Thank you.
I think on the question of population movement, one has also to bear in mind that the southerners in the north will not necessarily be welcome in the south. Many of them are considered to be politically on the wrong side because they didn't stay. You have the age-old problem of any refugee community anywhere—the context in Afghanistan is similar—where populations that didn't stay and fight are mistrusted when they return home because they weren't involved in the fight for independence, if you like.
In terms of numbers, we're looking at around half a million who would voluntarily return and probably another million who would be forced out if the government of the north decided they would not be welcome in the south. It's not clear where they would go. I think there's a lot of concern they would end up in sort of no man's land along the border, because they wouldn't be welcome in their host communities necessarily and they wouldn't be welcome in the north. The border is, of course, also where the oil fields are. A lot of land is being demarcated now for oil fields, so is not available for use and for people to camp out on.
You also have in three main areas west of Abyei, around the Heglig-Bentiu area and Upper Nile, long stretches of border between nomadic groups and the river. If those borders are closed, or there's fighting along the border, as we expect, then you have probably a couple of million nomads who can't get their cattle or their camels to water.
That will be a delayed problem that I just raise because the movement won't normally happen until February or March, so it won't necessarily be a movement related, strictly speaking, to the referendum, but it will be a result of potential border skirmishes. So you're looking at movement of somewhere between half a million and possible three million or three and a half million people.