What I'm really saying is that not only was this estimate out by a scope of $42 million, but the previous one, for which we now know the actual expenditures—the previous budget year, beyond this one—is also different from the estimates.
I understand that it changes. I'm not holding people to fault, in the sense that this is our best estimate—that's why these are called “estimates”, of course. The issue becomes that we're now saying that we need to spend $728 million this fiscal year based on what we've already done through supplements (A), (B), and (C). But next year, you're saying, we're going to spend $687.8 million—give or take, without rounding it off nicely—which is $2 million more than you did in this budget estimate year, but the reality is that it's actually $40 million less than we're estimating that we're going to spend.
So since we were off by such a piece last time we estimated, how do we have any sense of confidence that we're not literally off by the same scope on this particular estimate? And if we are, if we needed $728-plus million this fiscal year—because inflation is inflation, and I recognize that there's been somewhat of a leveling out of wages and some reductions, albeit at CFIA there have been increases in the number of people, and I've acknowledged that and have done so in the past.... That being the case, how do you intend to manage with about $40-odd million less next year than you did this year, considering that you actually needed to get an additional $42 million more than you needed when you estimated at the beginning of last year?
I guess I'm not saying that you're not good at arithmetic; I'm just not so sure you're good at forecasting. What gives us confidence that the forecast for next year through the main estimates is any better than last year's forecast?
There are two parts to help me with this. One is giving me a sense of confidence that you forecasted correctly—because it is a forecast, and I admit that. And if it is a forecast, have you built in some sort of contingency fund, because that's normally what I used to do as a corporate chair when I was in municipal governance. Is there one inside that estimate?
Second, where do you intend to find the $40-odd million that you actually have to take out of what you just spent?
Could you help me with that? And if we run out of time, if you could supply it in writing, that would be wonderful—if you run out of time.
Thank you, Mr. Everson.