Foreign Affairs Committee on Oct. 19th, 2010

[James Lunney, Conservative, Nanaimo—Alberni, BC]

Yes. I guess the question was more about the governance capacity. I think I saw a remark go by that said there are only 100 kilometres of paved roads. We're talking about a region with very limited capacity, I gather. Some members here have actually been in Sudan. We haven't all had that privilege. I'm sure it would help us; you're going to be there shortly--members at the end of table--within a short time.

Well, look, let me take it another way. We know that in the north, in Khartoum, we have a leader against whom charges have been laid from the International Criminal Court, or at least there's a warrant, I guess, for his arrest. It hasn't seemed to impede his international travel, at least; it seems he's been still moving.

What is your take on how he and the regime in Khartoum are going to react to a successful referendum? Are they in survival mode right now politically? Do you think they're willing? We heard a remark about the Americans. Is it your assessment that the Khartoum regime is willing to peacefully accept a withdrawal, or a successful referendum, if it takes place?

[Jillian Stirk]

Thank you, Chairman.

It's difficult to speculate about what the reaction of the government in Sudan will be to the results of the referendum. We're encouraged by the fact that some interlocutors have indicated that they will respect the results of the referendum. That's what we've been focused on: encouraging both sides to stick to the terms of the CPA to carry out the referendum.

We've certainly been encouraging the Government of Sudan to avoid any actions that would predetermine the outcome of that referendum, to avoid a rhetoric that is inflammatory or that is not helpful in terms of demonstrating their commitment. To be quite honest, we've seen mixed messages from the governments of Sudan about how they propose to deal with the results, but the messages we've been passing to them have been very clear: that we expect that they will abide by the terms of the CPA and the results of the referendum.

[James Lunney, Conservative, Nanaimo—Alberni, BC]

I wanted to say, before a final question, that we appreciate that the Government of Canada has invested a lot of time, resources, and money in trying to help set the proper stage for these events through governance capacity. Since 2006 I think we've made over $1 billion in investments down there in the region.

But let me take it another way, with a final question on Darfur. I noticed that there was an article in The New York Times not long ago—I think it was in August 2010—that noted the increase of violence in Darfur. Is there a sense that the regime in Khartoum is trying to really soften up resistance in Darfur so that they don't get ideas about being the next to try to separate? Or is it that they're trying to suppress what might be a more problematic region in a smaller country afterwards?

[Jillian Stirk]

I think it's difficult to speculate about what exactly the motives are of the Government of Sudan at this stage, but one of the reasons I mentioned Darfur in my opening statement, although we are focused largely on the referendum process here, was that I think it's very important that the international community keep its eye on what is happening in Darfur. The situation there is of serious concern. We've been concerned by some of the recent developments, over the course of the past year, and we have certainly underlined those concerns to the government. Of course, we've had people present there, both providing humanitarian relief and through the peacekeeping operations.

Again, I think it's very important that the international community continue to remind the Government of Sudan about its obligations with respect to Darfur. Whether there or in south Sudan, there is a linkage between peace and stability. Instability in one region is bound to have an impact on the other.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you very much, Mr. Lunney.

I'm going to mix up the rotation a bit. Mr. Dewar will come back for his seven minutes, but what I'm going to do is move to Mr. Rae for five minutes and come back over to the other side. We'll get to Mr. Dewar when he comes back.

[Bob Rae, Liberal, Toronto Centre, ON]

I appreciate it, Mr. Chairman.

Welcome to the members of the department.

I'll just say that it appears there's a potential for a whole variety of serious challenges: in the north, in Darfur, in the east, between the north and the south, and within the south. This perhaps is not an easy question for you to answer, but is this now a priority for the department and for CIDA in terms of looking at what the potential risks are? Creation of refugees, potential for violence: the issues are really quite serious when you look at the potential challenges going forward.

[Jillian Stirk]

Yes, I would agree that we are at a critical point in terms of the situation in Sudan. I perhaps alluded to that in my statement. A number of elements are clearly of concern, whether they're around the referendum process, or relations between the north and south, or the situation in Darfur.

One of the indications of the seriousness with which the government takes this issue is the fact that we have three-year funding for our work on Sudan. We continue to have a significant degree of involvement both on the development side and on the diplomatic side, in terms of support for both the peacekeeping operations for the police work that's going on and the kinds of investments we're making around the referendum. The fact that we do have funding for our efforts confirmed for between now and 2013 is perhaps an indication of the seriousness with which we view this.

