Finance committee  We didn't provide that in this document, but I believe in December of last year we provided another document that gave more detail exactly on our views on the residential housing market. We highlighted at the time that we do have a very significant adjustment going on—an even big

Finance committee  It has been updated. Our outlook has been updated, and it underlies what's shown in here. We didn't provide additional detail. I think that would be—

Finance committee  Yes. I would just say that we already have what I would consider probably as a very, I don't want to say, pessimistic or negative view, but one in which we see a very substantial decline in activity in that sector—probably much more than private sector forecasters or the Bank of

Finance committee  Yes. Again, at this time what we're looking at in terms of the share of the economy, as Tim was mentioning, is that the housing sector is at its historic peak, its highest level. We think there will be declines in activity and that the sector will move to something that's more, l

Finance committee  In our outlook this time, to take into account the uncertainty around the economic outlook, we have provided a fan chart. Basically, this is a range of possible outcomes that have varying degrees of likelihood. The idea here is to stress that we're moving beyond just looking at o

Finance committee  Fortunately, Statistics Canada published earlier last year some more detailed fiscal data sorted by province and territory. We've been taking a close look at that, as well as on the economic side, and developed some methodologies and frameworks we can use to extend our fiscal sus

Finance committee  Relative to the Bank of Canada outlook, we basically see a larger adjustment in terms of the slowdown in household spending. We also see a steeper decline in residential construction activity. We have about a 10% decline in that activity from its peak level. What offsets that and

Finance committee  Thank you, Jean-Denis. As Jean-Denis said, we use our own macroeconometric model to put together our economic outlook. It's a model that shares some similarities with macro models at the Bank of Canada and at the Department of Finance. However, our outlook is entirely an indepen

Finance committee  We haven't compiled a detailed review of our forecasting accuracy or the forecasting bias over the almost 10 years that we've been doing this. It's still a very small sample to look at. We do compare our projections to, and did so in this report, the average accuracy of private s

Finance committee  I would just add that when we did prepare our assessment of the economic impact of different types of government measures from budget 2016, we did find that the multiplier effect or the increase from one dollar of spending was very similar, whether that was government undertaking

Finance committee  It is true that we have revised down our outlook for the level of nominal GDP. However, it hasn't been revised down by as much as that forecast adjustment factor. I think on average we've revised down our outlook by about $15 billion, just to put it in a rough ballpark. The choi

Finance committee  For 2017, the gap between our growth projections is around 0.3 percentage points, and I think you can point to the housing market there. The Bank of Canada has a larger negative contribution to growth in the Canadian economy for that year.

Finance committee  I think they have minus 0.2, though I could be wrong. We have a very small positive. For us, the adjustment in the housing market comes in the following year, and after that, it's a more gradual adjustment, but it's a very significant one.

Finance committee  Okay.

Finance committee  I agree. I think the numbers are probably correct in that chart. I would agree with the statement that we have seen real GDP growth and moderate employment growth over the last several quarters. I think the issue is more about what we see going forward.