Foreign Affairs Committee on Feb. 24th, 2014

[Paul Dewar, NDP, Ottawa Centre, ON]

Thank you, Chair.

I thank our guests.

Mr. Green, I'm not sure if you remember, but I actually met you briefly in Lebanon. I think it was during the 2009 election, in Beirut. It's good to have you here.

Ms. Momani, you've given us some very specific recommendations on refugee resettlement, on matching funds, and on engaging students. If we were to open our doors and give opportunities particularly to students, as you identified, how would we be able to match up people? It's a very well-educated population, and I think we all know that. Are you envisioning universities hosting students and bringing them in that way and expedite...? Is that what you're referring to in your recommendation?

[Dr. Bessma Momani]

Yes, absolutely. In fact, the universities are very open to this idea. However, for them to be careful, if you will, about their own balance books, they need to see the money up front, and that's not necessarily the case. In other words, they want to see equivalent cash in a bank account in order to say yes, that a Syrian student will stay with this host family and will eat the same dishes that family is making, and in a dollar figure. It's not necessarily feasible for many people, obviously, to say that they have an excess liquidity in their bank account forecasting for their expenses.

But I think there are plenty of Syrian people—and I've heard from many—who are very much willing to open their doors to host many of these Syrian students whose education has been cut short. If there's any rebuilding effort in Syria in the future, we need them. We need them in education. We need them in engineering. We need them in medicine. There's nothing like the great universities of our country. We could open the doors to those great students and have for them the best top-notch western education that we could provide.

[Paul Dewar, NDP, Ottawa Centre, ON]

I'm sympathetic, because we've talked about and certainly have encouraged the government to open the doors on refugee resettlement. We've had a great experience in this country with South Asian refugees. I remember well that at the time the government had a limit of 8,000 that they were going to take in, and that turned into 60,000 because people in the community sponsored refugees.

You're hinting at this idea of.... I think the government is always open when there's a suggestion that it won't cost money. Do you believe that there would be an ability to match people up through host families, through family members, to take in...? How many would you consider reasonable?

[Dr. Bessma Momani]

I think 20,000 is very reasonable. I have to add here that many Syrians have small businesses that are family-run businesses. There's an immediate opportunity right there to actually give many, whether they are students or not, part-time jobs. When we're talking about a way to integrate people into the community, there are many opportunities to bring Syrians into this country, and they would have a host family very ready.

Again part of that is through family reunification because it may not necessarily be your child, but it's your cousin, your uncle, or your aunt. These kinds of family ties go deep in this country where there are approximately 100,000 Syrian Canadians who are very much eager to really help as many members as they can.

[Paul Dewar, NDP, Ottawa Centre, ON]

I certainly remember here in Ottawa we had Project 4000, and that was 4,000 South Asians, mostly Vietnamese refugees. You see them now fully integrated and terrific citizens, so that's a good point.

Mr. Green, I wanted to ask you a question. You do a little bit of work for the Canadian government vis-à-vis Iran. I want your take on that because we have heard a little bit about Iran. Iran's part of this scenario, and we really have to be serious about it. From your work, and the work you're doing with the Canadian government, what can you give us on this in terms of how to deal with Iran and the crisis?

We obviously have a political crisis with Hezbollah, but a political solution here. How do you engage there, and how do you get them to obviously not do more damage? From your background and your involvement, what advice would you give us regarding Iran?

[Mark Green]

Do you mean as it relates to the Syrian conflict?

[Paul Dewar, NDP, Ottawa Centre, ON]

Absolutely.

[Mark Green]

Again, our focus is primarily in trying to identify those areas outside regime control and create some mechanism, some support, for democratic institutions, and begin to bring together those who have a stake in the community survival, particularly marginalized groups such as women and youth.

What we have discovered is that there is a large plurality of Syrians who are moderate, who don't ascribe either to the regime's extreme rhetoric and propaganda or to al-Qaeda, and are looking to create some sense of normalcy in community leadership. Our focus and our recommendation is that we identify those areas and invest heavily in creating the mechanisms while there's still time. Every day that goes by is a bad day. The damage gets worse, the feelings get hardened, and the chance to be able to pull things together for that day we all hope for when Assad is gone gets less and less.

That's really what our focus is. We think that's the right answer for an organization like ours.

[Paul Dewar, NDP, Ottawa Centre, ON]

In terms of Iran, you don't see anything you're doing presently, the work focused on Iran, that is relevant to Syria. That's a separate equation you're dealing with.

[Mark Green]

We're looking at them separately, yes.

[Paul Dewar, NDP, Ottawa Centre, ON]

I have one last question for you, Mr. Green. I'm very interested in this idea of creating capacities, particularly with women and peace-building.

Have you had any conversations with our government about those kinds of programs and how they are working, or shared that information with our government?

[Mark Green]

Sure, and we'll continue to do so. In fact we have put together a proposal to expand the work we're doing, particularly with the Syrian Women's Network, because we think there is a lot of hope and promise there.

It's methodical. No one expects changes overnight obviously, especially in that environment, but we have great hope. So, yes.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Mr. Goldring, sir, you have seven minutes.

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

Thank you for appearing here today.

I notice here Senator John McCain. You must be doing work in the Ukraine too. I know you have been there for election monitoring over the years. Senator McCain was there in Kiev I think a day after I arrived. I was speaking in Maidan in the square the day before he was. It's pretty incredible with 400,000 to 500,000 people out in that square. They certainly do need a lot of democracy rebuilding there as well.