[Bob Rae, Liberal, Toronto Centre, ON]

Would the funding include real assistance with respect to the governance issues in the south? One of the things we've heard a lot about--I think Mr. Proudfoot referred to it, and we've certainly been reading a lot about it in our background work--is the degree of inter-ethnic violence and inter-tribal violence in the south, the regional issues in the south, and the need to clearly look at, dare I say it, federal arrangements or some other kinds of arrangements that will look at devolution. I mean, Kenya has just been through a long process looking at devolution there. It seems to be a concept that's gaining a lot of support within a number of countries in the region.

Maybe that's a role that Canada could contribute to in looking to that. I think we're really going to have a governance, state stability issue in the south that's going to emerge very quickly as we go forward.

Is that a fair comment? Because it looks like it.

[Jillian Stirk]

I think it is a fair comment. We're certainly very concerned about the realities on the ground in the south, the potential for instability.

Maybe my colleague would like to say a few more things about the specifics.

[Douglas Scott Proudfoot]

First, I'd note that the potential is already there. Whether the south chooses unity or independence, the governance issues will be there regardless.

And that's why, for some time, both CIDA and START, within DFAIT, have been investing a fair amount in the governance area. It's the third area of concentration for CIDA, supporting the Government of Southern Sudan's indigenous governance capacity through a series of capacity-building programs. And likewise for START in areas such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of ex-combatants, community security, and arms control, and the like.

[Bob Rae, Liberal, Toronto Centre, ON]

This is kind of a stupid question, but have we got enough money in the bank to deal with the potential for a real crisis in the winter of 2011? Let's say you have a couple of million people moving from one part of the country to another, and several issues have not been resolved. It seems to me you've got a lot of potential for real trouble if we don't begin to anticipate. It's not just us; it's the AU and it's everybody else in the region that has to come to grips with it.

[Jillian Stirk]

If I may, Chairman, I think certainly the government is seized of the seriousness of the situation, of the potential for instability. At this juncture we're certainly very focused on trying to support the processes that are in place.

I think the international community is also very much seized of the issue. It certainly has been a topic for discussion in a number of different international forums. Certainly in the bilateral consultations that I have with a whole range of countries on varied issues, Sudan is often one of those issues of common concern that we raise.

My own personal sense, if I may, is that the international community is seized of this issue and that, as Canada, we stand ready to support, in whatever way we can, some of those things Mr. Proudfoot has talked about.

And in terms of predicting what the outcome might be, I think we have to wait and see what the results of the referendum are and then be ready to respond as required.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you.

Thank you, Mr. Rae.

We're going to move over to Mr. Van Kesteren for five minutes.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

Chair, I will be splitting some of my time with Ms. Brown.

I'm just going to ask you a couple of bullet questions. A couple of things came to mind. You talked about the Sudanese debt. Do you know what the total national debt of Sudan is at this point?

[Jillian Stirk]

I don't. I don't know if my colleagues do.

Do you know the total debt of Sudan...?

My colleague says he believes it's somewhere around $30 billion. It's very large.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

Is that going to be split evenly between the south and the north?

[Jillian Stirk]

This is one of the issues that is under negotiation, and it will, of course, be a very sensitive issue.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

You talked about some of the work you did in disarming some of the rebels and such. Was most of that done in the south or in the north?

[Jillian Stirk]

It was both, I believe.

[Douglas Scott Proudfoot]

The DDR programs are in both the north and the south, because the combat during the civil war was in both the north and the south. There are groups both in southern Sudan and the border areas....

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

Obviously they're going to need policing. They're going to need an army. Have you thought about those things? Do we have in place something to assist them with that?

[Douglas Scott Proudfoot]

The Government of Southern Sudan has an army, the SPLA. Canada is not providing support to either army, either north or south.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

You talked also about outside forces. Are you concerned about China's influence on the region in the north--especially, I should say, specifically with respect to the oil?

[Jillian Stirk]

China has been an important investor in Sudan, and like other members of the international community, we hope that they will play a constructive role in whatever peace process emerges.

[Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative, Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON]

Thank you.

Ms. Brown.