First I'd like to thank the committee for the invitation. It's an opportunity to discuss something that I think we simply don't talk about enough yet in Canada.
I'll be speaking in French, but I'm willing to answer questions in French and English.
Tonight I would like to offer five thoughts on Canada's Indo‑Pacific strategy and Canada‑China relations.
The first is the global impact of China's emergence on power dynamics. The second is power dynamics in a region I focus on, Southeast Asia, which I think is representative of the existing challenges and opportunities given that it's the neighbouring region closest to China. It has lengthy experience dealing with China. Third, I would like to talk about the role of Chinese diasporas in Southeast Asia. Fourth, I will make a connection with the role of Asian and Chinese diasporas in Canada. Finally, if I have time, I would like to talk about the intentions of Canada's Indo‑Pacific strategy and perhaps provide an initial report card.
What are the power dynamics that underlie the emergence of China and, at times, the tensions between Canada and China? We hear a lot about that these days. I think we are at a major turning point: the end of the San Francisco system.
This system was put in place in 1951, at the end of the Second World War, as a result of a treaty between the Allies and Japan. The system has shaped the regional co‑operation of Asian, Canadian and American players. It meant that the Asian and Indo‑Pacific regions were under American multilateralism, and therefore American influence. This system combined bilateral relations between the United States and certain countries led by the United States, giving allies access to its market and international multilateralism—I am thinking, in particular, of the Bretton Woods institutions—because it encouraged Asian countries to participate in international organizations and forums. In the context of the Cold War, this structure dominated international relations in Asia, having a direct and sometimes negative impact on the development of other regional initiatives, as was the case with the Indochina War.
Today, in my opinion, we have gone beyond the San Francisco system. We are in a period of declining U.S. dominance in the region. We are now seeing a proliferation of commercial and financial bilateralism that takes the form of country‑to‑country relationships or ones between certain regions and China, for example, that largely bypass the United States. This challenge to the San Francisco system's multilateralism also calls into question the power of influence of the U.S. and Canada in the region. East and Southeast Asian countries' challenge to the San Francisco treaty has generated a series of new initiatives, and China is often at the centre of them.
Rather than American multilateralism, I would like to talk about Chinese multilateralism and how China practises it. One way is China's increasing and intensifying participation in various multilateral programs. These include the Shanghai Five, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the six‑party talks, in which China is playing a larger and larger role. It has joined international organizations, but also Asian regional organizations. It has set up its own international bodies. It practises a form of flexible multilateralism that involves encouraging states to participate and collaborate without necessarily interfering in their domestic policies, which is typical of China.
There have also been some troublesome attempts at rapprochement with Japan that have not worked so far. However, what is clear is that China's approach is increasingly assertive in the Southeast Asia and Indo‑Pacific regions. In a number of areas, it seems to be competing with the United States.
What kinds of tensions are going to emerge? What does that mean? That's a big debate right now among experts on the region.
Many researchers see China as the catalyst against which foreign policy choices made by countries in the region must be evaluated. Trends observed in multilateral relations are shaped by the U.S.-China duality.
Other authors are more optimistic. Despite the negative impact of this emergence, they see it as resulting in more space for dialogue. As such, they welcome the fact that some organizations are dominated by the west, or the American bloc, and others by Asia.
How should we interpret the current movement? There are two schools of thought. The first is informed by realism: China's emergence will inevitably lead to confrontation or rivalry between China and the American bloc countries. Some authors say this region is ripe for rivalry.
The second school of thought is more positive. It suggests that China's ascendance is attributable to trade and various international organizations that create space for co-operation.
China needs foreign markets for its domestic development, and other countries need China for important goods.
That means it's possible to create a community of security.
To conclude this first part of my intervention, here's what I believe is important. First, to be sensitive to issues around the Chinese perspective on its own emergence. Second, to see that spaces for socialization and interaction are positive and preferable to spaces that isolate and put up walls. Third, to understand that Canada is well positioned to play an important role in this dynamic.
I think Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy is intended to help Canada play that role, but it has certain limitations, which we can discuss afterwards.