I'll respond to that.
One of the concerns is, what will be the impact on the economy as a whole? There are two ways to meet Kyoto. One is by actually reducing emissions, and that's what our sector and manufacturing have done. We've done even better than the minus 7% that manufacturing did; we've done over 50%.
As a whole, Canada won't be able to do that. As a number of the speakers have said, it's just too late. Using the figures of the previous government from their green report, our emissions gap was estimated at 240 megatonnes in 2002. Then they talk about how the economy has increased. The emissions gap is more likely in the range of 270 megatonnes and could be greater. It probably has increased since then.
So it's not really economics; it's just simple mathematics. We have at least a 270-megatonne gap. The cost is $20 a tonne. In the short time still available, we aren't going to be able to address this, other than by going to credits.
There will be some sectors, such as ours and manufacturing, and some provinces, such as Quebec, that will achieve the Kyoto targets. But as an economy, as a country as a whole, we won't. We will have to send billions of dollars abroad, and that's not good for the economy.
What we're arguing for is the recognition that we're going to do a lot better, if we can recognize that our improvement in environmental performance is tied to new investment. I think the chart, which we tabled, shows that.
There aren't that many things the Canadian government can do to attract investment here instead of elsewhere. We can't do too much about the dollar, and certainly we can't do too much about what's happening in the Middle East, China, or India. But one thing the government could do, which we hope all parties would support, would be to improve capital cost allowance provisions. This would be something that money could be used to invest in, that would be returned later in taxes, and that would get us the kind of new investment that would help improve our performance.
Over the medium and long term, this will drive intensity improvements that can probably reach reductions and absolute reductions. Our sector's experience shows this.
But as a lot of the people have said, it's short, medium, and long term. In the short term, it's just too late, unless we send all this money abroad, which doesn't make sense.