimony to this committee on November 21. In 1996, 1997, and 1998, Mike Cleland was an assistant deputy minister in Natural Resources Canada. He had shared executive responsibility for the Kyoto file.

Environment committee  I thought he said there was no analysis done.

Environment committee  There is, absolutely. If you're in industry and you're trying to figure out where government thinks it wants to go--which is quite an exercise--what you would be doing today is comparing the July 2005 Liberal notice to regulate to the Conservative notice to regulate. You're probably not paying any attention whatsoever to either Bill C-288 or Bill C-30.

Environment committee  I'm looking in my speaking notes. I'd like to direct you to page 11.

Environment committee  When you get my speaking notes, you'll see the World Resources Institute's estimate of 2000 emissions and forecast 2025 emissions by country or trading bloc. Behind this graph is the assumption that everyone in the Kyoto Protocol, including Canada, completely complies with the Kyoto Protocol commitments.

Environment committee  The two questions are these: first, can it; and second, should we do it? We just went through the numbers, and as Matthew Bramley said, the amount of credits available when I drop hot air out is 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion in total over the five-year budget period. So if I take 1.5 and divide it by 5, that means 300 million a year.

Environment committee  Can I give one point? I dropped hot air out of the--

Environment committee  First of all, he's right; I did contradict myself, because I didn't stipulate, when I said I could only find 91 million tonnes, that the first thing I did was drop the hot air quota and credit out of the market before I went looking for the 91 million tonnes. As of November 29, the total number of projects that have been approved by the CDM market will generate 104 million tonnes a year.

Environment committee  My analysis actually uses 1.5 billion as the long-term forecast. I get 91 million tonnes a year. Out of a long-term forecast, that's 1.5 billion in comparison to Andrei's.

Environment committee  In my package I did an analysis for you. The difference between my response and the others is that in my assessment, if we were willing to go to the international market and could find all the international credits we wanted, and if we were comfortable that they met our requirements and weren't hot air, I can't see any possibility of securing more than 91 million tonnes a year from the international market at any price.

Environment committee  At a minimum, that's one-third of the plants that currently report their greenhouse gas emissions to the Government of Canada. The list is in the public domain. You could go through the list and pick out which one in three plants you're shutting down. People will posit that you can go to the international market and find 265 million tonnes, but I've been in the market for 11 years and can't find them—and that's before I put any reasonable criteria on the tonnes that I'm looking for.

Environment committee  Could I just comment? Every time you talk to a European, they're going to be enthusiastic about this, because the only way to stop the European market from crashing is to get Canadian, Japanese, and New Zealand money into it.