Let me be very clear with the honourable member. While I'm not aware of a formal strategy, or a formal impact, that has been done—I'm just being very clear with you—since this most recent development with the State of Michigan, we have a very good handle on what the impact would be, because we know how important Line 5 is now, so we know what the lack of Line 5 would be.
That's why, first and foremost, the most important plan for us is to prevent that shutdown. That's what we're working on every day. It's a full-court press at the political and diplomatic levels. This is an existing and operating pipeline. It does not represent an increase in production. It delivers a much-needed product for the United States, and it has done so for 65 years. It's integral to their energy security, just as it is to ours.
Let me be very clear. The U.S. needs the product. They rely on it. Michigan relies on it to heat its homes. Sixty-five per cent of its propane needs are in the upper peninsula and 55% statewide—from Line 5. It's a lifeline for refineries in Toledo, Ohio, and also for the petrochemical industry in Quebec, for the two refineries that are directed by Line 5 and Line 9, which are in Lévis, just outside Montreal. It's also a lifeline, as I said, for refineries in Ohio and at least two in Toledo. Ohio's would have to close in the event of a shutdown, due to insufficient supply.
This is a product that will still head southbound, but without Line 5, that means it will be on rail, on truck and on ship, all of which are less reliable. With regard to oil by rail and the tragedy of Lac-Mégantic in 2013, it's far less safe.