This is one area where I think a longer historical perspective is very important. We've often seen commentary, or perhaps some of the other witnesses who've appeared before you compare profit margins or aggregate profits just on a year-over-year basis and say, “Our profits aren't much higher than they were last year. They're a little bit higher but not much higher, and our margin isn't much different than it was last year.”
The longer historical analysis, which I compiled from Statistics Canada data, shows that the aggregate period of time since the lockdowns has been marked by increased profit margins that have stayed high, and aggregate profits that have more than doubled since prepandemic norms. That historical perspective is, I think, very important.
In terms of what's going to happen in the future, I think it's an open question. We may see some downturn in those profit margins as a result of the stabilization of supply chains internationally. Of course, we can't predict what's going to happen with some of the factors that Professor Brander mentioned earlier, like climate events and episodes like the bird flu, whether there's going to be further expansion of hostilities in Ukraine or whether there'll be another energy price spike. We can't project all of that, but, in the absence of further major shocks like that, I frankly would expect some normalization of profit margins in retail back towards something at least in the direction of normalcy. It's hard to say.
You'll see in the last quarter covered by the data that there's been a moderation of profit margins, not to anywhere near where they were before the pandemic, but not at the same peaks we experienced during the panic buying of the lockdowns and so on.
There may be some normalization ahead, but that being said, I think it is important for Canadians to understand that the food prices they are paying reflect in part the cumulative impact over the whole supply chain of profit taking by companies that had the power to charge Canadians much more than they needed just to cover their own costs.