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Canada-China Relations committee  Good evening. Thank you, Mr. Chair. Ladies and gentlemen, members of the House of Commons Special Committee on the Canada–People's Republic of China Relationship, it is an honour and a responsibility to speak to you. As well, with the 18th Francophonie Summit taking place this

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  Thank you for the question. The visit by Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi was obviously exploited by Beijing and used as a pretext. There are several reasons for that. First, Beijing was prepared for the visit, which was to have taken place in the spring of

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  Thank you for your question. I think the risk lies in engaging in purely binary reasoning, in connection with the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine, and thinking that the only possible option in the strait is either a form of precarious peace or a large-scale invasion by China

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  Thank you for your question. As you pointed out, stability is fundamental today, since any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have considerable consequences, exceeding by far the already tragic consequences of the war in Ukraine. There are several ways to contribute to maintai

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  The balance of power has actually changed enormously in the Taiwan Strait, in favour of Beijing and against Taiwan. Today, the figures are between $250 and $300 billion dollars in military spending on the Chinese side and more along the lines of $15 to $20 billions on the Taiwan

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  Thank you for your question. I think a distinction has to be made in relation to the actors that have the biggest role to play. In that regard, the United States is obviously the leading actor, in particular as a result of the security guarantees given in the Taiwan Relations Ac

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  Thank you for your question. As you know, the French government wants to emphasize the concept of strategic autonomy. The alliance with the United States in no way means a 100% alignment. France is obviously not equidistant and neutral, but it does not want to align itself compl

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  Thank you very much for your question. As you mentioned, it's a very incremental push on the Chinese side, what some people might call the salami-slicing tactics. For sure, we need to support Taiwan and make sure that every time China tries to change the status quo by force, th

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  I would say the risks are limited. To be clear, the provocation would not be for these visits to continue in the same way they have for decades, but to stop them. What would be the message sent to the Taiwanese if suddenly the French, Canadian, European or even American parliamen

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  Thank you very much for the question. I would say that that Taiwanese ODA has been quite limited for the last few years. Compared to the U.K., Sweden, or even Canada, it remains a very tiny percentage of Taiwan's GDP. Taiwan could do even more. Taiwan is doing that not only with

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  The incursions are not as frequent as they were in August. Let's say the trend is slowing down a little bit, yet China has successfully changed the status quo because these incursions keep going. You have fewer of these, but you still have some incursions when you had almost none

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  This is exactly what the Chinese have been saying. They are now explaining that the median line never existed, and they are quite right. There was never a legal agreement between Beijing and Taipei on the median line, but it was a tacit agreement, and de facto that line was respe

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  It's a very tricky answer because it depends on our political determination. To go until the end, in the sense of escalating the ladder if the Chinese choose to escalate, is very tricky and very complicated. The only answer might be a coordinated answer, not only from the U.S. an

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  I do not think it would be a game-changer, to be honest. Within international organizations, it would be impossible for Taiwan to participate because the Chinese would block these attempts in the same way they've been doing since 2016. We can still of course wish and support stro

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz

Canada-China Relations committee  I would say that it's by being inclusive, as inclusive as possible, not only at the political level but in every single co-operation project we may have in the Indo-Pacific. We mentioned the ODA and a development project in the South Pacific—and it could be, of course, in southea

November 22nd, 2022Committee meeting

Dr. Antoine Bondaz