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Finance committee  Thank you, Mr. Chair. I'll take a shot at it, because I really do sincerely appreciate the question. I feel like we have gone through these ebbs and flows where we've tried to provide more and less information and gauge the utility of such information to Parliamentarians and oth

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  We don't do more tangible fiscal projections beyond the forecast horizon 2025-26.

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  Correct. We do long-term fiscal sustainability analysis, but it's subject to a fair degree of sensitivity.

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  There is no return to balance printed in the budget.

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  We tried to print a short brief of this type of analysis in the budget. In today's terms, modelling the impacts of what we've seen in effective early learning and child care programs in Quebec, which feed-through to increased labour force participation, if we just apply that on a

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  There's a broad literature on this exact question. Of course, we do our own analysis within the department. Personally, I'm not in the camp of a “this thing pays for itself” type of conclusion. Depending on how you calibrate your models and expect feed-through into the economy, t

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  It's quite all right.

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  Thank you again for the question, Mr. Chair. I mean, there's no exact science. It is all a relative calibration. There was a whole lot of slack in the economy from the government's perspective as it was writing the budget, and we can see evidence of that even in the most recent

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  Thank you again for the question, Mr. Chair and Mr. Member. Of course, we do that kind of modelling. There are three significant tailwinds. One, as you said, is just the spillover of potential U.S. stimulus into Canada. Number two is just this kind of release, this kind of post-

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  Thank you again for the question. Yes, I would assume so. What we printed in the budget was a normalization path from both an economic and fiscal policy perspective. As the economy strengthens, you see employment and output get back to trend. Likewise along that path, there are

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Finance committee  Very good. Thank you for the question, Mr. Chair. I guess more precisely, all government spending feeds through into some real economic activity. Basic national income accounting would suggest that government spending would feed through and provide some sort of fiscal impulse in

May 11th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Public Accounts committee  I can stop there. Thank you for the question. Hopefully that table will spell out the math behind the question you're asking.

January 26th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Public Accounts committee  Remember, we had produced budget 2019, which is the reference in the public accounts, in March 2019. The government did provide a fall fiscal update in late 2019, where we had forecasted a deficit for the year of about $25 billion. There was an uptick in expected deficit for th

January 26th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

January 26th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick

Public Accounts committee  Thank you for the question. We do reconciliations, and I would ask members to look at page 34. I'll just pause one moment so folks can get to that page. Give me a thumbs-up when you're there. Perfect. You see the representation of Canada's debt dynamics in an international cont

January 26th, 2021Committee meeting

Nicholas Leswick