National Defence committee  Since you mentioned the U.S. so many times, let me go first very quickly. First, I am ferociously non-partisan, but that doesn't mean I'm not aware of the political situation. The partisan divide in the United States has been growing deeper over the years and is so deep now that in fact it has projected deep into the realm of the national security and foreign policy of the United States.

National Defence committee  I would love to be able to answer that. We have no way of providing an answer to that. I certainly agree with my partner here that we have no evidence of a significantly strong anti-Putin movement in Russia—

National Defence committee  I think that was significant. In fact, given that those individuals are probably the best educated, well trained and, therefore, most likely to find employment in other countries, that represented a significant loss. At the same time, it probably reduced some of the sources of internal pressure on Russia.

National Defence committee  I certainly agree with that. The issue here is a matter of human resources and, again, the will to fight. We're making a lot of references to World War I in this conversation, which is fascinating. Going back to World War I, Russian forces were advancing successfully in 1917 in a great Kerensky offensive, and then the military simply collapsed.

National Defence committee  Look, I certainly agree with my partner's comments on his analysis. First of all, we don't have a good understanding of what the level of opposition is to Putin in either his immediate circle or the public at large. Putin is in control. We don't have evidence of any popular uprising against him.

National Defence committee  I think we regularly get things wrong in net assessments of the strength of the two sides. We can count troops, look at weapons systems, look at economies and come to conclusions. Those are things that we can count. We tend to miss what we can't count. The will to fight has made the difference.

National Defence committee  Certainly, the units in the field, even if they were thrown in as poorly trained soldiers and disorganized.... There's a very cruel learning process in war. Even inexperienced soldiers become savvy veterans after a certain amount of fighting if they survive. Otherwise, they don't survive.

National Defence committee  Look, Russia can win in Ukraine in one of two ways. Either it can win on the ground militarily or it can win by cracking the resolve of the western nations that are supporting Ukraine. It has devoted a great deal of effort and attention, especially given the lack of progress on the ground militarily, to its continuing information warfare and influence operations.

National Defence committee  An old intelligence hand once told me that when your analysis is reduced to the remote psychoanalysis of what someone will do, you're in trouble. I can't claim to know what's inside of Putin's head on this issue, but certainly he is attempting to signal resolve. I think his brandishing of the nuclear issue is a useful way for him to create fear and alarm—essentially, a strategy of terror in the west.

National Defence committee  I think the public opinion on the street initially has been pushing the government. The valiant defence put up by the Ukrainians has been inspiring to many and has perhaps persuaded some governments to go further than they had imagined they would at the outset. At the same time, if we look at elections coming up in this country and if we look at political developments in the European countries, 2024 will be very interesting in terms of how the divided sentiments you point to will play out in elections.

National Defence committee  The idea of fence-sitters, especially in a developing world—in Africa, in Asia and in Latin America—is not a new one. Remember, going back to the years of the Cold War, we referred to these countries as third world countries, meaning “third world”, as opposed to being clearly in the Soviet camp or in the western camp.

National Defence committee  If we're talking about artillery shells and not smart weapons...because smart weapons are more complicated. The pieces to them involve more than a single country, and manufacturing is very, very complicated. If we're talking about old-fashioned artillery shells, then this is a matter of manufacturing capability.

National Defence committee  Let me start off with that. First of all, if by “losing” you mean that Russia succeeds in regime change in Ukraine, I think that would have a major impact. Even though NATO leaders have said they're not going to go to war with Russia in Ukraine, a great deal of western credibility is on the line in how this turns out.

National Defence committee  I agree with Mr. Rasiulis's remark that it depends on the outcome of these projected offensives and how they occur. Right now, I don't believe that either side would see a ceasefire as being in its interest. I believe Russia is strongly committed. The propaganda it is projecting at home and abroad is that it has the resolve to continue this at whatever cost, for as long as necessary.

National Defence committee  Look, China is watching this, and certainly what happens in Ukraine will have some effect on Chinese decision-making. Right now, China is a beneficiary of the developments in Ukraine. It completely...not completely, but it distracts, and it's a drag on the ability of the United States to confront China directly, although the United States is doing so.