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October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee You have to understand that when you look at TPP, the status quo is not an option. You're either in or you're out. Essentially, when you analyze the drivers of your decision, you have to look at the difference between the two scenarios. Usually the status quo is an option when
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee TPP is a bit different because it encompasses major trade partners, i.e., the U.S. and Mexico, so there's a major impact on existing preferences. That's why, essentially, you have to look at both scenarios.
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee I'd say it's not for me to answer. I think it's not related to trade policy. You're essentially talking about the rise of corporate power in the world economy. Market power can be exercised under any trade policy environment, so it's a much wider concern than what we are talking
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee There's essentially always a danger associated with market power.
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee No, on the contrary, trade policy provides a level playing field for all players whether they're small or large. In that sense, trade policy is conducive to a better functioning of markets and a reduction in market power. Usually trade policy is very pro-competition.
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee Your question is more a philosophical one than an economic one, but indeed essentially the old principle of trade policy is based on the capacity of markets to adapt to changes. Of course in some cases, it could warrant government intervention if there are externalities that the
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee We're using slightly different models, with slightly different assumptions, leading to slightly different results. When it comes to the assumptions, we try to be as balanced as we can when we do our own simulation. We don't have an agenda when we do our simulation. We're essenti
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee No, we didn't model it.
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee We don't explicitly model the labour market when we do a trade policy assessment. Essentially, the focus of our analysis is on the reallocation of resources within the economy. We start with a specific level of employment, which is the current level of employment, and there is so
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee —of jobs. Usually since trade policy leads to reallocation of resources, the impact on aggregate employment is relatively small.
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee There's a limit to what the model can do. What we tried to do is to assess the impact of the most significant changes. When we're talking about trade policy and we're in an environment where tariffs are low, you cannot expect major swings and trade flows, and economic activity—
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee —so we're talking about marginal changes to the overall trade environment. In these circumstances rarely do trade policy initiatives generate big bangs.
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee We're always talking about incremental changes.
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs
International Trade committee The Tufts University model is different. It starts with the projections on trade and GDP that were generated by other simulations, such as the Peterson Institute, or the C.D. Howe Institute, or ours. Then it incorporates these projections into a model that focuses on other dimens
October 6th, 2016Committee meeting
André Downs