National Defence committee  I think it is definitely a bigger issue than Ukraine. He does want to challenge Europe as a whole, but I think if he can take Ukraine, the next targets would be other post-Soviet states that are not members of NATO. He has those to bring back into the fold before he turns to NATO.

National Defence committee  Which Russian allies do you have in mind, Belarus?

National Defence committee  They were just not very quick to condemn, but I wouldn't go as far as to say they're supporting. I think Russia is quite alone right now. Belarus is, for sure, participating, but it has basically been taken over by Russia, de facto.

National Defence committee  That's right. But I think it is still possible that at some point the KGB, the FSB, the security services will just come to a conclusion that he is now a liability and may replace him with someone from their circles as well. Think of the defence minister, Shoygu. He's not going to be a dove, but we can go back to dealing with the Russia of the late 2010s rather than the current Russia.

National Defence committee  It's a really difficult question. It's the million-dollar question, right? I think this is more of a bluff for him right now and a signal that he wants Ukraine really badly and is willing to threaten nuclear escalation if the west doesn't yield on Ukraine. I doubt that this is over the sanctions, per se.

National Defence committee  To be honest, I cannot imagine a scenario in which he can be removed externally, because of Russia's nuclear capacity. Even if he is removed internally, I very much doubt that Russia would be willing to send him to the International Court of Justice. I cannot see that happening either.

National Defence committee  If I could jump in here, in terms of the predictability of this attack on Kyiv, everybody who is familiar with both Russian and Ukrainian politics knew and was trying to say early on that an attack only on the Donbass region makes no sense to Putin. He does not need the Donbass; he already controls it.

National Defence committee  Sanctions are the goal. That's the hope, that oligarchs—one of the pillars of Putin's regime—could be his downfall if they calculate that not only sanctions but a longer-term, cold war, iron curtain type of situation will basically cut them off from their assets in the West. This is, right now, the goal.

National Defence committee  Sure, there's no problem.

National Defence committee  The reserves are there, but we are already seeing the effects of the sanctions. As I mentioned, the ruble is in free fall. The stock market didn't open because of where it would be and how hard the crash would be. I think he cannot last very long. He has diversified his economy somewhat and tried to make it less reliable on the dollar, probably thinking that the U.S. would be pushing him the hardest, but he diversified into euros, and now the EU is pushing him very hard.

National Defence committee  Well, it depends on how it ends. If Russian society mobilizes to stop this war, it would be hard to do it by making Putin give up on this war. The more likely scenario—which is early to be predicting, for sure—is that if the Russian people manage to stop this war, it will be through Putin's replacement by elites, somehow, who are not willing to go that far and bear the costs of these sanctions, or by some kind of popular mobilization that, again, forces the hands of elites to replace Putin with someone else.

National Defence committee  Russian citizens are very resilient. They lived through a really deep economic depression in the nineties. If his propaganda works domestically, Russian citizens may be willing to take on a lot of economic hardship. I think it is more likely that for the sanctions to be effective, it will take some combination of protests and elite action.

National Defence committee  We really do. I think there is no doubt that he is going for restoration, as much as he could achieve. As I already mentioned, Ukraine is under attack, but Belarus is de facto now controlled by Russia. What we saw in January was Russian troops going to Kazakhstan to support the President of Kazakhstan to suppress popular demonstrations.

National Defence committee  Yes. I think that his invoking of nuclear escalation is signalling how committed he is to winning this war in Ukraine and how important Ukraine is to him. For Putin, it is primarily about taking control of Ukraine, and that's why he is trying to divide the alliance and to send a signal to the international community that he should be let to do that.

National Defence committee  No, I don't think he should be let to do that, because Ukraine will not be the last country that he takes over. He has already de facto taken over Belarus. Belarus is used as a launching pad for his military operation. Arguably it is no longer an independent country, de facto. All the other post-Soviet states in the region should also fear if the west decides to yield to Putin's demands on Ukraine.