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Transport committee  For me, one of the main risks there in terms of having a quicker intended return on investment is the potential for a higher fare structure. I mentioned that before; I'll leave it there. For me, that's a real risk, because once you drive up the cost, the number one determinant for modal choice for intercity transport is the cost, the price.

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene

Transport committee  I think there are some real risks to turning this over to the private sector. We have an existing entity. We have a Crown corporation. We can use that, and use it to our advantage. There are also a lot of real challenges or risks associated with privatizing that entity, one of which is how we value these incredible assets if we're turning them over to the private sector.

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene

Transport committee  As my colleague pointed out, the mantra in research on megaprojects is that they're over budget and over time, over and over again. I think of it more from the point of view of which model is riskier. We have some research pointing out that privately run projects and P3s come out looking like a cost-effective or cost-saving measure up front, but they often have a higher risk of project failure, which means that government comes in afterward and essentially has to pay more.

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene

Transport committee  Thank you for the question. If I may, I'll answer in English, because it's easier for me. That's a really good question. I think it was Mr. Bachrach who pointed out earlier that Via is largely subsidized in a way, and the sort of non-essential coach lines that do use a lot of diesel.

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene

Transport committee  The first time I was invited to be here, I was actually unable to attend, because I was on one of those trains going to Waterloo. Yes, it's a full-day journey. I think we can do a couple of things. One is that we can look at improving the existing rail service. There are some interesting ideas on the table about legislation or rules to prioritize passenger rail over freight.

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene

Transport committee  I agree that there are some real risks that come to my mind when I think about the possibility of this being a privately funded thing, and as you pointed out, a private firm has a fiduciary responsibility to obtain profits. I see a couple of risks there. One that's well-documented in the literature is a lack of transparency.

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene

Transport committee  You are talking about planes?

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene

Transport committee  There's a lot there. Presently, for air travel, if you factor in the time it takes to go to the airports—which in Toronto and Montreal are not in the centre of the city—and to go through security and all that stuff, you're talking about a trip of three hours and 15 minutes at the very least, and then meandering your way through once you get through to the other side.

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene

Transport committee  Thank you so much for the invitation to participate. It's really an honour to be here. I want to start by relaying a cautionary tale for how rail infrastructure megaprojects could go wrong, drawing from a new book by one of the world's leading experts on megaprojects and risk, Professor Bent Flyvbjerg.

February 8th, 2024Committee meeting

Professor Ryan Katz-Rosene