My question is on Syria, first of all to get a perspective on the size of the situation. You say the U.S. intelligence community estimates...and you have a number. Are these all the opposition numbers, and what is the comparable government number? In other words what is the balance of numbers of boots on the ground on each side? Is there some kind of idea at all?

[Mark Green]

I don't have that information, but I can certainly get back to the committee with further data.

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

It would give us some kind of perspective, because we know that the government forces have the big sticks. They have the big guns. The opposition forces don't, so they are at a distinct disadvantage there. The government technically, and I can see strategically, can stand back lobbing shells at particular communities and wearing them out by attrition.

Is there any sense that the opposition is losing ground or losing their effectiveness? This is all part and parcel of what are they're faced with—odds of two to one, odds of four to one, or...?

As well, in terms of all the weaponry, the Syrian government seems to be in no hurry to relieve or cut back the warfare or their efforts.

[Mark Green]

I would have two reactions or two answers to the question.

First off, it's important to recognize that it's not a bilateral fight. One of the things that make this so extraordinarily difficult for everyone involved is the fragmentation that's involved and the number of groups. Our estimate is that 74 outside nations have people fighting right now in Syria. You also have changing alliances, which makes it extraordinarily difficult.

Second, with respect to rising and falling fortunes, I will say, as Senator McCain pointed out, that we have seen more people killed in just the last several weeks since, ironically, the peace negotiations began than in any other time in the conflict.

The other piece that's important is that clearly time is not an ally of the rebels. Assad has made it very clear. We've seen the negotiations fail over and over again, in part because there appears to be no sense of urgency on the side of the government, of course, to bring about a solution. The passage of time is something they're comfortable with.

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

There also seems to be an unlimited supply of weaponry coming in. Would that not be something to approach in some way, with some kind of a weapons embargo or weapons blockade, something to slow it down there? As long as the weapons are predominantly coming in for the government, and the big guns are coming in for the government, it's inevitable. Even if we don't understand the numbers and say the numbers are 50-50, the one side is 90% and the other side is 10% armed; that's inevitable in itself.

Is there nothing they can do to blockade weaponry or slow it down?

[Dr. Bessma Momani]

That's called a UN Security Council resolution. It's the only way to do that legally. Both China and Russia have continued to basically block that and veto it.

In answer to your previous question, in fact if you look at the manpower of the Syrian army versus the collective opposition—the Free Syrian Army, ISIS, and Islamic Front—the difference is not that much. In fact they are almost equal in terms of what's been left of the Syrian army, because so many defectors have left, if you will.

The challenge, as you said, is the guns. Syria does not only have replenishment through much of the legal channels via the Russians but they also have air superiority, which has become the most devastating thing. They're not actually sending troops to go in battle anymore, because they don't even trust their own troops. They're just basically bombarding things from the sky and they are getting replenished constantly.

The other thing too is that where the Syrian army has been supported by both Hezbollah and by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, those are two militias that actually have a lot of background and history. In other words, they're organized and effective fighters. If you look at the Free Syrian Army, however, they are already ragtag to begin with. They're defectors from the Syrian army. Then you add ISIS and Islamic Front, which are basically based on volunteers. Yes, the volunteers are coming from all across the world, and in some cases through the region, but they are not necessarily a real professional army. Their tactics and logistics are also hampering their effectiveness.

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

So they're not even bringing in those point-and-shoot missiles, or whatever you call them, that can take down aircraft for the opposition.

[Dr. Bessma Momani]

You need heat-seeking MANPADS. That's the biggest thing that has prevented I think a real balance of power in this conflict. As many have pointed out, the fear is that they will be used against commercial planes. That's why none of the western powers are giving them.

Now, the Saudis have recently said that they may change their mind on that. As to whether or not that was a leak to the media, as of Thursday or Friday I think it was, in order to get things kind of pushing and moving at the Security Council, maybe; the point is that they don't have the same kind of weaponry that the Syrian army does.

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

Supposing this conflict ends; how do you then start rebuilding a democratic institution there? What do you start with? You said that you start at the education level. Is that at the university level, or do you go right to the basic streets of a community, so that they understand how their community interacts with their central government, and get them promoting principles and policies and political parties? How do you do it?

[Mark Green]

First off, you start now, and you don't wait for when everything is settled and the day after is here. That work needs to begin, and in fact is under way. You do it at the local level. You do it at the provincial level. You go to those areas that are free from Assad's control and begin to create some sort of dialogue about the decisions that have to be made and the basic provision of day-to-day items.

When you have no government at all, no governing structures, nobody has a stake in the survival of the leadership of the community itself. Then you create real despair, and of course despair is the perfect condition for extremism. That's when you have your real problems. But the key thing is that work needs to be under way now. It can't be done after the fact. At least it can't be done easily after the fact. We need to continue doing that work right now.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you, Mr. Goldring.

We're going to move over to the last question of the first round. Mr. Casey, welcome to the committee.

[Sean Casey, Liberal, Charlottetown, PE]

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Ms. Momani, I was interested in your comments with respect to the refugee effort and where we are and where you think we should be, so I'd like to explore that a little bit. If I heard you correctly, the Government of Canada has set a goal or a target or a limit of 1,600 of which we've seen 200, and you think that a more reasonable realistic goal is 20,000.

I have a couple of questions arising out of that. One, what's your assessment of where we are now? You say we're at 200 of 1,600. So what's your assessment of why we're at 200, whether that represents a reasonable effort, and if it doesn't, how should it be improved? I guess I need a sense of the size of the Syrian descendant community in Canada to perhaps have you talk about that and how we get from 200 to 1,600 to 20,000.