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Environment committee  Well, I think, on the contrary, these numbers are small and they're very much in line with--

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  I don't know whether that's true or not. It may well be that there are analyses done in other industrialized countries. Japan might be a candidate. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see those kinds of numbers--

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  I haven't looked at the analyses done in every other single industrialized country.

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  These effects on GDP are not much greater than any number of analyses that have been done of greenhouse gas reduction targets in the past. Study after study shows typical effects on GDP in the range of 0% to 3%. So I see this as very much in line with the kinds of costs that are

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  One study was 2%. Every model has different assumptions. These numbers are never precise. You get a different range of results.

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  But we're talking about growing the economy by 23% between 2010 and 2020 and we're talking about jobs growing at essentially the same rate as they would under business as usual.

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  That's relative to business as usual, which is a growth of 50-something%.

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  Relative to business as usual, but Alberta's absolute growth would be higher than any other province.

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  Can you tell me which page of the report you're referring to, then?

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  No, we haven't. This is a macroeconomic analysis that looks at the traditional measures like GDP and employment. But I would add to what you were saying that there have been a number of Albertans calling for a more orderly, reasonable pace of development, particularly in the oil

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  In fact, I saw an EU analysis presented at the Poznan climate conference last year that showed a 2% impact, I think, in 2020, from the EU's proposals.

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  That may be so, but I think we're talking about different targets and different policy.

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  I prefer to present that in a way that I think makes more sense, which is to talk about the growth that you would have in the economy in a business as usual scenario, and the growth that you would have in the scenario that we presented.

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  It's very important to keep in mind, actually, that the status quo is very costly on a global level. We didn't put a figure on it in our study. However, it would be a huge mistake to limit the discussion to the cost of reducing emissions; we also have to talk about the cost of le

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley

Environment committee  We weren't able to model all the policies we wanted to. One of the areas where we didn't do all we wanted was in building retrofits. The models are better at modelling regulations and carbon pricing than they are at modelling subsidies and grants. I think we could have gone a bit

October 29th, 2009Committee meeting

Matthew Bramley