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Finance committee  Just the idea that you would get another loan to finance your down payment.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  Again, I think what we've said on this is that there are many features keeping house prices up. One worry that we have, a bit like CMHC's, is that by extending those loans they might feed into higher house prices. It's not clear that it's really benefiting the people we're trying to get into the market.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  I don't have that much to add about liquidity here or from what we've heard on the ground.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  I think in terms of the first one, the impact on construction activities and so on, one thing we had looked at was the impact of different measures such as the increase in the amount of cash you have put down on a house. We look at these different measures and we look at what resale activity would do around the implementation period, whether it had gone down and by how much, to sort of try to get an average.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  This is a concern that we have, that consumers might migrate towards the uninsured market because of those measures. This is definitely something we're really keeping a close eye on.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  Not quite. For instance, if you think about co-lending, there have been some stories about the fact that you can get a loan from a non federally regulated institution. The problem with that is that we have data from the second quarter of 2016, but we don't have.... We know that these are very small.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  Without time data, it is very difficult to do. It could be modelled, but it would be necessary to see if the model is really good, and if it can follow the data. Naturally, it is always a little more difficult to do with financial data, in the economic context. Empirically, I feel it would be very difficult to do.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  The two measures are closely related, in a way. My impression is that it depends a bit on the speed at which housing starts can take place. There is a reaction time that can, in the short term, affect demand more than supply. Of course, in places like Vancouver and Toronto, there may be more constraints and administrative delays in terms of housing starts.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  I'm not sure we've modelled your exact concern, but the stress tests we conduct are really potent. We look at scenarios that are dire to really make sure that the financial system is resilient to shocks that are maybe unlikely, but would be, if they were to happen, substantial in terms of their impact.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  Not in terms of demographics, but we've dealt with a substantial increase in mortgage rates, let's say through term-premium increases, and substantial increases in the unemployment rate, that type of thing.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  On the last question, if I understood correctly, just in terms of the impact on GDP, yes, we subtract about 0.3% to the level of GDP by 2018. That's the impact we have. As I said, there's a lot of uncertainty around that number, and we've noted that, just because these policies are relatively new.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  That would be the rough impact. In terms of the default rate being low, I think this is meant to be preventive. We don't want to implement policies while the default rate is really rising. That probably would be problematic. I think we want to put the policies in place before we have to deal with these problems.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  In terms of tailoring, if we want to have policies that are really tailored to specific markets, they would have to be more along the lines of provincial policies or even municipal policies. We've had some of that. That's the only thing I can really offer here. Again, I would go back to the idea of indebtedness and the fact that indebtedness is due not only to mortgages but also to consumer loans.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  In terms of the relationship, of course in theory, if a tax is imposed in Vancouver, for instance, investors who are affected would have an incentive to try to maybe shift to other cities for a roughly comparable investment. I think the one thing to keep in mind here is that, again, there are many factors that are underlying house price growth, and it's not only foreign investment.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc

Finance committee  As my colleague just mentioned, we think targeted policies are always better. That's why we prefer macro-prudential policies, let's say, rather than monetary policy—a bit for the reason you highlighted. Monetary policy points would be a very blunt tool to deal with financial stability issues compared to more targeted policies of the form that have been introduced, and they quite clearly involve trade-offs.

January 30th, 2017Committee meeting

Sylvain Leduc