Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you to the members of this committee for taking on this study. A lot of the farm groups have made a lot of pertinent points, so I won't underscore them again, but this is déjà vu all over again. As has been said, we went through these same things in 2013 and 2014.
I'm hearing a few different things this time around. There's an apology from the railways, which is great. I'm going to go to my banker tomorrow and tell them they can't foreclose, because I've got an apology. However, it's a good start.
I do have a bit of a concern in that what we talked about, which led to Bill C-30 and is now underscored in Bill C-49—there is some more work to be done on that, with a couple of amendments—still comes down to consultation among all of the supply chain to find out what exactly will be required, when, and so on. As Rick said, the prime months for shipment to get that premium dollar are in the fall. Somehow we're still missing that.
I was a little bit concerned when the railways talked about how they allow for 3% growth. From talking to industry, it seems they need 13%, but they're not making that connection. They were talking too about last year's big crop, but in reality it's less than 3% of the five-year average increase. If they're talking 3%, there shouldn't have been a problem.
Also, we're only talking about agriculture here, but there are a lot of other commodities on the rail as well, and I understand that there are concerns from all of them, as we found out in 2013-14. It wasn't just farmers. They began the push to see some changes, but everybody who hauled a bulk commodity, including intermodal and so on, was talking about delays, about boats sitting waiting, about not being able to off-load boats and so on because the capacity wasn't there to do that.
Since that time, there have been tremendous increases in infrastructure through the full supply chain. The railways are now talking about making some of those investments, but it still comes down to track capacity. To get to the bottom of that is again a collaborative effort. It takes data on a week-by-week, quarter-by-quarter basis, going through Quorum and Transport Canada, to figure out where the hot spots are, where there's a problem. Then the shippers, the grain buyers, can make a decision that, for instance, we're not going to run to Thunder Bay this week, because there'll be this type of capacity problem there. We'll run west coast, or we'll run not west coast Vancouver but Prince Rupert, because we see some bottlenecks and capacity problems on those lines.
Again, it needs a collaborative effect, quarter by quarter, week by week, to know exactly what's going to happen. I'm a little shocked that some of the line companies don't seem to understand, or the railways can't figure out, how much volume they're going to have to handle when StatsCan is out there saying what the crop is going to be before I've even brought my combine into a few of the fields. The numbers are always out there. They're reasonably close, within the margin of error. I think what our crop outputs are going to be has to be brought into the argument as well.
Most farmers do those StatsCan surveys. I know you guys get more than you want to do. They call before breakfast and they call after supper, when you're busy.
It's great that you're doing this. It's great that you're having this analysis. Again, the problem comes down to the fact that it's tied up in the Senate and there's no push to break it free there. I know that work was done in trying to split the bill, and that was a good move, but there are things that the Minister of Transport can do by order in council to continue what sunsetted in July and get the interswitching back at 160 kilometres, which works well. We didn't pick that number out of the sky. We sat down with the new design that's out there. I mean, at one point there were almost 2,000 elevators across western Canada. Now there are 300, with the same kind of capacity. They're all located a lot further than the 30-kilometre interswitching, which was the rule at that point. We sat down and drew concentric circles where it made sense, and 160 kilometres was the magic number.
I know they're talking about a long haul now of 1,200 kilometres or some such thing, but the average haul out of western Canada at the port in Alistair's country is 1,400 kilometres. We're still a little short there. I'm not sure how workable it is or whether the minister has the ability to tweak that or not. It all comes down to....
Japanese buyers are usually the ones who talk about three things. They love our quality, they're always concerned about the price, and they always bring up the ability to ship in a timely way. Those are the three things I heard year after year after year about Japan, even before we had our problems in 2013-14.
Moving beyond that, there's still a tremendous amount of work to be done to make sure that when we're bidding against the U.S., against Australia, against Brazil, and against the other major producers in the world, we're there in a timely way and can make this thing work.
I know one of the major shippers. He owns 40-some Panamax boats. He doesn't like to come into the west coast because he doesn't want to sit there. There's only money in moving and continuing to move. There were some changes made, and he is now doing some work out of there, but still it's not his first port of call. He needs other things happening.
A tremendous amount of infrastructure is going to be needed. I know there is talk about the corridors. The TPP has now been signed, and that means a lot more product going out, providing we ratify it in a timely way and we're one of the first six, so let's get 'er done. At the end of the day, of course, it's about making sure that we can load those boats and get them on the water and to our buyers overseas.
I'll stop with that, because I know you guys need some time for questions. You also have a vote coming up, I understand.