Finance committee  There are different models to calculate a natural rate of unemployment. Most economists would probably say Canada should have something just under 6%.

Finance committee  I'm not sure I understand the concept, but I'm not—

Finance committee  I'm sorry, I think even if we said the trend rate was something just below 6%, we'd still be talking about a gap of about a percentage point. And we're talking about—

Finance committee  Sir, I—

Finance committee  Thank you very much. Welcome to the committee, obviously. Briefly, on this take that somehow we're very negative, just to highlight that, we actually have pretty much the same deficit track as the government. And again, the budget is full of information that provides international comparisons of where Canada is with respect to the G-7.

Finance committee  In respect of fiscal impacts, on the Canada health transfer, we look at it pretty much as legislated, but we just look at the fiscal numbers. When we did this analysis, for example, on sustainability, we looked at trends and made projections based on those trends. We can tell what average growth is by provinces in terms of health care spending over the past ten years.

Finance committee  The government can say that providing such analyses is unnecessary. It may be more important to focus on the fiscal impact. I think that more information and transparency is better for the general debate in Parliament.

Finance committee  I think it's a good thing the government decided to make such an important decision to change the indexing factors for the Canada Health Transfer and to modify the Old Age Security Program. I think it's important to have basic information and some analyses in support of the decision.

Finance committee  I have no information about that. The government has prepared a study that claims the program has fiscal viability issues.

Finance committee  Like economists and people working in legislative offices, I think that it is more important to look at the overall structure. When we're talking about a program that is part of the spending structure, it is more important for us to examine the overall structure. We look into different things, such as Old Age Security.

Finance committee  I have no knowledge of any such documents. Budget 2012 certainly provides some information, but it does not talk about the potential consequences.

Finance committee  No, we have not conducted any such analyses.

Finance committee  When we're talking about the future, I don't think anybody knows what the accuracy will be. We'll only know when we get there. I would love to know who's going to win the hockey game tonight, as an example, right now so I could put money on the game, but we don't know. These are all predictions.

Finance committee  Yes, we'll definitely provide something in writing. Again, just to highlight, the reason we produce these fan charts is to give you a sense as to how much uncertainty there is around these estimates. Quickly, with respect to the study you referenced, I think what it showed is that there was virtually no difference between the Department of Finance numbers and PBO numbers in terms of materiality.

Finance committee  The Parliamentary Budget Officer cannot use those exact terms. As mentioned in the report, we conduct general sustainability analyses. We look into the sustainability of the whole revenue and expenditure fiscal structure. In such a context, we said that it is a good thing, not a bad thing, but that the structure is stable.