What do we do about this problem? Our organization believes that a steadily rising price on carbon pollution needs to be the foundation of any climate plan. It certainly isn't the only tool, but we believe it is the most cost-effective way to accelerate the transition to a cleaner economy and to produce innovative solutions.
This particular approach of focusing on carbon pricing as the major tool has been confirmed by the two Nobel prize winners in economics.
We can achieve the same end goal. As I said, I believe we all want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. You can do it through carbon pricing and other tools, or you can focus more heavily on a regulatory approach. You get to the same end, but the difficulty with a regulatory approach is that it's extremely costly to administer and very inflexible. Our feeling is you should use that at a minimum, and focus on the pricing.
I assume you're familiar with the Ecofiscal Commission's work. They did a study that compared the two. They looked at the period from 2015 to 2020. They did the analysis to determine the difference between going with pure carbon pricing and going with the regulatory approach. The regulatory approach resulted in a 3.8% hit to GDP. That's a 3.8% decrease. There was very little impact from carbon pricing.
This isn't anything to do with politics. It's about finding where you get the best bang for your buck and how you can get the job done without impacting the economy as much.
Our primary ask is for price certainty for industry and households. We would like to see some confirmation that the carbon price will keep rising steadily at least past 2030.
The question raised earlier was about how high it has to go. We think the biggest impact is from that certainty. People in businesses know it's going to keep rising, and so they start to change behaviour. That's going to make a bigger difference than arguing about how high it has to go.
We also need to make sure the carbon price covers all emissions, including methane fugitive emissions, which are quite significant, and is as upstream as possible to have the biggest effect.
We also need to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and other supports for the fossil fuel industry, such as tax and royalty breaks. We've seen some progress at the federal level, and we hope that as a federal government you will also use some pressure on the provinces, in particular B.C. and Alberta, which have significant supports in place for a well-established fossil fuel industry that we need to transition out of.
The revenue issue is key so that carbon pricing isn't seen as a tax grab. We're seeing some push-back in B.C. right now because it's no longer revenue neutral. We also need to look at the carbon tax revenue so that it doesn't, as was mentioned here, disproportionately harm the poor.
Take, for example, the recent work by Mark Cameron at the Clean Prosperity Institute. He comes from a Conservative background. He has finally given us the clear evidence that we've heard you discussing in the House of Commons, the numbers on what this is going to cost.
Mark Cameron has done this, and we have left some copies of that here. He shows that if you return the tax revenue to households, poor and lower-middle-class people will come out further ahead and most of the burden will be borne by the wealthy. I hope you will have a look at that.
We feel that B.C. clearly shows... There was some mention earlier that the emissions did not decrease while the B.C. carbon tax was in place, and I need to correct that. There are eight independent studies that show that while the carbon tax was rising, emissions did fall and GDP wasn't affected.
We think there's an opportunity for Canada to be a leader in the world on market-based solutions to climate change.